Britain left the EU ten years ago. His politics have been an undisciplined mess

LONDON — Brexit has fractured the European Union and shattered British politics.

Britain is set to have its seventh prime minister since June 23, 2016, a decade ago on Tuesday, when the country voted 52% to 48% in favor of leaving the EU after more than four decades of membership. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who had called the referendum but campaigned for Britain to remain in the bloc, resigned the following day.

His successors all faced, without much success, the consequences of this rupture. The latest is that of Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who announced on Monday that he was resigning after two years of a sluggish economy, government dysfunction and a divided and jaded electorate – all legacies, at least in part, of Brexit.

Although the decision has faded from the headlines, “the underground trace of Brexit” still runs through increasingly undisciplined British politics, said Chris Grey, an academic who has studied the consequences of Britain’s departure from the EU.

The Brexit campaign channeled discontent

Brexit campaigners promised that leaving the then 28-member political and economic bloc would allow the UK to “take back control” of its laws, economy and borders.

While the “remain” campaign focused largely on the economic downsides of leaving, the “leave” campaign was emotional.

“We can see the sunny meadows beyond. I think we would be crazy not to take this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to walk through this door,” said Boris Johnson, a leading Brexit campaigner who would later become prime minister, weeks before the referendum.

Margaret MacMillan, professor emeritus of history at the University of Toronto, said Brexit was fueled by a set of motivations, including nostalgia “for an imagined past.”

“It was against what people saw as unrestricted immigration. It was against what they saw as European regulations. And then there was this mixture of nostalgia: ‘We fought alone in World War II.’ Which obviously wasn’t true.

“It has never been clearly explained what Brexit might entail.”

Trying to make Brexit work has made everyone unhappy

The harsh reality quickly collided with Brexit supporters’ bold promises of immigration controls, trade deals, more money for public services and an end to complex regulations emanating from Brussels.

Acrimonious divorce talks dragged on for years. The United Kingdom officially left the bloc on January 31, 2020, followed by an 11-month transition period until the final split.

Prime Minister Theresa May, Cameron’s successor, resigned in 2019 after failing to find acceptable exit terms for a divided Parliament.

Johnson succeeded May and promised to “get Brexit done”, and managed to secure a basic trade deal after negotiations that left relations between the UK and EU in a deep freeze.

He was ousted by the Conservative Party in mid-2022 after a proliferation of financial and ethical scandals. His replacement, Liz Truss, only remained in office for 49 days. His successor, Rishi Sunak, thawed frosty relations with the EU without making major changes.

Starmer promised a “reset” but refused to consider joining the bloc’s frictionless single market, free of tariffs and other trade barriers.

As he cedes power, Brexit remains unfinished business.

Political parties have fractured

Historian Anthony Seldon said Cameron called the referendum in the hope it would end rows over relations with Europe that had torn the Conservative Party apart. This is not the case.

“The people who were obsessed with it still are. Britain’s problems continued,” Seldon told Times Radio.

During the divorce negotiations, Conservatives who wanted a softer Brexit and closer ties with the EU were driven out of the party by the triumphant Brexiteer faction.

Labour, although much more pro-European, is also experiencing an internal division between those who want to move closer to the bloc, or even return to it, and senior leaders like Starmer who want to avoid reopening old wounds.

A decade later, millions of voters have abandoned the two major parties in favor of alternatives, including the left-wing Green Party and the far-right Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage.

Farage is arguably the biggest political winner from Brexit. He campaigned for divorce and then complained of betrayal. His anti-immigration message no longer focuses on Polish plumbers but rather on asylum seekers in rubber dinghies. His party regularly leads opinion polls.

Cynicism and political violence have increased

The economy has struggled over the past decade, with businesses facing new barriers to trade with Britain’s closest neighbors, although Brexit is not the only cause of weak growth. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the war in Iran also played a role.

Despite all this, “we just haven’t had politicians who have been upfront with the public that when they come to power, they can’t have higher taxes, higher debt, and better public services in the same breath,” said Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government think tank.

“And so people are disappointed.”

Brexit has failed to calm the debate on immigration, which has only intensified, whatever the figures. Net migration increased after Brexit to more than 900,000 in 2023 before falling to 171,000 last year.

Cynicism has increased and trust in politicians has fallen. In recent years, agitators have fueled anti-immigration street violence following crimes committed or falsely reported to have been committed by immigrants.

In the past, Britain had a strong barrier “between the conventional mainstream politics of discourse and argument and what was considered beyond the bounds: violence in the streets”, Gray said. “I think that border is eroding. And I think that started to a large extent with Brexit.”

Kirsty Wigglesworth / AP

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Any regrets? The United Kingdom has experienced some

Polls suggest a certain “Bregret” about the choice Britain made a decade ago, with a recent Ipsos survey revealing that 52% of Britons would like to join the EU, while 33% are opposed.

Hundreds of people, many waving blue and yellow EU flags, marched in London on Saturday as part of a “join” march. This is a much lower turnout than the mass protests on both sides at the height of the Brexit drama. Many people just want to move on.

But Brexit remains a minefield that politicians fear entering. Even if Britain wanted to rejoin the EU, it would be a long road back to a wary EU.

Gray said that until politicians are prepared to deal with the legacy of Brexit, Britain will face a “low-intensity current of crisis”.

He compared the UK to someone with a stubborn illness that saps their energy.

“A chronic thing, in this case maybe not incurable,” he said. “But they just don’t like going to the doctor because they know it’s not going to be very pleasant.”

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