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Civil unrest is happening to Donald Trump America, not Joe Bidens

 


Speaking from the convention stage in Cleveland in 2016, Donald Trump made a solemn promise to the American people: that the crime and violence that plague our nation today will soon end. As of January 20, 2017, security will be restored.

It was, at the time, a striking promise. Beginning in 1994, the murder rate in the United States declined steadily for 20 years. Violent crime had fallen so much that no one spoke of it as a political issue anymore, and the severity of the crime policies of the 80s and 90s was widely seen as embarrassing.

After Michael Brown’s death at the hands of police in Ferguson, Missouri, the dominant conversation in the United States was about criminal justice reform, not crime reduction. But crime increased a bit in 2015 and then more and more in 2016. Progressives didn’t really want to talk about it, but Trump, a man who doesn’t seem to be afraid of being seen as an embarrassing throwback to the 1980s, l ‘did.

It’s not entirely clear how many voters found this particular bet persuasive and appealing, but obviously Trump thinks it works because he’s repeating the same thing. And if Trump were just a guy on Twitter, it would make sense: Murder is on the rise again after a few years, and looting and vandalism is occurring in cities across the country.

But Donald Trump is the President of the United States.

He promised four years ago to restore security and bring law and order to our streets. He never bothered to articulate a message about how he would do this, but it didn’t matter. He was the candidate for public order. But today he is a candidate with a record. A record of rising crime and urban disorder, and a record that clearly shows he has no idea how to improve anything and intervenes in several ways to make matters worse.

Trump defeats the police

One of the biggest quirks of the 2020 election season is that while it offers numerous examples of Republicans accusing Democrats of wanting to dismantle the police, the exact opposite is happening at the policy-making level.

Trump has been very critical of the 1994 Crime Bill and the 2009 Economic Recovery Act, both of which increased federal support for local police. He also submitted four budget proposals to Congress, each proposing cuts in police spending. Specifically, right now politicians are debating what to do about the expiration of unemployment insurance premiums under the CARES Act.

Democrats and Republicans are arguing, in part, over the structure of UI benefits. But they are also fighting over the Democrats’ desire to provide state and local governments with a massive injection of emergency aid funds to fill the giant budget holes created by the Covid-19 pandemic. In the absence of aid due to opposition from the GOP, cities are cutting their budgets.

And while the abstract debate about defounding plays out among intellectuals, real cities cut off. Not just liberal enclaves either. Oklahoma City, one of America’s most conservative cities, is cutting its police budget because it cuts spending across the board.

If you believe the empirical evidence that more cops equals fewer crimes Trump seems to be claiming, this trend would seem to make America less secure. And that’s no longer the case, as cuts to policing will be accompanied by cuts to mental health and other social services, and will come at a time of high unemployment. But while Trump undermines public safety, he is also undermining efforts by citizens to demand accountability for the actions of law enforcement officials.

Trump encourages bad police

From day one, the view of administrations has been to deny that increased police accountability is necessary. In February 2017, then Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that the administration would no longer pursue civil rights prosecutions or investigations into alleged police violations. Sessions called federal consent decrees, a powerful tool the DOJ can use to fight abuse, as an insult. In August, he reversed the course of another Obama-era policy and re-started the flow of military materiel to the police.

Trump himself praised the brutal police tactics, once tweeting about White House protests that every time someone gets too dashing or out of place, [the Secret Service] was going to run into them quickly, didn’t know what hit them, before fantasizing about scenarios in which protesters would walk through the White House fence to be greeted with the most vicious dogs and the most ominous weapons I have. never seen. He pardoned crooked cop Joe Arpaio and challenged senior military officials to issue pardons to suspected and convicted war criminals.

Encouraging poor policing is fundamentally wrong. It also creates a very different political dynamic to that which prevailed from 2014 to 2016. The federal government openly disregards the fundamental objectives of the supporters of police reform who are now taking to the streets in mass protest.

Trump leaves no way out

Protesters spent the summer on the streets as part of what some historians have said may be the biggest movement in American history. If Trump’s goal is to dissolve the protests to eliminate the adjacent violence, the best tool he has is the legislative process. Mitch McConnell could send him a broad package outlining plans for real reform that will satisfy most protesters and signal to others that the political process is addressing community concerns. Ideally, then it would be much easier to identify troublemakers who are more interested in stealing things than in advancing a political cause. It would also make it easier for law enforcement agencies to devote their resources to conventional crime prevention, rather than focusing on nightly clashes with mostly peaceful protesters.

In this optimal world, reforms would work, police misconduct would decrease, community trust would increase, and a virtuous cycle where a higher level of trust would lead to the resolution of more crimes and a greater sense of public safety could. emerge.

This optimal path is difficult to follow. Trump doesn’t even try.

Senate Republicans have blocked key police reform laws, and from the President to state governors and lawmakers, Republicans side with the police unions in a way that Conservatives would recognize as irresponsible towards any other form of public sector union.

The unions are trying to win over their members. Elected officials do not like to raise taxes. This always makes it tempting to compensate public sector workers with things the costs of which are not shown on an official budget document, like a level of job security close to impunity which can in fact turn out to be very costly. for society as a whole. But Republicans today are more interested in using cops and their unions as props in political campaigns than in pointing out that a classic analysis of conservative politics directly addresses one of the main concerns of the contemporary United States. .

This creates a situation in which people are not only angry but also frustrated with the prospects for political change. NBA athletes have successfully used their influence to increase voter participation efforts. But the majority of the GOP Senate that blocks reform is already elected by a minority of voters, precisely because the Senate map consistently underweight the political voice of blacks and residents of large metropolitan areas, exactly the people the NBA is able to influence.

From the courts to the Senate to the Electoral College and gerrymandered state legislatures, Republicans have managed to put themselves in a position where ordinary participation in the political process is not enough to get rid of it.

This is not to excuse random acts of theft or destruction. But it is a reality that makes it much more difficult for responsible people to try to redirect the less responsible towards more constructive activities.

But what does Trump have on tap beyond angry tweets and absurd postures? He’s been president for years and he even struggles with the issues he wants to talk about. Vice President Mike Pence ended his speech last week by asking the American people to let him and Trump make America even more beautiful. In the context, this was basically a request for mulligan on Covid-19, which is absurd. But that’s exactly what Trump is pushing on crime too that we should just ignore the parts of the presidency where his ideas don’t work and his administration fails on his own terms.

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