Gordon G Chang, in a review item for Newsweek, argued that with the failure of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) high-level incursions on the Indo-China border, Xi Jinping had risked his future.
Chang said the aggressive movements of the PLA, whose architect is Xi, unexpectedly failed and resulted in a decrease in Xis’ ability to intimidate anyone.
Leader Xi Jinping, who has already shaken the Communist Party with a campaign of ‘rectification’ and massive persecution of enemies, has risked his future with recent high-profile forays into Indian-controlled territory.
Chang said that traditionally Indian rulers, “psychologically crippled by their loss in the border war with China in 1962, played only defense.” This meant Beijing had grown used to pushing its way through contested territory.
Never paralyzed again, he wrote. Indian soldiers retaliated after the clash in the Galwan Valley and inflicted substantial losses on the Chinese side. In addition, recently, for the first time in half a century, India led an offensive against China, retaking the ground recently raised by the Chinese.
Chinese forces were surprised when Indian troops attempted to retake strategic points. Stunned Chinese soldiers withdrew.
China’s subsequent efforts to counter the Indian movements have proved ineffective. At least for now, Indian troops in the southernmost area of the three conflict zones control the territory once in Chinese hands.
Indian troops are showing renewed audacity. India has effectively abandoned these loss-limiting rules, Chang said. He quoted Cleo Paskal from Foundation for the Defense of Democracies as saying, the game has changed .. You can tell Indians are more aggressive or more aggressively defensive, but they are actually more daring and better. “
Xi is under pressure to demonstrate the capabilities of his ground force. In its last major engagement, in 1979, in the effort to “teach Vietnam a lesson”, China failed miserably.
Xi needs “a victory” and could force new conflicts in Ladakh. However, given the rapid build-up of Indian forces and their high state of readiness, Xi is not assured of the success he aspires to and needs, Chang said, citing Jayadeva Ranade, a former senior military official. Indian intelligence and now at the head of the group based in New Delhi. China Center for Analysis and Strategy.
Chang said the setbacks in Ladakh mean that Xi will almost surely purge elements of the military, and therefore the PLA leaders would have no choice but to take offensive military actions to avoid of becoming a victim of Xi’s internal terror.
In a highly politicized army, the failures of Ladakh give Xi an excuse to hasten the replacement of adversaries from the armed forces with loyal elements.
Xi was in power centralization frenzy for many years.
Other countries will notice that the Chinese military is deficient … failure to bypass the Indian military means that Xi’s ability to intimidate anyone is greatly reduced.
Sadly, it looks like the Chinese leader, who looked invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, he seems absolutely determined to make his point by launching yet another attempt to break up India, Chang said.
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