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The United States vs. China: Knowing Your Opponent Well is Half the Battle Won

 


United States China Tension, People's Republic of China, China's 70th Anniversary, Hong Kong, Republic of China, Chinese Communist Party, US Navy, Defense NewsThe PRC has over 1,250 ground-launched ballistic missiles (GLBMs) ​​and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with a range of between 500 and 5,500 km. (Representative image: Reuters)

By Aziz Haider

It was the year 2019! The People’s Republic of China celebrated the 70th anniversary of its formation. On October 1, 2019, during the national day ceremony held from the Havel Peace Gate, in front of thousands of people who included Chinese Communist Party (CCP) bigwigs and dignitaries from several countries, Xi Jinping not only hailed a military parade depicting the latest technological and military developments but also said in his speech that 70 years ago this was the same place where Mao Zedong announced the formation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which led to the end of centuries of oppression and humiliation to which the Chinese have been subjected. Xi Jinping said that in the 70 years since then, the Chinese people have not only stood up, but also given new life and spirit to the nation. So far, so good! But Xi Jinping went on to say that today socialist China lies in the east of the world, and no power in the world is strong enough to shake the foundations of this nation.

Was it this statement that woke the United States out of its slumber and led to the attempts to corner China? No! Even when Xi Jinping had not openly proclaimed his aggressive new policy of controlling the world’s resources and power, US intelligence was aware of China’s plans and was fully preparing to face them. Proof of our assertion is the annual report that the Office of the Secretary of Defense of the United States has submitted to Congress for the past 20 years. The new report for the year 2020 has been submitted and is now available to the public.

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Section 1202, Public Law 106-65, provides that the Secretary of Defense must submit a report in both classified and unclassified form on military developments and security involving the People’s Republic of China. The report discusses the current and probable evolution of the military-technological development of the People’s Liberation Army and the principles and likely development of Chinese security and military strategy, as well as military organizations and operational concepts. supporting this development over the next 20 years. It also aims to address the engagement and cooperation between the United States and China on security issues during the reporting period, including through contacts between the United States and China, and the strategy of the United States for such commitment and cooperation in the future.

2020 marks an important year for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as it strives to achieve important modernization milestones ahead of the CCP’s broader goal of transforming China into a moderately prosperous society by centenary of the CCP in 2021.

It is remarkable to note that when the Department of Defense (DoD) ‘s first annual report to Congress was submitted in 2000, even though China had started to develop rapidly in the economic arena, its assessment of the PRC armed forces at the time was that of a large but mostly archaic army that was ill-suited to the CCP’s long-term ambitions. At the time, the report mentioned that although the goal of the CCP was for the PRC to become a strong, modernized, unified and wealthy nation, despite these aspirations of great power, the PLA lacked capacity, organization and preparation for modern warfare. He said the PLA was slowly and unevenly adapting to trends in modern warfare and that the structure and capabilities of the PLA forces were largely focused on large-scale land warfare along the borders of the United States. China. He even said that the land, air and naval forces of the PLA were important but mostly obsolete. Its conventional missiles were generally short-range and of modest accuracy. The emerging cyber capabilities of the PLAs were rudimentary; its use of information technology was well overdue, and its nominal space capabilities relied on outdated technologies for the day. In addition, the Chinese defense industry has struggled to produce high quality systems. Even though the PRC could produce or acquire modern weapons, the PLA lacked the joint organizations and training necessary to use them effectively. The report assessed that the organizational obstacles of the PLA were serious enough that, if not resolved, they would prevent the maturation of the PLA into a world-class military force.

It is evident that the CCP has understood these shortcomings and has set itself long-term goals to strengthen and transform its armed forces in a manner commensurate with its aspirations to strengthen and transform China. Today, if we are to learn the lessons of the enemy, we will have to admit that if China could become a force to be reckoned with in a short period of 20 years, it was only through a determined foreign policy and focused, devoid of corruption and invested. elements inside the country are blurring the priorities and pushing aside the political games that our parties and politicians play in the country, which distract from development and reform.

Two decades later, according to the same Pentagon report, the PRC has the largest navy in the world, with an overall combat force of around 350 ships and submarines, including more than 130 large surface combatants. By comparison, the US Navy’s combat force numbered around 293 ships as of early 2020.

The PRC has over 1,250 ground-launched ballistic missiles (GLBMs) ​​and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with a range of between 500 and 5,500 km. The United States currently operates a type of conventional GLBM with a range of 70 to 300 km and no GLCMs.

PRC has one of the world’s largest strengths of advanced long-range surface-to-air systems, including Russian-made S-400s and S-300s, and domestically produced systems are part of its systems architectures. Robust and redundant integrated air defense.

And the report says: More striking than the staggering amounts of new military equipment from the PLA are the recent large-scale efforts by the CCP leadership, including the complete restructuring of the PLA into a force better suited to joint operations, the improvement of the overall combat readiness of the PLA, the encouragement of the PLA. adopt new operational concepts and expand the PRC’s military footprint abroad.

China aims to become a world-class army by the end of 2049. While the meaning of the term world-class is not clarified, it is clear that China’s strategy contemplates another 30 years of modernization and reform. . And the United States will inevitably feel threatened; its authority over the world has been eroded. The report says: What is certain is that the CCP has a strategic end state that it is working towards, which, if achieved and the accompanying military modernization left unanswered, will have serious implications for them. US national interests and the security of international rules-based rules. order.

Perhaps inspired by this report, Germany and France have also started talking about a rules-based international order, in order to stifle China in its attempts to conquer world supremacy.

The report continues in its attempt to understand China’s strategy, examines PLA modernization and reform plans for the various wings of the PLA, including army, navy, air force, construction naval force, the rocket force, its strategic command level operations, the PRC space enterprise and the space program. , its military readiness and deployment, counter-intervention and power projection capabilities, nuclear deterrence as well as future plans for the establishment of naval bases, planning in the Arctic region, etc. He also talks about future plans to capture the global economy.

This is a detailed 200 page report and it is not possible to talk about everything in it in the limited space here. It will be useful for planners in the defense, military, external affairs and trade sectors, and perhaps also the Home Office, to study the report in depth and see if any lessons can be learned. fired from the enemy because knowing the enemy well. is half the battle won.

(The author is an independent analyst. Opinions are personal.)

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