Rather than lamenting and pointing fingers, Armenia needs a sober and wise voice to lift the entire nation out of misery.
At present, the political atmosphere in Armenia is overheated and ripe to veer into uncharted territory.
The crowd that chanted Serzhik Out in Liberty Square a few years ago is now gathering to shout Nikol Out. Many unloaded soldiers or AWOL returned from the battlefield with their weapons. The situation is very volatile and a spark can spark civil unrest. Former regime groups that were ousted from power joined the crowd to take advantage of the chaos.
Former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan has sounded the alarm and called for calm to move away from the civil war.
Moreover, the first president feels today that history justified it.
After the 1994 ceasefire, when large swathes of Azerbaijani territory came under Armenian control, Ter-Petrosyan offered to strike a deal while in a position of power. He warned that the time was against the Armenians and that the agreements that the Armenian side could reach with Baku might not be achievable later.
He was called a traitor and was deposed before completing his second term as president.
Today, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is in the same hot seat to deliver territories and get nothing in return.
Defections from parliament, government and military are happening at a breakneck pace and the circle of Pashinyan supporters is shrinking and leaving him isolated in front of a furious crowd. He remains defiant, but not for long. At a recent session of parliament, he said he was not ready to resign until he could see a mechanism by which the voice of the people could be heard in an orderly and constitutional manner.
If this is true, it fits perfectly with the proposal that President Armen Sarkissian made in a speech on November 16. So far, the president has been eclipsed. The constitution had reduced its function to a figurehead. Sometimes even the most pedestrian protocol functions were refused to him. The reputation of the Sarkissians as a world-class scientist and his political and commercial contacts were untapped. Unlike Pashinyan, he knows how to listen to people and draw his own conclusions. Since November 10, he has been meeting political parties, inside and outside the government. He came to the conclusion that Pashinyan and his government must step down and that an interim leadership must organize early elections in an orderly manner.
Until now, his deceptively gentle mannerisms had given the impression that he was unable to take any resolute action. However, he has proven himself as a father figure capable of reaching consensus. Neither members of the Pashinyan group nor members of the former government can obtain a majority.
It is only when a government of national accord takes the reins of power that the arduous task of recovery can begin.
The first order of business is the interpretation and application of peace agreements. As bad as the deal is, there are many ill-defined clauses and loopholes. It is said that the devil is in the details. But in this case, we can also discover angels saving lives in these obscure details.
The agreement is already under the control of experts in international law who could conclude favorable agreements for Armenia. The most urgent challenge is to determine the status of Karabakh, as this will give the refugees confidence to return home.
In these uncertain and fluid times, as many refugees as possible must return to Karabakh. The depopulation of the enclave will cede these lands to the same fate as Western Armenia, with no resident population to fight for self-determination.
Currently, the situation is turned upside down in Armenia. This image is also reflected in the diaspora. By the way, who represents the diaspora? Where is the voice of the diasporas? The diaspora is also in ruins. Once a government of national reconciliation takes power in Armenia, it will inspire the leadership of the diaspora.
Recently, the diaspora has been able to create national unity by default, motivated by the one and urgent need to help the homeland. This time around, the challenge of recovery will be even greater to consolidate this unity across the diaspora.
Unfortunately, the resources of the diaspora will not be sufficient to initiate an economic recovery. Appeals should be extended to large friendly countries and international agencies for help as well as investment.
Dealing with the pandemic is another challenge that can only be met after the economic recovery.
With Turkey’s presence in the region, instability will be there for the long haul. This will require Armenia to rebuild its armed forces to be ready for future wars. In addition, a strong army will also deter a possible future aggression from Azerbaijan.
Armenia must not only develop its arsenal of drones which have given Turkey and Azerbaijan the decisive advantage, but it must look beyond the next generation of weapons and even a nuclear option should be on the cards. table.
Armenia does not threaten any nation but it must seek the ultimate weapon for its survival, without excuses.
As the geography and demographics change in the region, its policy will change as well. So far Turkey has conditioned the lifting of the blockade of Armenia on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict in favor of the Azerbaijanis. Now that their condition is met, Turkey will try to reap dividends by playing the good guy in front of the international community.
Turkey has mastered the art of invading and enjoying it. He invaded Syria and killed thousands of innocent people and displaced four million people, then Erdogan took on the role of patron saint of refugees and defrauded billions of dollars in grants from Europe to meet the needs of these refugees. .
Ankara will try to apply the same policy to Armenia, offering to lift the blockade as a favor.
This time, Armenia must turn the situation around and define its own demands. So far, Yerevan has offered to resume diplomatic relations without preconditions. Today, he must propose conditions: recognition of the genocide and appropriate reparations. Turkey is very vulnerable to the issue of the Armenian genocide, and that is why Erdogan is spending millions to form government commissions to deny the genocide. Keeping Turkey on the defensive is to Erevans’ advantage.
Additionally, if the borders are open, Turkish goods will flood Armenian markets and Armenian tourists will flock to Turkish beaches. What does Armenia have to sell to Turkey?
We must be warned by the example of Georgias. Turkey colonized Georgia economically and politically under the guise of investments. To be colonized by Turkey is the last thing Armenia needs.
Armenia, Karabakh and the Diaspora are at a historic turning point. The defeat of Karabakh must serve as a bitter lesson to propel the Armenian into a brighter future.
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