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Survey Poltracking: MA-Mujiaman wins Eri-Armuji




SURABAYA – The most accurate polling institute to predict the results of the 2019 presidential election, Poltracking Indonesia, said the duo of mayoral candidates and Surabaya deputy mayor Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman have won over their competitor, candidate number 1, Eri-Armuji.

Based on the results of a survey published by Poltracking Indonesia, Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman (MA-Mujiaman) has an absolute advantage over its competitors of 17% of the vote.

“With a simulation of the pair of Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman 51.7% and Eri-Armuji 34.1% eligibility polls,” a researcher at Poltracking Indonesia, Masduri, said.

As mentioned above, with this data, the Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman pair won 17.6% of the votes of their competitors in the Pilwali 2020.

Further, Masduri explained that based on this data, 5% of Surabaya residents kept their answers secret. Meanwhile, 9.2% had made no choice or were undecided voters.

In addition, Poltracking Indonesia has also mapped the eligibility of candidates to head the Surabaya City region individually or in pairs. Machfud Arifin also defeated Eri Cahyadi face to face by 17.6% of the vote.

“In the question of a single candidate for mayor or unpaired, Machfud Arifin got 51.9% of the vote and Eri Cahyadi 34.3%, while voters who kept their answers secret were 6.0% and undecided voters were 7.8%, ”Masduri said.

Meanwhile, Mujiaman is 16.8% ahead of its competition, namely Armuji. In this category, the number of voters who have kept their answers secret and have not yet made a choice is higher than the candidates for mayor of Surabaya, who still stand at 10.4% and 11.4 %, respectively.

“Similar to the eligibility of the deputy mayor’s sole candidate, Mujiaman’s eligibility level is 47.5% higher than Armuji’s 30.7%,” Masduri said.

Additional information, Poltracking Indonesia uses the stratified multi-stage random sampling method. The number of samples in this survey was 1,200 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level.

This survey cluster covers 31 sub-districts of Surabaya City proportionately based on the latest voter population data, while the stratification of this survey is the gender proportion of voters. This sampling method improves a more accurate representation of the entire electoral population.

Data collection was carried out by trained interviewers through face-to-face interviews with a questionnaire to respondents who had been selected at random. Each interviewer interviewed 10 respondents for each selected kelurahan.

Poltracking Indonesia itself is the most reliable investigative institution in Indonesia. In the 2019 presidential election, this Hanta Yuda-assisted institution published a survey that only represented a 1% difference from the actual KPU tally.

Based on the results of the actual count of the KPU, the pair of presidential-vice-presidential candidates 01 Joko Widodo-Maruf Amin (55.50% or 85,607,362 votes) is superior to the pair of 02 candidates Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Salahudin Uno ( 44.50% or 68,650,239 votes)).

The KPU RI vote recap confirmed that Poltracking accurately predicted the 2019 election results. The difference between the survey numbers for Poltracking Indonesia and the Indonesian KPU was only 1%.

This means that the Indonesian Poltracking survey is the most accurate of a number of investigative institutions that predict the results of the 2019 presidential election. Where the Indonesian Poltracking 2019 presidential election survey conducted from April 1 to 8, 2019 predicts that Jokowi-Maruf (54.50%) is ahead of Prabowo-Sandi (45). , 50%).

Poltracking’s accuracy in predicting the results of the 2019 presidential election has also been recognized by Indonesia Watch for Democracy (IWD).

Poltracking Indonesia’s survey was recorded as the most accurate to approach the rapid tally with a difference of just 0.45%, said Endang Tirtana, executive director of Watch for Democracy (IWD) in Indonesia in Jakarta.

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