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What will China do next? – The New Indian Express

 


Most strategic minds are currently in “analytical overkill” and are unable to assess Ladakh’s standoff much further. Clearly the answers lie in determining why China decided to trigger the stalemate in the first place. The evaluation of the future depends on the success or failure of its intention. China was convinced that, given the international situation at the start of 2020, the United States could soon successfully shift its concentration from Afghanistan and West Asia to the Indo-Pacific, an intention it wished for a long time but did not realize.

The old Pivot-to-Asia and rebalancing strategies could actually bring the United States into full force in the Indo-Pacific after President Trump succeeds in his restructuring and stabilization plans for West Asia. China was unsure of Trump’s electoral prospects at the end of 2020; another Trump term would have become far too unpredictable and he was to face some degree of disruption. He worked on the possibility of a second term for Trump in which the United States would aggressively build strategic partnerships against China and work to influence many of the nations that Beijing was working with on its own partnerships under the Belt and Road initiative.

The Indian landmass and the Indian Ocean form a flank of the Indo-Pacific. It is a very important flank, where India’s strategic dominance would work to the advantage of the United States if New Delhi were a strategic partner. An increasingly confident India, bolstered by regional success in the South Asian security environment, might be prompted to join the US-led partnerships for China’s active containment. To partially neutralize this flank and prevent India from playing a significant proactive role in the US strategy of containment of China, the latter may well have perceived the need to disrupt the security environment of New Delhi to undermine its growing strategic confidence and hamper it in its own defense. .

This trust has perhaps been viewed as inordinate over the past five years, especially after the Indian government’s decisions on J&K taken on August 5, 2019 and the rhetoric that followed. China has achieved a strategic surprise against India amid the pandemic. He came with the aim of generating only friction, awaiting a weak Indian response; he was in turn surprised by the ferocity of the response and the amount of resources deployed by India. Risks that the PLA might have deemed low suddenly increased. Another meeting at a sticking point could go against the PLA and damage the reputation of Xi Jinping, the man who heads both the CPC and the CMC.

A war situation can force a disproportionate deployment of the PLA in that theater with a resulting overall imbalance. China has reportedly noticed that India is suddenly talking about offensive operations in Tibet and has even employed Tibetan SFF troops. The field of conventional warfare would be even more unpredictable and, in conjunction with Pakistan, the potential targets would drag the PLA into a severe test, which has no potential for certain victory.

Operationally, another problem has been created for China with Indian troops occupying the heights of the Kailash Range above the PLA Moldo garrison. India should and will demand disengagement at all sticking points, which includes Depsang where the PLA denied Indian troops access to patrol points on their side of the LAC. However, it is not so much a question of physical military victory as of “moral ascendancy” in the various actions which take place. China will perceive a mutual withdrawal to the status quo ante and a withdrawal from Depsang weighed against a withdrawal from the Kailash lineup by India as a moral loss.

China was also unable to prevent the unintended consequences it wanted to avoid, such as India’s increased focus on military modernization, strategic rebalancing, emphasis on maritime strengthening, closer proximity to the United States and its allies and economic decoupling, which is taking shape. The PLA does not find it easy to support 40,000 soldiers in sub-zero conditions. He could have moved troops along the entire length of India’s northern borders, but that would have resulted in a deployment disproportionate to what he was trying to achieve and caused major logistical problems.

It seems to confirm the strategy of limited coercion and the attempt at moral ascendancy. Where the Chinese went wrong was in judging what would constitute a constraint sufficient to impose caution on India’s growing strategic confidence. Military coercion was to be reinforced by information and psychological warfare, cyber offensive and economic bullying under conditions of economic downturn in India. No optimal effort to convert the summer campaign into an effective hybrid conflict was seen. This seems to indicate the potential of all this deployment as a second strand of the strategy at a later stage, provided international conditions demand it.

Xi’s attempts to project intent for war through his PLA readiness warnings, setting new targets for the PLA’s 100th anniversary in 2027, and criticism of India’s military capability are up to now. now not convincing. However, the use of brief and brutal intimidation in a separate tactical advantage area cannot be ruled out in the near future anywhere along the northern border. Some maritime intimidation in the Indian Ocean can also be expected to expand the scope.

In light of all of the above, India doesn’t need to do more than it does. He was right not to overreact to criticism of the perceived loss of territory. There is no permanence in such situations which are only progressing actions. We must accept the temporary deployment of additional troops and a budget for it, in addition to seeking to strengthen our overall conventional capacity on an accelerated basis. There is no inevitability of war, but the stalemate is unlikely to be hastily reduced as China has neither failed nor succeeded in its strategy. It has experienced setbacks and this is unacceptable for a growing superpower, forcing it to prolong this impasse until it perceives some sort of victory, even pyrrhic.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) ([email protected])
Former commander of the 15th corps based in Srinagar. Now Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir

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