Indonesia task force finds peak of 95,000 coronavirus cases in May-June

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia expects the number of coronavirus cases to peak between May and June with around 95,000 infections, a government adviser said Thursday, officially admitting the increasing scale of the disease. epidemic in the Southeast Asian country.

Health experts have warned that Indonesia is facing a surge in cases after a slow government response has masked the scale of infections in a country that has recorded 5,516 cases and 496 deaths, the number of deaths the highest in East Asia after China.

“We believe the peak of the pandemic in Indonesia will start in early May and last until early June,” said Wiku Adisasmito, public health expert and advisor to the Indonesian working group COVID-19, adding the number of cases. during the peak could reach 95,000.

Based on epidemiological modeling from various institutions, including Harvard University, Adisasimto said that the cases could eventually reach 106,000 by July.

Another model from the Faculty of Public Health at the University of Indonesia has warned that there could be more than 140,000 deaths and 1.5 million cases in Indonesia by May, unless the government takes tougher measures.

Indonesia has performed nearly 40,000 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for the virus. Doni Monardo, head of the COVID-19 task force, said at a joint briefing that the government was looking to perform at least 10,000 tests a day.

Indonesia has been criticized for its low test rates and has sought to procure the reagents needed for the test kits in a context of rapidly increasing global demand.

Health ministry official Achmad Yurianto said he is currently looking to countries such as Singapore for one of the two reagents, adding “we will not be able to test without it”.

Meanwhile, Monardo said that only the unemployed would be allowed to join an annual exodus from the cities, known in Indonesia as “mudik”, at the end of the Muslim fasting month.

This year, the mudik fell at the end of May and despite fears of accelerating the spread of the virus, particularly in remote areas ill-equipped for a health crisis, President Joko Widodo resisted a total ban.

Monardo said those recently laid off who continued mudik should be quarantined for 14 days and stressed that they are more likely to stay well outside the cities.

“One of the things we encourage is to eat healthy food,” he said, explaining how the unemployed would find it easier to eat well in their home villages.

As the number of cases increases, the country’s health system, which has more than 260 million people, may fear being overwhelmed.

Monardo said Indonesia is speeding up the production of personal protective equipment, while Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said at the same briefing that Jakarta is holding talks with Japan on joint production of PPE.

Additional reporting and writing by Kate Lamb; Editing by Ed Davies and Nick Macfie

Our standards:Principles of the Thomson Reuters Trust.

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