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A fertile ground for Trump’s return




Trump gestures triumphantly to Florida fans after his Senate acquittal. Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Just when you thought it was safe to read up on politics without constant references to Donald Trump or the polls, Politico and Morning Consult have news for you, with this headline: Trump emerges from impeachment trial with the strong support from GOP voters.

I am very aware that we do not know what the 45th President will do in the future or how much of his legacy will relate to his party or the country. It’s also crazy early on, and for many people tired of horse racing, it’s painfully early to talk about what might happen in the 2024 presidential cycle. Overall, most of the people who read my words don’t probably want nothing more than to hear nothing from Trump for the foreseeable future, or maybe until the end of time.

That said, it’s important to recognize that Trump is historically unique, and not just because he’s been impeached twice or because he left office after instigating a physical attack on Capitol Hill to reverse an electoral defeat. that only a liar of his quality (or those who believed his lies) could have doubted. Like it or not, he stepped down as the first defeated president since Herbert Hoover to have reason to believe he could make a comeback, with the goal of becoming the first defeated president since Grover Cleveland to succeed. . So his place among fellow supporters who may soon determine whether a Trump return is even plausible should be of interest to anyone who wants to look to the future with clear eyes.

We now have a legitimate, albeit tentative, indictment that Trumps’ intra-partisan stance is on the rise again, possibly due to his acquittal in a second Senate impeachment trial, as Politico reports:

While the rest of the country wants less of DONALD TRUMP, Republicans simply cannot leave him. Our POLITICO / Morning Consult flash poll conducted in the days following the Senate trial shows that despite the striking presentation and video by impeachment officials and the video featuring Trump’s role in the January 6 rampage, the GOP remains Trump’s undisputed party.

Republican voters very quickly overcame any doubts they had about Trump’s role on January 6. Fifty-nine percent of Republican voters said they want Trump to play a major role in their party going forward. on Jan. 7, and a 9-point increase from a follow-up poll on Jan. 25, before the impeachment trial began.

Yes, seven Senate Republicans voted to convict Trump of serious crimes and misdemeanors, and 13 others have voiced criticism by voting to acquit him. But basically that’s a different story. New Morning Consult results show Trump’s favorability rate among Republicans was 81% immediately after the trial. Mitch McConnells, by comparison, was 33%. It is unclear whether Republicans now view Mike Pence as a loyal and often accomplice to Trumps for the past four years or the man who refused to steal electoral votes from Joe Biden on January 6; its intraparty favorability rating is 72%.

In a first horse racing survey of Republicans’ preferences in 2024, no one comes close to Trump, the current 53% favorite. Pence is second with 12%, followed by Donald Trump Jr. and Nikki Haley with 6%. As Politico notes, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Mitt Romney, Kristi Noem, Larry Hogan, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott and Rick Scottall polled less than 5%. What this shows going forward is that there will likely be a group of 2024 wannabes who decide they can’t offend the former president or his supporters for the foreseeable future, even if they hope he doesn’t show up again. Unless Trump’s assessments within his party change dramatically, or he chooses for his own reasons to withdraw from politics, he is going to be the GOP’s unwavering object, if not an irresistible force. And for now, his status among Republicans is on the rise again.

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