Connect with us


China will not overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy: forecast




According to the just published analysis, the Chinese economy will likely remain the second largest in the world in 2050, behind the United States.

Capital Economics’ prediction is at odds with the commonly held view that China is on the verge of overtaking the United States as the world’s largest economy and staying there.

The London-based consulting firm predicts that China’s economic weight will not increase steadily relative to the United States over time, in part due to its workforce declining by more than 0.5 % per year by 2030. Meanwhile, the US workforce will grow over the next 30 years. , supported by higher fertility than in China and immigration, he said.

“The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and shrinking labor force prevent China from overtaking the United States,” the analysis said.

Workers at factory in China
Workers check car pistons on a production line in Binzhou, east China’s Shandong Province. According to Capital Economics forecasts, the Chinese economy could still be behind the United States in 2050.
Getty Images

According to the firm’s forecast, the pace of economic convergence between countries depended on what happens to productivity, as well as inflation and the exchange rate. He said if China didn’t overtake the United States in the mid-2030s, “it probably never will.”

“And if it overtakes, China might have a hard time retaining the top spot,” he added, although the output of Chinese workers is expected to grow faster than in the United States after 2030 and the income between countries will also continue to decline.

Capital Economics’ chief economist for Asia, Mark Williams, who wrote the analysis, said China’s growth was slowing mainly because leader Xi Jinping rejected efforts to open up the economy .

“State control of the economy is one aspect of Xi Jinping’s belief that the Party should be dominant in all aspects of Chinese society,” he said. Newsweek.

“Most people think China’s economic growth will remain much stronger, so overtaking the United States is only a matter of time. I think China’s growth has slowed down considerably over the past year. decade and is likely to continue, mainly because productivity growth is declining.

“If so, China could move closer to the United States in terms of economic size around 2030, but not exceed.”

He said “demographic headwinds” would continue to weigh on China’s economy. “There is a chance that China will come first and then fall back as this demographic drag increases,” he added.

Last year, China closed its GDP gap with the United States, growing its economy by 2.3% to $ 14.7 trillion. This is only $ 6.2 trillion less than U.S. GDP, up from $ 7.1 trillion in 2019, CNBC reported.

In January, a preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that U.S. GDP contracted 2.3% last year in current dollars to $ 20.93 trillion.

Last month, a separate analysis suggested that COVID-19 could mean Chinese GDP could overtake the United States sooner than expected, as the U.S. economy had been hit hardest by the pandemic. According to the prediction of financial group Nomura, according to “reasonable growth projections”, China could surpass the United States by 2028, CNBC reported.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at French investment bank Natixis, agreed that China may continue to lag behind the US economy.

“This is possible because the average real GDP growth in China may well hover around 2.5% in 2035 and beyond, which will mean that China will stop converging with the United States and maybe even diverge.” , she said. Newsweek.

“The decline in the working population is one of the reasons, but also a deceleration in productivity,” she added.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos

picture credit


to request, modification Contact us at Here or [email protected]