MONKS – If he does run, former President Donald Trump is the Iowa Republicans’ frontrunner to win the state’s first presidential caucuses.
If he doesn’t, it looks like there will be a wide open race for Iowa GOP support among party hopefuls looking to challenge President Joe Biden in 2024.
A Victory Insights poll of 650 Republicans in Iowa found 61% said they would back Trump if he ran.
No other Republican rose above 10 percent among “very likely” caucuses in the March 5-8 poll. However, US Senator Mitt Romney from Utah, “someone else” and former Vice President Mike Pence had more than 10 percent support among all Republicans.
If Trump doesn’t run, “it’s complicated,” according to Victory Insights.
More than 1,000 days before the 2024 caucuses, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Pence and U.S. Senator from Texas Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2016, are at the top of the pack. Among the very likely caucuses, DeSantis was at 20%, Pence was just a tick behind and Cruz at 16%. However, support for DeSantis and Cruz fell among all Republicans, while support for Pence remained stable.
“Undecided” and “someone else” met for more than 30 percent of all Republicans.
Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – who will be in Iowa later this week – and Romney were considered as “low level” candidates.
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“Of course, there are several aspects of the Iowa caucuses that the polls just can’t anticipate. After all, the caucus is still years away, ”said Victory Insights.
However, based on the demographically weighted study, he concluded that the “win rate” for DeSantis is 54 percent, 29 percent for Pence and 17 percent for Cruz.
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