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New Syrian process prevents Iran from attracting Gulf Arabs

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Guess who is left out?

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The plot has just thickened in the contest to shape post-conflict Syria: Russia, Turkey and Qatar have launched a new Trilateral “consultation process” promote a political solution to the 10-year civil war. Basically it doesn’t include Iran.

The aim, it seems, is to pave the way for a broader re-engagement of Gulf Arabs with Syria and a concomitant marginalization of Iranian influence.

Since the war was effectively resolved in December 2016, when pro-government forces invaded opposition-held eastern Aleppo, most of the action has centered on the so-called ” Astana process ”which began in January 2017, in which Russia, Turkey and Iran negotiated over the spoils. But Iranian involvement has effectively prevented the Arab Gulf states, whose financial strength is essential for the reconstruction of Syria – and whose diplomatic support is essential to end the country’s pariah status.

The new initiative also recognizes that the Astana process has, for all intents and purposes, failed. The original troika has only held five meetings since 2018, and the fourde-escalation areasWhat they established were totally ignored by Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad who, with the support of Russia and Iran, took control of three of them. Astana was also unable to prevent Turkey’s offensives in northern Syria in October 2019, nor a clash in February last year between Turkish forces and Assad’s troops directly supported by the military. Russian air.

Astana has produced no political progress in Syria and little reconstruction. So it’s no surprise that Russia and Assad are looking for another way forward, this time with Arab partners.

The Gulf states supported the rebel forces at the start of the war, but their unified stance against Assad has softened. The United Arab Emirates, for example, has already reopened its embassy in Damascus and appears open to a deal with the regime. At the same time, Russia was try to involve the Arab states in the Astana process.

This was never going to happen as long as the other two states involved in the process, Iran and Turkey, remained hostile to Gulf Arabs. The new forum does away with the Iranians and seeks to build on Turkey’s recent efforts to mend barriers with the Arab world. (In turn, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expressed interest in better relations with Turkey.)

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