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Loss of non-religious vote was behind President Donald Trump’s loss to Joe Biden in US election – study

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There is also weak evidence that the Republican candidate gained some support among small religious groups in the United States, such as Hindus and Buddhists. Trump increased his share of those two groups by four percentage points each. But it’s important to note that these two groups combined only make up about 1.5% of the U.S. population. As such, a four point increase translates to only a very small fraction of the overall popular vote.

What is clear is that Trump has lost a lot of ground among unaffiliated clerics. Trump’s share of the atheist vote fell from 14% in 2016 to just 11% in 2020; the decline among agnostics was slightly larger, from 23 percent to 18 percent.

Moreover, those who identify as “nothing special” a group that represents 21% of the overall American population were not so supportive of Trump in his bid for reelection. His share of the vote in that group fell by three percentage points, while that of Biden rose by more than seven points, with the Democrat managing to win many ‘nothing in particular’ who had backed third-party candidates in the election. from 2016.

Taken as a whole, Trump has done somewhat better among Christians and other small religious groups in the United States, but has lost ground among non-religious affiliates. What these results cannot explain, however, is a record participation rate. There were almost 22 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016. So while the share of the vote may not have changed much, the number of votes cast helped tip the election. of the Democratic candidate. A more detailed breakdown of voter turnout is expected to be released in July 2021 by the team administering the Cooperative Election Study; This will highlight the image of religion and the 2020 vote more clearly.

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