Let me start with what surprised me the most during Imran Khan’s tenure to date. That he did not choose to run in early or early elections during his tenure. He had every reason to do so. The opposition launched a rigged poll and quickly began to question his credentials as the country’s elected prime minister. A perception of IK as an establishment proxy began to take hold amid allegations of electoral manipulation. Suppose there has been a boost, if not a push in its direction by the very significant military influence in our national affairs. And third, it was obvious that the opposition was going to call him by names and not let him run in parliament while harassing him in government.
Yet IK chose not to return to the people for a new term. There is a point where the credibility is still in place, the romance alive if it was actually a uplifting factor in someone like it was in this case, and the trust people have in the person. is thwarted by forces and factors hostile to any change in the status quo. His convincing plea to the people could have been that a voluminous mandate was crippling and that his good faith as an undisputed leader was called into question. That he could only fulfill the agenda if the people gave him an indisputable mandate and an enabling majority beyond any reprimand or sprinkle. He was ill-advised, failed in his political judgment to reap the benefits of established political practice, and ended up being a lame duck from the start of his tenure. A few suggested this remedy but were dismissed under the pride of populism.
As such, what did he find as he continued, what he thought he was, to rule in a gravely turbulent political environment and a deliberately crippled parliament? He found that the administrative machine was unresponsive as he was not sure whether the new political masters actually carried weight or should they bide the time for those who seemed to have the government in hand and could soon return to power. . He found that the economy was in ruins and structured in a particular way that only allowed one type of management that he had campaigned against and that went against his political sense. He found he had no money in the treasury as the stacked debt loomed. He found that no member of his team could help him figure out what was at hand, especially in the tax and economic area. He found that he and his team were ill-equipped and ill-prepared to manage an oversized but shallow state structure and a failing economy – jin pe takiya tha wohi pattay hawa denay lagay. His failed him with inadequate understanding and incompetent skill.
Yes, a bit of a social safety net here and a bit there, but Covid provided the context for what would otherwise be a bad economic choice. The documents will serve one or two meals but will not stand. Consider the global experience of the poorest economies with micro-credits and how they contribute to the economy. Saving lives is a compelling argument, but how much and for how long remains unanswered. In the meantime, many continue to lose jobs, food on the table and ultimately lives. Governments don’t do charity. Private companies are doing it. This is where the charisma should have rested social responsibility if it was the only way out of a difficult social and economic conflict. President Joe Biden can undertake such donations because he knows his economy will and can recover it. Where the economy itself is in question, you hasten its end only when one indulges in a band-aid.
So what does the future hold in terms of prospects for IK and its government? What might be possible in the remaining time of his tenure now that divine aid and the youthful politics of the PDM have provided the government space? Will his glass fill, even slightly? He faces significant challenges in his remaining term in government – some due to his own will and that of his government, and others have been bequeathed by decades of bad governance that had now struck the net. security. These should be broadly categorized as economics, reforms and efficient administration which will disproportionately include the rule of law. Perhaps another question we need to look at is how did another government manage to cope with the same set of challenges.
IK got entangled in the popular pursuit of the corrupt that the chimera held back for some time, but then got stuck in the rhetoric. Soon enough, he should have realized that there are many aspects to the problem of corruption. The system which is based on heavy appeasement by both legal and illegal means only works when properly greased with graft. Then there is the lingering crisis of the rule of law which is not only applied selectively, but which also refrains from reaching the rich and powerful who wield influence and benefit from corruption. The laws of the land leave many loopholes for the corrupt to escape the net. When IK cries that the system does not support him in bringing the corrupt to the book into the hands of a compromised criminal justice system, it only means that all of his effort and the time he has spent doing so has been wasted. He paid the price for this failed enterprise for lack of attention to reform, administrative efficiency and economic restructuring.
The economy is bogged down by high inflation and heavy debt. The decline in demand through currency manipulation was regressive. In a consumer economy, this meant a decrease in income even though spending remained stable. A lack of fiscal capacity handicapped relief or inflated subsidies. So even when the economy struggles to reinvigorate its benefits to the common man, there is still a long way to go. All forecasts point to a slow recovery, so little “good news” can be expected from the relieved economy. Getting entangled in sugar when a system is already being manipulated by the Big Wigs will mean taking on a entrenched Mafia that has fangs all over the place. A simple recourse to the control of “futures” or “speculative buying” could have been better managed through targeted legislation and the creation of mechanisms to manage market forces. Changing systems and structures rather than attacking personalities will correct the distortions. Likewise, eliminating money laundering and its harmful effects on the economy requires legislation that can close the loopholes. You can’t waste more time on things over which a government has no control. A government can only legislate and prosecute, it is better to leave the proceedings to the courts.
In its remaining tenure, the government may be able to attract enough of the opposite to coordinate electoral reforms. Beyond that, it can be illusory. The government should quickly gain a better understanding of the market and better manage supply in order to control rising prices and inflation. Improving administrative efficiency at all levels can be a good boost for good governance. This could save the PTI and IK from some blushes and raise hopes of their lasting political role as a party, if not another term.
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