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Exclusive: India and Pakistan hold secret talks to try to break deadlock in Kashmir

 


By Sanjeev Miglani and Asif Shahzad

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Senior Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials held secret talks in Dubai in January as part of a new effort to calm military tensions over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, told Reuters in Delhi people familiar with the matter.

Ties between nuclear-weapon rivals have been frozen since a 2019 suicide bomb attack on an Indian military convoy in Kashmir attributed to Pakistan-based militants that led to India sending in fighter jets in Pakistan.

Later that year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew the autonomy of Kashmir under Indian rule in order to tighten its grip on the territory, causing outrage in Pakistan and the downgrading of diplomatic relations and the suspension of bilateral trade. .

But the two governments have reopened a rear diplomacy channel aimed at a modest roadmap to normalize relations over the next few months, the people said.

Kashmir has long been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, both of which claim the entire region, but only partially rule there.

Officials from India’s Research and Analysis Wing, external spy agency and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence traveled to Dubai for a meeting facilitated by the UAE government, two people said.

India’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. The Pakistani army, which controls the ISI, has also not responded.

But Ayesha Siddiqa, a leading Pakistani defense analyst, said she believed Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials had been meeting for several months in third countries.

“I think there have been meetings in Thailand, Dubai, London between the highest levels,” she said.

‘IT’S A FRAUD’

Such meetings have also taken place in the past, particularly in times of crisis, but have never been publicly recognized.

“There are a lot of things that can still go wrong, it’s difficult,” said one of the people in Delhi. “That’s why nobody talks about it in public, we don’t even have a name for it, it’s not a peace process. You can call it a re-engagement,” one said. .

The two countries have reasons to seek a rapprochement. India has been locked in a border deadlock with China for the past year and does not want the military to be stretched out on the Pakistani front.

China’s ally Pakistan, mired in economic woes and an IMF bailout package, can hardly afford heightened tensions on the Kashmir border for an extended period, experts say. He must also stabilize the Afghan border to the west as the United States withdraws.

“It is better for India and Pakistan to talk rather than not to speak, and even better if it is done quietly than in a burst of publicity,” said Myra MacDonald, a former Reuters reporter who just published an book on India, Pakistan and the war. at the borders of Kashmir.

“… But I don’t see that it goes much beyond simply managing tensions, perhaps to deal with the two countries during a difficult time – Pakistan has to deal with the fallout from the US withdrawal from it. Afghanistan, while India faces a much more volatile situation on its disputed border with China. “

COMPOSING THE RHETORIC

Following the January meeting, India and Pakistan announced that they would stop cross-border shooting along the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir, which has left dozens dead and numerous mutilated civilians. This ceasefire is in effect, military officials from both countries said.

Both sides have also signaled plans to hold elections on their Kashmir side this year as part of efforts to restore normalcy to a region torn by decades of bloodshed.

The two also agreed to reduce their rhetoric, people Reuters spoke to said.

This would include Pakistan dropping its strong objections to Modi’s repeal of Kashmir autonomy in August 2019, while Delhi in turn refrains from blaming Pakistan for all violence on its side of the Line of Control.

These details have not been reported before. India has long blamed Pakistan for the Kashmir uprising, an allegation Pakistan denied.

“There is a recognition that there will be attacks inside Kashmir, there have been discussions on how to deal with it and not let this effort derail by the next attack,” said one of the people.

However, there is not yet a grand plan to resolve the 74-year-old dispute in Kashmir. Instead, the two sides are trying to ease tensions to pave the way for broad engagement, everyone Reuters spoke to said.

Pakistan is moving from a geostrategic domain to a geo-economic one, ”Raoof Hasan, special assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, told Reuters.

“Peace, both within and around its neighbors, is a key element in facilitating this.”

(Report by Sanjeev Miglani in New Delhi and Asif Shahzad in Islamabad: edited by Nick Macfie)

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