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Imran Khan vs. Ziaul Haq?

 


Some of the current regime’s most effusive opponents are prone to exaggeration. The funniest hyperventilation occurs when some claim with great confidence that the current era is worse than the dictatorship of Gen Ziaul Haq.

This is pure nonsense, but not because the protagonists of the current scenario are necessarily trying to make things better than the obscurity of the 1980s. The comparison to the 1980s is absurd because lowering the volume of national discourse to the days of Generation Zias were so much easier than today. In an era of a seemingly limitless number of newspapers, TV stations, social networks, and angry and underserved citizens, weak attempts to manage the national discourse only expose the limited imaginations of the protagonists of this unique period in Pakistan’s political history.

The comparison to the Zia era is pure hyperbole, of course. Today’s powerless political opposition and the dead-end resistance they have brought up against you are as much a function of the biased incentives of the descendants of the political families that stir up the crush, as they are of the incompetence with which the regime. current is headed. But not all comparisons to Zia are to be dismissed so easily. Indeed, Prime Minister Khan would be well served to reflect on how poorly he has done his turn to run the country, when it comes to finding the right people to surround himself with. This is where the comparison with General Zia deserves further reflection. Consider the kind of people Ziaul Haq has managed to get into his cabinets compared to the parade of disappointing talent that PM Khan has immortalized in the annals of the Cabinet Division.

Despite all its limitations, the Zia generation favored competence and talent. That is why he had Dr Mahbubul Haq, Sahibzada Yaqub Khan and Sartaj Aziz in his offices. Now consider the Imran Khan team. Four finance ministers, not one scratching the surface of the Zia All Stars. A foreign minister who can be described as many things, but not as a substitute for the Great Sahibzada. A planning and development function that is shared between a retired bureaucrat, an army general, and the closest thing to a replica of Imran Khan with an occasional sugar mafia boss thrown in . The best PM Khan can call for is a short list (Asad Umar, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Shaukat Tarin), and nowhere near as impressive as General Zias.

Halfway through his first term as Prime Minister, how can Grand Imran Khan be compared to General Zia, and that too unfavorably? Supporters who continue to believe in Prime Minister Khan’s potential should now start thinking about at least some of the reasons why such comparisons will be made.

In any Pakistani regime, five things determine failure and success. All Pakistani regimes are mixed up, and no regime has ever been truly successful (which is why Pakistan is a poor country with a bloated and irresponsible state apparatus and millions of fragile, emaciated and broken citizens). The five things that determine the success and failure of a regime are delivery, management of the elite, management of religious sentiment, maintenance of the narrative, and external relations. PM Khan and his main allies in the power equation after the 2018 election have so far drawn a convincing record of failures, with very little success and very negligible.

Let’s start with the successes of this diet. On the delivery front, PM Khan’s compassion for the poor has been a key theme of governance since 2018, and renewed efforts to serve the poor through programs such as the Sehat Insaaf Health Insurance Program and Change name of Benazir’s income support program under the name Ehsaas. The program stands out. The Covid-19 support provided to individuals and businesses has been essential in helping Pakistanis survive the pandemic. Several changes in the way the Securities and Exchange Commission and the State Bank of Pakistan deal with the flow of money, especially for the tech sector and start-ups, all reflect the instinct for good policy. public that informs almost all long-time supporters of the PTI.

Unfortunately, this list is short and is overwhelmingly overshadowed by the competing chess list. Issues like inflation, the management of the Covid-19 vaccination, the management of the Higher Education Commission, the piles of garbage that rise ever higher in the cities governed by the PTI, all carry the notion childbirth tote. PM Khan has repeatedly acknowledged his failures on the delivery front.

As far as the management of the elite is concerned, the greatest strength of this regime has been the strong convergence between Islamabad and Rawalpindi, so that the PM Khan’s management of the most elite of the elite has been rather spectacular ( as long as we assume this is an accurate representation of management direction). Some of the business elite run PM Khan, not the other way around. Some political elites are waiting, hoping enough missteps for more powerful neighborhoods than Bani Gala to turn to them (hello, PPP). Still others among the political elite are banking on the power of the people, not realizing how much the levers of power of the people have been eroded by easily manipulated broadcasting and social media, as well as by a justice system and justice system. bureaucracy more ductile and malleable than copper wire.

If most of the country’s elite groups seem to be taking up arms, it’s not because they hate Prime Minister Khan, it’s because they hate uncertainty. The faithful of the PTI naively let it be said that it is because PM Khan is fighting all the mafias at the same time. The truth is that without the invisible hand of politics (still present in Pakistan), the PTI’s own coalition partners would not even speak to the Prime Minister, or his often dysfunctional cabinet.

Religious sentiment in Pakistan has taken on a menacing tone, and although the establishment is keen to bottle the most toxic elements that inform the national discourse, neither Prime Minister Khan nor his powerful supporters have any clue. way to tackle the sustained and irrepressible aggression of Barelvi which they themselves had fed and stimulated in 2016, 2017 and even 2018. Combine this aggression and swagger with the dynamism of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and some chickens seem to be returning home to roost. How do you say cock-a-doodle-doo to counter violent extremism? Nobody knows.

Prime Minister Khan has maintained his sole article on corruption, but most polls, as well as recent election results, amply demonstrate that only the most vocal and self-effacing supporters of the PTI take the regime seriously on corruption matters. . This is the price to pay for treating public finance management as a subject that can be broached with teenage zeal or the junoon of uncles in their sixties and seventies who owe their interest in politics to the favorite son. by Zaman Parks.

Finally, external relations in the post-2018 dispensation have been a sine wave, constantly disturbed, oscillating wildly and unpredictably. The fact that all of Pakistan’s most vital relationships (Afghanistan, India, China, United States, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) are not run from the old Scherezade hotel complex was meant to be a luxury for Prime Minister Khan. But it seems to be becoming a handicap.

Amidst all of this, some are foolishly looking for a disruption that will replace PM Khan with someone else. For some it is a desperate call: someone, anyone. Anyone except Khan. But what magical powers will another WP wield over a system facing the deep institutional challenges facing Pakistani governance? Nothing.

More stupidly still, it prompts others to demand the total elimination of parliament and the renewal of a presidential system. The last three presidential systems in Pakistan delivered respectively the partition of Pakistan in 1971 (thank you President Ayub and President Yahya), the establishment of religious extremism as a public good (thank you President Zia) and the TTP wars and BLA on Pakistan (thank you President Musharraf).

The TLP must lick his lips.

The writer is an analyst and a commentator.

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