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Inflation likely rose for a seventh month as the lira slipped

 


ISTANBUL: Turkish inflation likely accelerated for a seventh month in April as a weak lira and rising global energy prices compounded the impact of a low base a year ago.

Data showed that consumer prices rose 17.3% annually, down from 16.2% the month before, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of 16 analysts, all of whom predicted a acceleration. Inflation slowed in April 2020 as the intensifying pandemic led to cheaper oil and slowing economies.

The upward trend in inflation leaves new central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu with little leeway to adopt the interest rate cuts sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who supports the unorthodox view that high interest rates drive up prices.

Kavcioglu is the fourth head of Turkey’s central bank since 2018, with his predecessor sacked by Erdogan after overseeing a 200 basis point hike in the benchmark. He left rates unchanged at his first monetary policy meeting, but withdrew his promise to provide further tightening. Relaunching inflation forecasts last week, former banking professor Kavcioglu pledged to maintain a firm position with determination and patience.

Despite its positive market comments, the lira has weakened more than 12% against the dollar since it arrived in the bank on March 20.

The central bank’s expectations for inflation, which will peak in April, will remain above 16% until the third quarter and fall to 12.2% by the end of the year are in line with our forecast path. , Yarkin Cebeci, London-based economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co wrote in a note. JPMorgan sees inflation at 13.4% in the last quarter and the next key interest rate cut in September.

Morgan Stanley analysts, including Alina Slyusarchuk and Andrea Masia in London, expect price growth to rise. We don’t see any easing and therefore have the policy rate on hold until the fourth quarter, they said in a note. We expect inflation to accelerate to 18.7% in April and stay around 19% through the summer due to the lira’s decline and other pressures.

The next central bank rate meeting is scheduled for May 6. Kavcioglu told Bloomberg in his first interview after being appointed that he does not approve of a prejudiced approach towards MPC in April and / or the following months, that a rate cut will be delivered immediately.

He pledged to offer a positive real rate after correction for inflation and to maintain a restrictive policy until the banks’ 5% inflation target is reached. Bloomberg



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