There’s some intrigue in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings now that Oregon has lost. Will the State of Ohio Pre-empt Alabama? Will Michigan Cincinnati Jump? How Far Will Oregon and Michigan State Fall?
As a reminder, here are the criteria that the members of the CFP selection committee consider when preparing the ranking each week:
- strength of scheme
- Conference championships (once decided)
- head to head
- Results vs regular opponents
- Results vs Ranked Opponents
Fortunately, the committee’s definition of “ranked opponents” is different than what you’re used to seeing. The rankings they use are the CFP rankings from the week before. They don’t take into account where teams were ranked when the games were played, either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game time rankings is the most useless way to determine “ranked opponents”. In fact, the commission specifically prohibits the use of a poll with a season starting point.
There are also criteria that are not specifically stated and are unlikely to be spoken out loud by anyone. Those include things like the margin of victory. Teams are not always in control of their strong scheme, but they can take steps to compensate for a weak one by dominating the opponents they encounter.
Also when it comes to game controls, the cat is no longer in the bag. Despite telling me at a mock roster meeting in October that game control was something the committee never talked about, they are now openly talking about it again. Last week, chairman Gary Barta was asked to what extent the committee considers a team’s ability to control matches.
“Well, obviously every team has a little bit different style. Checking wins, when you think about watching games, is more important in my opinion than just a team just going up the score,” he said. “And I think we’ve talked in committee, when a team is in full control of a game, that can be defensive, maybe offensive, so it’s definitely something we look at. But every team is so different in their style that it just depends a bit on the team.”
So while it may not just be a matter of piling up points, it’s still better to build an early lead than a late one, even if the result is the same. However, there is no actual game controller stat. It is strictly an eye test.
With that in mind, here’s how I expect the CFP rankings to view their penultimate release Tuesday night.
Remark:This prediction is based only on results to date. It does not reflect the final projection for the play-off. The full bowl play-off and bowl projections until the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
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