Experts predict Tokyo Games without spectators if virus persists

As the Japanese sports world continues to fight the coronavirus epidemic, experts are beginning to question the likelihood that the Tokyo Olympics will take place under normal conditions when the games start in less than 150 days.

The pneumonia virus prompted Nippon Professional Baseball to delay the start of its season, the J-League to extend its suspension from football games and the 15-day spring tournament in Osaka to be held without spectators – an option that seems more feasible than outright cancellation of games given the economic stakes.

In a report released last Friday, SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. estimated that the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics would reduce the annual growth of Japan's gross domestic product by 1.4%.

The country's economy is already weakening after a drop in tourism, a slowdown in domestic consumption and the cancellation of large-scale sporting and cultural events across the country in March.

(Photo taken February 29, 2020, shows a preseason game between the Lotte Marines and the Rakuten Eagles at the Zozo Marine Stadium in Chiba, east of Tokyo, which takes place in camera.)

The International Olympic Committee and the organizers of the Tokyo Games remain convinced that the Olympic Games from July 24 to August 9 will take place as scheduled in the Japanese capital.

Cabinet Secretary General Yoshihide Suga reiterated the government's position on Thursday after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

But the persistent threat of the sudden viral epidemic suggests that the games could take place behind closed doors.

"It is not possible to cancel an investment of 3 trillion yen (about 28 billion dollars). What can be envisaged is to organize the games without spectators" , said Munehiko Harada, a professor in the Faculty of Sports Science at Waseda University.

Harada speculated that the scope of the games could be reduced if the organizers decided to cut contact sports like judo and wrestling from this summer's program to reduce the risk of infection .

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Last month, a senior IOC official said unofficially that the Games governing body could wait until the end of May to decide to cancel or modify the Games.

But Hideomi Nakahara, visiting professor at Yamano College of Aesthetics specializing in infectious diseases, said the epidemic is unlikely to be brought under control by then.

"Even if things are resolved by then in Japan, it will not be enough",

he said. "The crisis must be contained by May or June around the world, otherwise it will be difficult to hold the games (as expected)."

Nakamura also believes that varying degrees of infection from one region to another could lead some athletes to refrain from playing, as happened at the Rio Olympics de Janeiro in 2016 due to fears about the Zika virus.

"If participation is allowed from countries where the virus is widespread, there will be withdrawals from competition," said Nakamura.

Unlike COVID-19, however, the mosquito-transmitted Zika virus posed few threats to athletes and spectators at the Rio Games, as the virus had spread outside of Africa for several years early and adequate treatment was widely available.

(People watch the Tokyo Olympic Torch Relay in Olympia, Greece, March 12, 2020.)

"The situation is completely different this time because infections are spreading rapidly around the world," said Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor in the Department of Virology at the Graduate School of Medicine at Tohoku University.

A panel of Japanese government experts estimated that confinement of the new coronavirus could take months or even last beyond the year if the virus survives warmer weather.

The Olympic flame was bleakly lit without spectators present on Thursday in Ancient Olympia as the number of coronavirus infections increased in western Greece.

The Greek Olympic Committee has opted for a reduced version of the lighting of flames and handover ceremonies to stay on schedule, and Tokyo organizers have said they will do the same, as required, for celebrations during the Japanese stage of the torch relay.

The pandemic continues to derail preparations for the Games as an increasing number of Olympic qualifications and test events are postponed or canceled. Recent examples include the cancellation of an Asian wrestling qualification tournament in Kyrgyzstan and an Asian rugby sevens test tournament in Tokyo, as well as the postponement of a 3×3 basketball qualification tournament in India.

And while Japan is working to curb the spread of the virus, some of its Olympic team members choose to stay abroad during the final phase of Olympic preparations rather than go home and risk an infection.

(Japanese athletes parade at the national stadium during the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympic Games on October 10, 1964.)

The entire Japanese badminton team aims to continue training in Britain after the end of the English Open on Sunday before making their way to home. ; India Open at the end of the month.

The last badminton Olympic qualifying tournament, the Asian championships slated for late April, was transferred last week from Wuhan, China – where the virus originated – to Manila.

Several Olympic host cities are also feeling the impact of the virus before the Games. The Mongolian archery team has abandoned an Olympic training camp scheduled for late last month in Okazaki in Aichi Prefecture, while Colombian teams Table tennis and gymnastics canceled camps in Kitakyushu in Fukuoka Prefecture.

"It is unfortunate that it was canceled, but it cannot be helped if we consider the health of the athletes," said an official with the city of Kitakyushu. "Hopefully the crisis will be resolved soon and we can be fully prepared for the pre-Olympic camps in July."

Kitakyushu, one of around 500 host cities in Japan hosting international athletes from 167 countries and regions for camps and cultural exchange, plans to host 10 camps in July, including swimming and trampoline.