Wednesday was an absolute carnage at the National Bank Open, otherwise known as the Canadian Open or Canada Masters, in Montreal. The top three seeded Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas all lost, completely blowing the draw and opening the door for virtually any of the 16 remaining players to take home the title.
Even with the top seeds dropping like flies, there’s plenty of star power on the roll with Nick Kyrgios, Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime all in action on Thursday.
But it’s another exciting player, Gael Monfils, who could offer the best bet value in the Round of 16:
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ATP Montreal odds, predictions, tennis picks today
Gael Monfils (-125) vs. Jack Draper (+100)
Time: Approx. 7:00 PM ET
One of the most entertaining players on the ATP Tour, Gael Monfils, continued to shake the calm of a three-month hiatus with a win over in-form Maxime Cressy on Wednesday. Monfils needed a few tiebreaks to get the job done, but with two games under his belt now in Montreal, La Monf’s condition can probably be trusted for his upcoming match with up-and-coming Briton Jack Draper.
It’s been quite a season for 20-year-old Draper. Ranked outside of the top 200 in January, Draper is now in a position to finish in the top-50 with a win over Monfils.
And as impressive as Draper has been over the past eight months, this is still relatively uncharted territory for the Englishman. Draper has won 70% of his matches (42-18) and 79% of his hard-court matches in the past 52 weeks, but most of those have come on the Challenger Tour. At the highest level, Draper is 6-3 on hard courts (including qualifiers), and his results include a huge win (Tsitsipas), but also a loss to world number 229 Ramkumar Ramanathan.
In other words, Draper rises, but the way up in tennis is almost never a straight line.
Betting on sports?
And it’s fair to say that a player like Monfils, a ridiculous defender who can hold himself in rallies, should be able to counter Draper’s awesome engine. Both players will chase to the last ball, but Monfils’ experience should be vital against a player playing his first round of 16 match in a Masters 1000 event.
Draper has proven himself to be a dangerous opponent, but this seems like a classic overreaction to his stunning performance against Tsitsipas. Had these two played a few days ago, this line would have been eclipsed more towards Monfils, even if it was his first tournament since May.
Tennis Abstract projects Monfils as a 63% favorite, which translates to -170 on the money line. Even when you factor in the extenuating circumstances — Monfils’ rust and Draper’s uptrend — the price on La Monf still seems pretty cheap.
Tennis picks and bets today
The bet: Monfils -125 (BetMGM)
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