College football Week 6 opts against the spread

Let’s get back on track.

There were some bad beats, but I can’t describe my choices last week other than terrible. It was my first losing week of the season. Despite this, I gave myself a great cushion for the first four weeks and am still six games above .500 and hitting 58%.

Let’s get back to winning money with these seven games for week 6.

Last week: 2-6

General: 22-16

(Note: all time ET, odds from BetMGM)

No. 11 Utah at No. 18 UCLA

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: Fox | Line: Utah -4.5 | Total: 64.5

I think Utah is a bit overrated. Since that Week 1 loss in Florida, the Utes have racked up four straight wins. But the Utes were not as dominant as usual in the trenches on either side of the ball. Especially the running backs were not great. Additionally, Utah hasn’t had much of a downfield passing attack and star tight end Brant Kuithe is out for the season.

I think this works out well for UCLA, even after such a big win over Washington last week. Zach Charbonnet is the best running back the Utes have seen all year and Dorian Thompson-Robinson can give the Utah defense a lot of trouble in the running game, just like Florida’s Anthony Richardson did earlier in the year. Ill take the Bruins who get points home.

Choice: UCLA +4.5

Virginia Tech in Pittsburgh

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: ACCN | Line: Pitt -14.5 | Total: 41.5

Virginia Tech is up there with Colorado and Iowa one of the worst offenses in the Power Five. The Hokies are so bad they only scored 10 points against North Carolina, a team that lost 45 points and nearly 600 yards at Notre Dame the week before. The Hokies are going to battle a solid Pitt defense.

Pitts attack will also be difficult. Virginia Tech has a solid defense and the Panthers just lost to Georgia Tech as a 21.5 point favorite. There’s no way I can trust Pitt to cover more than two touchdowns, so I’m going to take the under. I know it’s low.

Pitts Offensive is in a rut. Kedon Slovis has struggled behind an overrated offensive line and with a group of receivers that just can’t seem to open. Theres also the injury to Israel Abanikanda, Pitts best running back. Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry is the former defensive coordinator at Penn State, so he has experience playing against Pitt.

Story continues

Choice: under 41.5

No. 9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Time: 4 p.m. | TV: SECN | Line: Ole Miss -17.5 | Total: 62

After that big home win over Kentucky, it can be a little difficult for Ole Miss to come out on the road against Vanderbilt with the same level of intensity.

The back half of the schedule for the Rebels is brutal and that game in Kentucky was really physical. I think Lane Kiffin will be relying heavily on the running game and his defense here. Couple that with Vanderbilt playing offensively at a slow pace and I think this game goes under the total.

The under is 4-1 in Ole Miss last five matches as a double digit favourite. The Rebels will jump to a lead and keep that clock moving in the second half.

Choice: Below 62

North Carolina in Miami

Time: 4 p.m. | TV: ESPN2 | Line: Miami -3.5 | Total: 66

The North Carolina offense is legit. Even as a freshman, Drake Maye is already one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC. The Tar Heels can score big points against a defense embarrassed by Middle Tennessee a few weeks ago.

At the same time, the UNC’s defense is brutal. Just because the Heels limited Virginia Tech last week doesn’t mean their problems have been solved overnight. Miami had a goodbye to get healthier and regroup after that horrific MTSU loss. Tyler Van Dyke is back in the starting line-up and has a good chance of a good performance after being benched in his last appearance. He set UNC on fire last year and should be able to have some success again.

Choice: More than 66

Washington State at No. 6 USC

Time: 19:30 | TV: Fox | Line: USC -13 | Total: 66

USC looked like it was already in cruise control mode with the Arizona state win last week. The Sun Devils have already fired their head coach and are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, but they moved the ball against the Trojans without much trouble, especially in the first half. Caleb Williams was also a little loose with the football at times, even throwing his first interception of the season.

Washington State is a much better team than ASU. Cam Ward is a dynamic playmaker at quarterback and this defense is quite common in the backfield. This number just feels too big, especially with a big trip to Utah looming for USC. I’ll take the underdog.

Select: Washington State +13

South Carolina at No. 13 Kentucky

Time: 19:30 | TV: SECN | Line: UK -10 | Total: 49

Kentucky has to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to Ole Miss last week and has a favorable match-up with South Carolina visiting Lexington. I don’t trust this British foul enough to reach double figures, but I do think this is going to be a pretty low scoring game.

The Kentuckys offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but the Gamecocks are last in SEC sacks and rank near the bottom in tackles for loss. UK should be able to lean on the run game in this match with Chris Rodriguez back in the lineup. South Carolina, meanwhile, has struggled to pitch, even in recent games against a lackluster competition. The run game isn’t much better either.

Six of the last seven in this series have gone under the total. Let’s do it again.

Choice: Under 49

Oregon State at Stanford

Time: 23:00 | TV: ESPN | Line: OSU -7 | Total: 56

Oregon State moved the ball well but was doomed by four turnovers (all interceptions) in its loss to Utah last week. The Beavers are back on the road this week but should face much less resistance against Stanford, a team that has lost 10 consecutive games against FBS teams, cannot stop the run and will be without its top cornerback, Kyu Kelly.

Stanford, back home after two tough road races, should also have some offensive success. The Cardinal is struggling to keep QB Tanner McKee upright, but Oregon State only has five sacks this year. Stanford has to throw the ball to win, and I’m confident the Cardinal can rack up enough points to make this a fairly high-scoring game.

There are also some trends that support this choice. The over is 16-6 in the Oregon States road games under coach Jonathan Smith. And in Stanford’s last 30 games as an underdog, it’s about 20-8-2.

Choice: More than 56