2023 NFL Draft Landing Spots: Round 1 (Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft started as expected with Bryce Young becoming the first overall pick. After that it was anyone’s guess where it would go. After an early run on quarterbacks, the first round saw two top 15 running backs and a late run on wide receivers. Let’s see where everyone landed and the initial reaction to their landing spots.

The final count for round 1, by position: 3 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE

Round 1, choose 1

The long, steady march to Bryce Young began in March when Carolina traded multiple picks to the Chicago Bears for the top overall pick. Now it’s official: the Panthers have their man.

Fantasy Prospect:

Bryce Young will be the starter from day one in Carolina, and he should be a first-rounder in rookie dynasty drafts. Young’s size is a legitimate concern for his long-term durability, and he may become a better quarterback in real life than in fantasy. I wouldn’t blame a dynasty manager for looking elsewhere for advantage. Still, Young has guaranteed playing time behind a solid offensive line, so he represents a solid choice for Superflex teams in need of a guaranteed starter.

Complete pre-draft Rookie profile

Round 1, pick 2

With Bryce Young out of the way, it was anyone’s guess what the Texans would do with the second pick. Instead of choosing between defense and offense, Houston drafted CJ Stroud at the 1.02, then traded the 1.03 for Will Anderson.

Fantasy Prospect:

The Davis Mills era is over in Houston. The Texans see Stroud as their quarterback of the future and he should have at least two years playing time to prove them right. I like Stroud more than Bryce Young, but I’m tempering my expectations for 2023 and for leagues with one quarterback. Houston has an expected win total of 5.5 games this season, and the team isn’t exactly dripping with playmakers in the skill positions. Rookie quarterbacks on bad teams don’t have a strong history of fantasy performance in Year 1, so it could be a rough time for Stroud in 2023. However, in Superflex, a guaranteed starter is a valuable asset, so Stroud is worth a top. -5 choice.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

Round 1, choose 4

The Colts chose Anthony Richardson’s advantage and athleticism at the 1.04, ending the early run on quarterbacks and surprising many who thought head coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard would go with a more experienced Will Levis.

Fantasy Prospect:

Instead of getting experience and repeats somewhere to back up, this design capital for Richardson puts him right in the spotlight. In three years we might look back and see that Richardson was this year’s most valuable player. It may also be that he no longer has a job in the same time. He’s so raw. However, new head coach Shane Steichen should be a boon to Richardson’s development, who comes to Indy fresh off the offensive coordinator gig for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts, have you heard of him, boy?! Richardson’s athleticism is off the charts and he represents a top-five pick in Superflex rookie drafts, but there’s still a chance he won’t start right away. There isn’t much competition outside of Gardner Minshew in the quarterback room, but Richardson may take a little longer to be NFL-ready. If he progresses quickly, he’ll have some solid offensive weapons to help him adapt to life in the competition.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

Round 1, choose 8

Do you hear that sound? That’s Jason wheezing, not from his infinite breathing condition, but from exhaustion after running circles around the room at Baller’s HQ. Despite the desperate need for a pass rush, the Falcons again go for an elite attacking talent with their first pick of the draft. Get up, Bijan.

Fantasy Prospect:

The Bijan minute? Oh dear, it’s just become the Bijan year. For fantasy purposes, this is about as good a landing spot as it is for Bijan. He’s locked and loaded as the 1.01 in every rookie draft, and landing Atlanta makes Robinson a marginal first-rounder in redraft competitions. His competition for touches is 5th-rounder Tyler Allgeier and 32-year-old Cordarelle Patterson. Don’t think about it too long.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

Round 1, choose 12

This was a shock. The Lions traded back from the 1.06 with the Arizona Cardinals and selected Jahmyr Gibbs at the 1.12.

Fantasy Prospect:

On the one hand, I don’t know what to think of this choice. Remember, the Lions just signed David Montgomery to a three-year contractin additionto already have DeAndre Swift on their roster. The Lions clearly don’t think Swift can last an entire season, but this is muddying the waters in Detroit. On the other hand, Gibbs was seen as a marginal first-rounder and now has top-12 draft capital. I’m interested to see what other moves the Lions make, but there’s a lot of uncertainty for Gibbs and his immediate fantasy impact. In rookie drafts, it’s better to draft talent than opportunity because situations change. If the depth chart remains unchanged, Gibbs could be the third Detroit comeback in redraft leagues and a mid-to-late first-rounder in rookie drafts.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

Round 1, pick 20

The run on wideouts finally began in the bottom of the first round, when Jaxon Smith-Njigba fell to the Seattle Seahawks. In many fake drafts, the Seahawks took a receiver here, but it was a surprise that JSN fell for them.

Fantasy Prospect:

Yes, Seattle already has two phenomenal receivers in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and yes, Geno Smith is probably wondering how he got so lucky. The Seattle offense is stacked and the Seahawks get a “D” grade for WR fantasy odds. It’s not an ideal landing spot, and the challenge for JSN in Year 1 will be putting in any kind of consistent weekly performance in an offense with so many mouths to feed. Geno Smith had a career year in 2022, but better quarterbacks than him struggle to consistently support three wide receivers. That said, wide receivers have a long shelf life and will typically outlast any situation they inherit as a rookie. Smith-Njigba has the skills to play in the league for a long time and he is by far the best WR in the class. In rookie drafts you could justify him getting anywhere from 1.02 to 1.06 and I wouldn’t argue too much.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

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Round 1, choose 21

Johnston was the second recipient of the board and what was his consolation prize? Justin Herbert. In a class of small receivers, Johnston stands out (literally) and lands in a powerful attack with plenty of opportunity to secure a role for himself.

Fantasy Prospect:

Johnston is in a pretty good situation in Los Angeles when he enters a reception room with 31-year-old Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Both players are battling injuries and Keenan Allen could be out in 2024 if the Chargers manage their cap. According to our Team Fantasy Opportunity analysis, the Chargers receive a “B-” WR Opportunity grade for Johnston. And of course there is Justine Herbert. Not too shabby. There is a chance for Johnston to start the season as the third wide receiver and move up to the WR1 for one of the few elite quarterbacks in the NFL. His landing spot gives him the chance to contribute in 2023, which is all you could ask for.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

Round 1, choose 22

Just before the draft, it was reported that the Ravens and Lamar Jackson had finally agreed on his new contract. On the first night of the draft, the Ravens drafted a new receiver for Jackson.

Fantasy Prospect:

Flower will have plenty of opportunities to contribute directly to Baltimore. Odell Beckham Jr. is not the elite receiver he once was, nor is Rashod Batemen the answer. The Ravens score an “A” grade in WR opportunity. The question in Baltimore will be whether reality ever catches up to the odds. Lamar Jackson struggles to support fantasy receivers given the run-heavy approach and the presence of Mark Andrews. The competition is small for Flowers, but the opportunity may not be enough to provide consistent weekly production.

Complete preliminary design profile

Round 1, choose 23

Adam Thielen is now in Carolina, so the Vikings chose Jordan Addison at the 1.23 to fill out the receiving core and replace Thielen’s target share of 17% starting in 2022.

Fantasy Prospect:

Minnesota is an excellent landing spot for a player like Jordan Addison. There won’t be the pressure and defensive focus that comes with being the WR1, but there is an opportunity to immediately become Kirk Cousins’ second option. Going in a similar place to the other three receivers in this round, Addison lands in possibly the best immediate situation: a passing offense with a proven quarterback and a host of free goals from Adam Thielen (107 in 2022).

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile

Round 1, choose 25

The Buffalo Bills completed a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars to move up two spots to get the first tight end of the draft, Dallas Kincaid. Perhaps most importantly, the Bills jumped over the Cowboys, who may have also considered using their first round on the tight end of the pass.

Fantasy Prospect:

Kincaid lands in a top-five offense and could be a real red zone option for Josh Allen. The draft capital from the first round bodes well for Kincaid’s chance of getting game time, but history shows that there won’t be much production for Kincaid in 2023. Kincaid should not be treated as anything more than a late-round flyer in redraft competitions.

Full Pre-Draft Rookie Profile