Best bets and picks for Friday, June 14

Stuttgart, Nottingham and 's-Hertogenbosch predictions and best bets for June 14

With the French Open just wrapping up, the tennis action will be all over the place until Wimbledon (which I've already seen a preview of). There are grass events in all different parts of the world (Stuttgart, Nottingham, 's-Hertogenbosch), and there are also some Challenger level events played on clay. I'll be taking a somewhat scattered approach over the next few weeks, taking advantage of the crazy amount of tennis to find value wherever I can. I'll then elaborate on things a bit further once we get to the Cinch Championships at the Queen's Club in London next week. With that in mind, keep reading for some of my best tennis bets and tennis predictions for Friday, June 14.

I'm going to quickly review some of my favorite picks below, but I usually have many more on the Pro Picks page. I also add some choices occasionally throughout the day as schedules can become inconvenient due to the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how the odds move. That said, keep checking the page throughout the day.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are deploying!

2024 record: 381-392 (+31.92 units)

Korda compound vs. Tommy Paul-Hertogenbosch

On Thursday I had Korda as the first leg in a losing fight, and the American took care of his part of the bargain. He earned a 7-5, 7-5 win over Luca Nardi, marking his second straight win in a row. Korda now gets a significant step up in the competition as Paul is the second seeded player in this tournament and is extremely difficult to beat. However, Korda's game is a little better suited to grass tennis, so I expect him to come away with a huge win here.

Paul is one of the fastest players in the world and his ability to play defense is valuable everywhere. But there's no denying that this is least valuable on grass, and this match will likely come down to hitting the ball. Well, Korda is one of the cleanest ball strikers in the world, which is why he was seen as a potential sleeper heading into Wimbledon last year. Obviously that didn't go so well, but this is a new year and I think he'll do some damage before we change surfaces again. Korda also went 3-1 against Paul in his career, so this is a match he should have confidence in.

But: Korda ML (+102 – 1.5 pieces)

Jack Draper vs. Frances Tiafoe – Stuttgart

I'm never excited about playing anything at -180 odds, but I like it when Draper wins and I don't trust him to cover a spread. The Brit is absolutely fantastic in this area, so I simply can't see him losing to Tiafoe. But Draper isn't as good of a returner as you'd like, so I can see him closing this out in long, competitive sets and I can even see him dropping a set. Still, Draper has a little too much all-round game for this version of Tiafoe. The American has not played good tennis this year, with his serve and returns falling from 2023. That's not what you want on a surface where those things are of utmost importance.

I also think Draper's ability to maneuver himself across a grass field will make a big difference here. He should have a slight edge on long baseline exchanges. When you combine that with his big serve and rock-solid net play, it's hard to see how Tiafoe will beat him on his favorite surface.

Inset: Draper ML (-180)

Milos Raonic vs. Alex De Minaur – Hertogenbosch

Raonic had more problems with Roberto Bautista Agut than I thought, and De Minaur took care of Zizou Bergs quite easily. However, I still find it difficult to imagine De Minaur sweeping the field with Raonic on grass. This is likely to be a match where De Minaur's mobility and toughness will ultimately allow him to progress, but the Australian is not a very good server and Raonic is one of the best servers in the world. And while that may sound like too simple a handicap, I just can't ignore that on a surface that rewards large portions more than any other. With that in mind, I'm taking Raonic to cover a 4.5 game spread. A 7-6, 6-3 loss would mean cover and that feels like a very realistic outcome. But I also see Raonic taking a set because of his ability to collect holds. So this just feels like a play that needs to be made.

Bet: Raonic +4.5 games (-142 – 1.5 units)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alexander Bublik-Stuttgart

Bublik is a very dangerous grass court player as he has an excellent serve, the ability to play at the net and the ability to change things from the baseline. Overall, it shouldn't surprise anyone if he does big things in the coming weeks. But Bublik is still a very erratic player, and his mental mistakes make it hard to imagine him beating Musetti in straight sets. Grass may not be Musetti's best surface, but he certainly has the game to win games on it. Musetti moves well and has serious power from both wings. He also has the ability to collect waitlists when dialed in as a server. With that in mind, I'm taking a stab at the Italian to win a set against Bublik. I don't think there is much separating these two players.

Bet: Musetti +1.5 sets (-155)

Added plays

I already have MUCH MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and are a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I'll probably add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you're looking for action.

Thursday plays

Click here.

I also had the following plays on the Pro Picks page:

Emilio Nava ML (-110) vs. Mattia Bellucci [Nottingham Challenger]
Matteo Gigante ML (-139 – 1.5 units) vs. Fabio Fognini [Perugia Challenger]
Ekaterina Alexandrova ML vs. Emina Bektas [Hertogenbosch] + Brandon Nakashima ML vs. Richard Gasquet [Stuttgart] (-126 – 1.5 units)

Tennis links

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis odds

Gill Alexander's Beating The Book podcast