Most (and Least) Valuable Fantasy Hockey Goaltenders – DobberHockey

This week we're back to wrap up our MVP series. We've completed assessments for centres, right and left wingers and defenders. Today we continue with goalkeepers.

The process will be largely the same as for skater articles, although different categories and scoring metrics will be used. “Most Valuable” is a tricky term that will depend entirely on the competition-specific context. For the purposes of this article, we are going to use the standard Yahoo points score to calculate the total fantasy points for each player. This year the stats include wins, shutouts, saves and goals conceded. This obviously means that there may be some general anomalies in your league depending on your settings, but it's a good starting point either way. To collect all this data, I export the Keeper Big Board Report for the whole season, and rearranging it a bit so I can have only the relevant fields.

The table below lists the top five fantasy producers overall for the 23-24 season. We'll start with the basic player information on the left (name, team, and total games), then go into some production stats (wins, save percentage, goals against average, and quality start percentage), and finally the average draft position and Yahoo standard competition fantasy points.

First of all: who were the five best goalkeepers this year?

Name	Team	GP	W	SV%	GAA	QS%	ADP	Imagination points
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK	WPG	60	37	0.921	2.39	66.7	52.9	777.6
JUUSE SAROS	SOE	64	35	0.906	2.86	54.7	54.6	674.2
SERGEI BOBROVSKY	FLA	58	36	0.915	2.37	63.8	121.2	673.2
JORDAN BINNINGTON	STL	57	28	0.913	2.84	57.9	194.7	665
IGOR SHESTERKIN	NYR	55	36	0.913	2.56	58.2	32.9	660.2

There are some very well-known names here. Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse SarosAnd Igor Shesterkin would have been the preseason favorites to make this list. But before we move on too quickly, let's take a moment to consider the value Hellebuyck has brought to his managers in 2023-2024. He's a whopping 100 fantasy points above second place. That gap is simply enormous. If we introduce a 30-game threshold to account for fewer active goaltenders in our percentage stats, Hellebuyck ranks first in save percentage, second in wins, second in quality start percentage, and third in saves (and games played, although these are of course connected). He was certainly an early goalkeeper, but provided top quality throughout the season.

The other name I wanted to mention here (don't worry, we'll get to Jordan Binnington in a minute) is Sergei Bobrovsky. Bob was the third goalkeeper according to these statistics and did so with his highest number of games played since 2018-19, his highest save percentage since 2017-18, his highest quality start percentage since 2016-2017 and the highest goals saved above average since 2017. -18. Actually, 2023-2024 was his best season in Florida. You know his age-35 season, five years into his contract, is exactly what we all predicted. Good thing he has a few more seasons, I guess?

Moving on to the value part of the equation. This explanation remains the same as in the previous articles, so I've added it again for quick reference:

In addition to total fantasy points, I also pulled average draft position data (ADP). These ADPs are based on preseason drafts, so don't take into account leagues and drafts that have started mid-season. The idea here is that if we compare draft position to year-end fantasy points for all players, we can get an equation that lets us say: 'on average, a player with X draft position is expected to get Y fantasy points'. Once we have that, we can compare that expected number to the player's actual number and see who performed the best based on their draft position. The ADP data below is compiled (averaged) from ESPN, Yahoo, and Fantrax ADPs for the 2023-2024 season.

Our next table lists the players who provided the most value once we took into account where they were drafted. I included their ADP data, the fantasy points expected given that ADP and then the difference between those numbers.

Name	Team	GP	W	SV%	GAA	QS%	ADP	Imagination points	Expected fantasy points	Difference
PETR MRAZEK	CHI	56	18	0.908	3.03	51.8	502.1	556.4	230.85	325.55
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK	WPG	60	37	0.921	2.39	66.7	52.9	777.6	476.12	301.48
CONNOR INGRAM	ARI	50	23	0.907	2.91	52	488.9	532	238.06	293.94
JORDAN BINNINGTON	STL	57	28	0.913	2.84	57.9	194.7	665	398.69	266.31
SERGEI BOBROVSKY	FLA	58	36	0.915	2.37	63.8	121.2	673.2	438.82	234.38

The most valuable goalkeeper by this definition was drumroll please Peter Mrazek? His ADP is so low that we probably can't consider him drafted. But I guess since someone actually drafted him, we should talk about the season he had. Mrazek played 56 games, the most of his career. That workload certainly made it worth a look, but Chicago was going to be terrible, so conventional wisdom would have suggested we stay away. But somehow he wasn't terrible. He got the volume, he had over 50 percent quality starts and had a pretty good save percentage. How okay? By comparison, some notable names with worse savings rates include Juuse Saros, Jake Oettinger, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Stuart Skinner, Tristan Jarryand Filip Gustavsson.

Okay, finally Jordan Binnington. Binnington has traditionally been everywhere. He has a good stretch and then loses the job. Has a great year and then loses the job. Somehow in 2023-24 he not only kept this job all season, but actually played quite well. It was by far his best season since 2019/20. Across the board – games played, wins, save percentage, quality starts, above-average goals saved, everywhere you look – Binnington set career highs or near career highs. But as always, inconsistency is the key to the game, so I certainly can't say that Binnington has broken new ground.

Now we move on to the least valuable. These guys all performed significantly worse than their draft slot.

Name	Team	GP	W	SV%	GAA	QS%	ADP	Imagination points	Expected fantasy points	Difference
PHEONIX COPLEY	LA	8	4	0.87	3.16	25	199.7	48.4	395.96	-347.56
JACK CAMBEL	EDM	5	1	0.871	4.5	20	247.3	26	369.97	-343.97
AKIRA SCHMID	N.J	19	5	0.895	3.15	26.3	190.8	126.4	400.82	-274.42
CRAZY FOOL	THE	19	9	0.892	3.55	31.6	164.1	162.6	415.40	-252.80
DEVON LEVI	BUF	23	10	0.899	3.1	47.8	141.9	207.8	427.52	-219.72

So obviously a lot of this table comes down to games played, but I decided not to filter it as heavily as the forwards because for goalkeepers, games played often comes down to value to the team and not necessarily injuries. Phoenix Copley and City of Husso The missed time to injuries was so obvious that it impacted their value, but honestly, it's not clear that being available for games would have led to more starts. We might give Husso a little more leeway, he was closer to a .900 save percentage, but he certainly wasn't good. Copley was downright bad in the games he was given.

It would be nice if we could find some reason for optimism here, but both Akira Schmid and Jac Campbell got at least one substitution and played themselves essentially insignificant to their respective teams. All of these guys had early opportunities and built on that potential advantage, but they all failed to perform quite dramatically.

Finally, Devon Levi. He's a little different because he's the young future of the franchise who actually failed at being great, but at least not as terrible as the rest of this list. He had by far the best quality start percentage and the best overall save percentage. Still, he wasn't great and didn't take the reins as we had hoped on draft day. He still has plenty of time to get into shape, though, so this isn't as dire a situation as some others.

Finally, I will enclose the column with a few names. These are the guys who didn't get drafted but put up the most fantasy points.

Name	Team	GP	W	SV%	GAA	QS%	Imagination points
CHARLIE LINDGREN	WSH	50	25	0.911	2.67	56	556.4
JOEY DACCORD	SEA	50	19	0.916	2.46	60	517.4
ALEX LYON	THE	44	21	0.904	3.05	47.7	452.8
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD	SJ	44	10	0.899	3.45	52.3	385.2
SAMUEL ERSSON	PHI	51	23	0.89	2.82	51	382.2

This is a nice list. Four of these guys are goalies who have made a serious run as their team's starters, even though they started the season as a backup. All four were a combination of beating their respective starters and being aided by injury. Joey Daccord Without an injury to Philip Grubauer, they probably wouldn't have seen much time, but the others showed promising moments and competed for starts even before one of their starts missed time.

Mackenzie Blackwood is very much in the Peter Mrazek category, playing surprisingly well on a very bad team. His save percentage isn't that good, but his quality starting number was still above 50 percent. He missed some time, so without those injuries he would have seen greater season value. When he was available, however, he had some surprisingly valuable stretches.

That's all for this week.

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