Intelligent Hockey: Best Bets for Stanley Cup Final Game 4

After Game 1, there were two ways to understand what happened in a misleading 3-0 Florida Panthers win. One interpretation was that the Edmonton Oilers had completely dominated the game and only lost because Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky stood on his head.

Certainly, there is truth in that. Another way to look at it is that even though the Panthers skaters did virtually nothing right in Game 1, they still won. They were toothless on the forelimb and cycle. Their defensive coverage was disjointed, with unusual stumbles when checking and struggles at box-outs. But Florida left the rink as the winner.

It seemed extremely unlikely that the Panthers' forwards and defensemen would play this poorly again, so there was a distinct possibility that the Oilers had just wasted their best chance to take control of the series. In retrospect, this turned out to be true.

Bobrovsky serves as a stopgap for the Panthers. Before the series, it seemed impossible to imagine the Oilers getting wiped out, but the Panthers don't actually have a weakness. They have depth at every position, incredible team defense and forwards who can score in a variety of ways. Even their special teams are fantastic.

Going into Game 4, I don't see the value in picking the winner. Instead, my bets are on one of the Panthers' strongest points: low scoring games. Especially coming off a game that yielded seven goals, I see Florida blowing Game 4 and think the unders are the game.

Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers
Saturday, June 15, 8:00 PM ET

At this point we understand what the Oilers plan is. In Game 1, coach Kris Knoblauch cited his team's territorial possession as a key reason why Edmonton fended off the Panthers forecheck. Although this territorial lead disappeared in Game 2, Edmonton regained it in Game 3.

After making heavy use of movement early in the series, the Oilers are now leaning on the low cycle, using low-to-high play to get shots from the point for tips and rebounds. Edmonton begs its defenders to contribute offensively, which has manifested as they sneak into the slot, adding an extra person to the forecheck that Florida has to account for.

In Game 3, Edmonton's defensemen were the catalyst for two of the goals. The second Edmonton goal of the game came from Philip Broberg, and on goal three, a Brett Kulak shot found Ryan McLeod's stick for a tip.

For three straight playoff series, the Oilers were able to shake off defenders by forcing them to chase them around the slot, with button hooks and knots creating chaos and creating space. Those days are over. The Panthers switches and man-to-man coverage are so strong in the cycle that the best time for Edmonton to explore the interior is when it can stretch Florida.

But the Panthers have also tried to weaponize the aggressiveness of the Oilers' defensemen. In the second period of Game 3, Aleksander Barkov made it his mission to rob the Oilers of anticipating exposure. After getting behind the defense but missing a backhand rush chance that sailed past the far post, Barkov had another rush chance. Later in the period, Barkov took advantage of Mattias Ekholm pinching at the top of the circle as he sprinted past him to generate a two-on-one.

I originally thought the Oilers would be able to fuel the Panthers rush with neutral zone turnovers, but instead it was the Oilers' aggressive forward line that was vulnerable to being beaten over the top.

In Game 2, the Panthers' play was nearly untouchable in a 4-1 victory. The Oilers faced zero risk chances at 5-on-5 per natural statistical stroke. The Oilers' expected goals 5-on-5 was a minuscule .49. And according to Stathletes, the Oilers off-the-cycle offense posted one of its worst games of the season.

Although Game 3 was a much more uneven performance, the Panthers have continued to effectively bottle up the Oilers' rush by layering their defense, spacing their defenders at the blue line and allowing the Oilers inside maintain the perimeter. After Game 1, Edmonton was forced to rely on its cycle and forecheck as the primary sources of offense at 5-on-5.

With the rush removed, a crucial option has been removed from the repertoire of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman. The Oilers have tried to expand the zone to soften the Panthers' leading edge, and one wonders if Edmonton's top players will be more willing to fly through the zone to create the rush like Warren Foegele did in Game 3. If that can't happen, it will reduce the Oilers offense to a more simplified approach that takes away the momentum from some of their top players. If the rushing game is negated, the Oilers' power play becomes the only outlet for the stars to use time and space.

A very simple way to summarize why this series is on the brink of a sweep is goaltending. Bobrovsky's Goal Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) is 5.18. Stuart Skinner's GSAx is -1.76. While that number would suggest that he has been a major weakness for Skinner, the gap between the two really exists because Bobrovsky has been ridiculously good. My belief in picking the unders in this game depends heavily on how well Bobrovsky plays.

According to Stathletes, Bobrovsky saved 37 of 41 shots from the slot and 19 of 20 from the inside slot. On the power play side, since the Panthers have made a concerted effort to take Hyman away as a backdoor option, the Oilers have been tied with a few cross-seam passes. And yet Bobrovsky was there to save them. Again and again. The Oilers have tested Bobrovsky with seven scoring chances on the man advantage and have yet to beat him. Structure or not, the Oilers are running out of answers because of Florida's man between the pipes.

There was always the danger that the team would falter as the Oilers' stars faded. And when Bobrovsky is playing this well, he doesn't need much run support. But there's a more subtle story about Florida's defense that's worth highlighting.

In back-to-back series, the Panthers have done a fantastic job shutting down two of the best net players in the world, Chris Kreider and Hyman. They have stymied the game's biggest superstars: Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin and McDavid and Draisaitl. A lot of the credit goes to defenders Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad, but it also speaks to the dedication to controlling 60+ yards that helps this team win. In Game 3, Florida didn't get the final change, but still thwarted McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman.

Florida distinguishes itself by making plays that take away space and open up space. With the score 3-1, Brandon Montour executed a pick on a zone exit to create space for Sam Reinhart to retrieve the puck near the boards. It was Reinhart's pass to Barkov that set up the winning goal. The Panthers' physicality and desire in one-on-one battles across three zones complements likely future Conn Smythe winner in goal, Bobrovksy.

When the score against the Oilers has been within one goal, the Panthers have a high danger chance against per 60 minutes of 8.07. As a point of reference, the NHL's best mark during the regular season was 9.02. And the Oilers' high danger chances per hour during the regular season were 15.02.

I'm not sure which team will win on Saturday, but I think it will be a low-scoring game. I want a flat line of total goals under 6 and total goals under 0.5 for both Hyman and McDavid.

Choices: U 6 Total Goals (flat line) -170, Connor McDavid Total Goals U 0.5 -190, Zach Hyman Total Goals U 0.5 -170