Why you should bet on the Under

This will be written in mid-late June. Somehow, college baseball is still being played.

The world isn't there yet with college football: the general public gets on board around August 11 every year. But if you care about profit totals and you like investing, now's the time to find out before things start to change in two months.

Remember, there is nothing magical about Vegas and the way the odds are created. The lines go up, and those who dig in dive in and define the market.

In college football, there will be more transfers and injuries, some teams on the schedule will start to look better, some will look a little shaky, and the win totals will fluctuate a little. But Notre Dame should remain relatively steadfast.

Right now there are a few places where the Irish win a total of 10 – stay far away from that – but most major spots like FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars have them at 10.5.

That's what you want, because when it comes to Notre Dame's 2024 win total – for now – UNDER 10.5 is the game.

That doesn't mean the Irish will have a bad year – quite the opposite.

I've been saying all offseason so far that they're going to be great, and that they'll make the expanded College Football Playoff at 10-2.

But this isn't about catering to the super fans, or making anyone happy with their team. This is about being coolly calculating, so here's why you're going with the bottom to Notre Dame at 10.5 (NOT 10).

I probably should have mentioned this to those who don't normally do this kind of thing. Preseason win totals are always based on the regular season only, so for schools other than Notre Dame, conference championships do not take this into account, and that includes playoff games.

And that's why it's never entirely wrong to go down on a team with a win total of 10 or more. You're one quarterback injury away from probably being right.

So what happens if Leonard suffers a setback during the season following his ankle surgeries?

Everything seems fine. The ankle has been stress tested and he will start using all systems this fall. But what if there is a setback or problem? The Irish backup options are good, and the rest of the team is strong, but remember: to win the OVER at 10.5, the Irish need to win – duh – 11 or 12 games. If Leonard is out for an extended period of time – and it doesn't have to be because of the ankle – you're in big trouble if you count on 11 or 12 wins.

Start this when looking at win totals. Where are the sure victories?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, there's always that 2022 Marshall game or the blunder against Stanford or even last season's Louisville game, but it's going to take something crazy for the Irish to lose to Northern Illinois, Miami University, Navy, Virginia, or Army.

There should be a base of five no-brainer wins. If one of these games happens to go the other way — perhaps Army's O works on the right day — Notre Dame's win total won't go above 10.5. And on the other side,

Really, none.

The Irish won't play Georgia in Athens or Ohio State in Columbus, and even in those two games they would be competitive. But achieving the win totals with this year's Irish team and this year's schedule is different than for, say, Purdue – you can sleep well thinking the Boilermakers will lose at Ohio State and have trouble at home against Oregon, Penn State and Notre Dame.

So that's a little problem here. Normally you'd like to see one game that looks like a sure loss, so all you need is one more to get below 10.5.

For example, Texas is also at 10.5, and it has to go to Michigan, host Georgia, go to Texas A&M and face Oklahoma. But …

You only need two.

In general, if you ever get a total win probability of 11 or even 11.5, you will ALWAYS go down. There aren't any on the board yet, but they are coming – Georgia, Ohio State, and maybe Liberty will reach 11 in some places in August. And when Notre Dame turns 11, it's just Christmas in a can.

You take the lower limit and assume that it is virtually impossible to remain undefeated.

Again, Notre Dame should be great. Could it go 12-0 with this schedule? Yes absolutely. That won't happen, but it wouldn't be insane; it happened in 2018. Could it be 11-1? Yes, it happened in 2019 and 2021, but when that happens, be happy that your team – if you're a Notre Dame fan – had a great year, you tip your cap and you move on .

This is why you are going down.

The season starts at Texas A&M. That is dangerous. The date at Georgia Tech is much less the case, but at least that's on the radar. The state of Florida is the state of Florida, and going to USC to end the regular season is a next-level concern.

OF COURSE Notre Dame will do whatever it takes to beat USC. But the Irish can't get a bye in the College Football Playoff, so if they're 10-1 and almost know they're in regardless of what happens in LA, that might be just enough to worry. There's a chance that USC desperately needs this win – and maybe Lincoln Riley desperately needs this win – and the Irish don't.

At the very least, it's still USC, it's still Los Angeles, and it comes a week after the Army's handling of that offense.

At Texas A&M, Florida State, at USC. All it takes is one loss against any of those three and everything else should be perfect. If the Irish win all three, they go above 10.5, you lose, and if you're here, you're happy.

Suppose there is one loss for these three, one failure elsewhere, and 10-2 is the much safer play.

2024 Notre Dame football schedule: 5 things to know about Louisville, September 28