T20 Cricket World Cup 2024 semi-final qualifying scenarios: rules, odds and points needed to progress from Super 8 groups

The race for the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup 2024 has started to heat up as the Super 8 matches are in full swing. South Africa and reigning champions England have already announced themselves as strong competitors after winning their Super 8 matches against the hosts USA and West Indies respectively.

Meanwhile, the other strong title contenders, India and Australia, are in a completely different group and will face each other in a huge clash in St. Lucia on June 24. So far, both teams have managed to remain undefeated in the competition. tournament and will aim to maintain the same momentum until the end of the competition.

Once the Super 8 clashes conclude, the four semi-finalists of the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup will be determined based on their group rankings.

For now, the tournament's top eight teams have been separated into two groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group will advance to the semi-finals of the competition.

• Group 1: India, Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh
• Group 2: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies

Here, The Sporting News takes a brief look at the qualifying scenarios for both groups and the four likely semi-finalists.

Rules for Semi-Final Qualification in ICC T20 World Cup 2024

In the Super 8 stage of the tournament, the top two teams from each group qualify for the semi-finals. If more than two teams have an equal number of points for qualification, the two semi-finalists from each group will be determined using the following process.

• The team with the largest number of wins is placed in the highest position.
• If two or more teams are tied for both points and wins, the team with the highest Net Run Rate (NRR) will be placed higher in the standings.
• If the two or more teams are also equal in Net Run Rate, they will be ranked based on the head-to-head matches played between them (points and then NRR in those matches).
• If the teams somehow remain equal, the team with a higher ranking according to the ICC Men's T20I Rankings will be placed higher. The position on May 31, 2024 is taken into account.

Current ICC T20I Rankings for Super 8 Teams: India (1st), Australia (2nd), West Indies (3rd), England (4th), South Africa (5th), Bangladesh (9th), Afghanistan (10th), USA (17th)

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Semi-final qualifying scenarios for teams in Group 1: India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Australia

Group 1 of the Super 8 round is much tougher than it looks, despite the two clear favorites for qualification in India and Australia. Afghanistan and Bangladesh have both recently developed reputations for playing the role of giant killers, especially Afghanistan.

Team	M	W	L	N/R	Ptn.	NRR
India	2	2	0	0	4	+2,425
Australia	2	1	1	0	2	+0.223
Afghanistan	2	1	1	0	2	-0.650
Bangladesh	2	0	2	0	0	-2,489

India

India started their Super 8 campaign well, with a 47-run win over Afghanistan in their first Super 8 match. They followed it up with a 50-run win over Bangladesh, who they thought had all but punched their ticket to the semi-finals.

However, Australia's shock defeat to Afghanistan has set the cat among the pigeons. India is still quite safe. However, if they suffer a big loss against Australia and Afghans beat Bangladesh, India, Australia and Afghanistan will all have four points each and then NRR comes into play. As long as the defeat against Australia is not extremely tough, India should get through it.

Even a washout against Australia will see India through.

Chance of qualifying: 90%

Afghanistan

Afghanistan are in stunning form in the ongoing group stage of the T20 World Cup. But after losing to India in the first match of Super 8, they managed to pull off a huge upset by beating Australia.

Now Afghanistan has a good chance of qualifying. But they have to beat Bangladesh in the last Super 8 match and hope India beats Australia. If India loses to Australia, Afghanistan will need to improve its NRR as it could decide who advances among India, Australia and Afghans.

And the Afghans have the advantage of playing their match against Bangladesh after India takes on Australia. They will know exactly what they need to do against Bangladesh to progress to the semi-finals. (For example, if Australia beats India by 1 point, Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by 36 points to catch up with the Australians' NRR)

Chance of qualifying: 50%

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Australia

The 2021 World T20 Champions, along with India, were the odds-on favorites to qualify from this group for the semi-finals.

They started with a win over Bangladesh, but a shock against Afghanistan has put the Aussies' qualification chances in real jeopardy. They now have no option but to beat India in the final Super 8 match. Anything else could cause them to be turned off. Even if they beat India, they can hope that Afghanistan loses to Bangladesh or that their NRR does not rise above Australia's if they win against Bangladesh.

Chance of qualifying: 50%

Bangladesh

Of all the teams in Group A, Bangladesh has the least chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. Bangladesh struggled in their group matches but managed to scrape out wins. But their Super 8 journey started with two defeats.

After their losses to Australia and India, their hopes of qualifying are all but over. Bangladesh's vague hopes are that they will beat Afghanistan and India will beat Australia. In this case, Bangladesh, Australia and the Afghans each have 2 points. And the Bengals also need a massive revival in their NRR, which is honestly not likely.

Chance of qualifying: 5%

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Semi-final qualifying scenarios for teams in Group 2: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies

Group 2 of the Super 8s is undoubtedly the most competitive of the two groups with heavyweights South Africa, England and the West Indies.

Team	M	W	L	NO	Ptn	NRR
South Africa	3	3	0	0	6	+0.599
England	3	2	1	0	4	+1,992
West Indies	3	1	2	0	2	+0.963
USA	3	0	3	0	0	-3.906

England

Reigning T20 World Champions England narrowly managed to qualify for the Super 8s as a number of events got underway. But in their first Super 8 match against the West Indies, the English recorded a dominant win by 8 wickets, sending their Net Run Rate soaring.

They suffered a narrow seven-point defeat to South Africa in the second Super 8 match. West Indies' one-sided win over the US raised some concerns for Jos Buttler and his team, but a resounding victory over the US dispelled all doubts. England become the first team to qualify for the semi-finals of the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup

Chance of qualifying: 100%

South Africa

The Proteas are always a threat at World Cups and have proven that once again by winning every match they have played in the tournament so far. They started the Super 8 stage by beating the United States. Despite a fighting effort, the US fell behind South Africa's total of 194 runs by 18 runs.

South Africa then defeated England in the second Super 8 match to take the lead in Group 2.

Despite having already won two matches, South Africa had to beat the West Indies in the final match to ensure qualification. And they succeeded after a very nerve-wracking finish to reach the semi-finals as winners of Group 2.

Chance of qualifying: 100%

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USA

The United States, co-host of the tournament, has already done a commendable job in qualifying for the Super 8s. They lost their first Super 8 match against South Africa, but nevertheless showed tremendous perseverance. However, their second match proved to be one-sided as the West Indians put on a show of dominance in front of the fans at Kensington Oval, Barbados. They lost their last Super 8 match against England and are officially out of the tournament

Chance of qualifying: 0%

West Indies

After a strong finish in the group stage with four wins, West Indies struggled against reigning champions England in their first Super 8 match. The Windies managed to win their second match against the USA with over 9 overs to go, taking their NRR into a comfortable zone.

But they lost the final do-or-die match against South Africa, eliminating them from the T20 World Cup.

Chance of qualifying: 0%

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How is the schedule for the semi-finals determined?

The semi-finals of the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup will be determined by the teams' positions after the Super 8 matches conclude. The matches for the semi-finals will be determined by the following process:

• Semi-final 1: Group A winner versus Group B runner-up
• Semi-final 2: Group B winner versus Group A runner-up

REMARK: If India qualify for the semi-finals, they will play the second semi-final in Guyana on June 27.

When are the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup semi-finals?

Semi-final 1 is scheduled to be played at the Brian Lara Cricket Stadium in Trinidad and Tobago on June 26, while Semi-final 2 will be played at Providence Stadium in Guyana on June 27.