Report: Sabers to buy out Jeff Skinner

Chad DeDominicis of Expected Buffalo reported Wednesday that a buyout of the final three years of Buffalo Sabers forward Jeff Skinner's contract is underway. The 32-year-old winger has Buffalo's biggest cap hit among forwards at $9 million per season. A buyout of Skinner's contract will save the Sabers $7,555,555 against the cap next season, and $7,333,333 overall. That gives Buffalo more than $31 in cap space to work with this offseason.

This isn't breaking news. Friedman and Marek were working on this a week ago.

Multiple sources have confirmed to me that the Sabers will buy out Skinner's final three-year contract, barring an unforeseen trade.

I discuss his BUF career and the reasoning for the move.https://t.co/eZNOSiqJqD

— Chad DeDominicis (@CMDeDominicis) June 26, 2024

A Skinner buyout will impact Buffalo's cap through the 2029-2030 season, as the penalty extends for double the duration of the buyout. Skinner's remaining cumulative cap hit of $27 million was more than the actual dollars owed, as the Sabers had to pay $22 million in base salary.

At age 32, the buyout ratio for Skinner is two-thirds, as shown Cap friendly. The Sabres' cap penalty is $2,444,445 per season, which will hinder the team in difficult contract decisions down the road. Fortunately, Buffalo has locked up most of its core players long-term, including Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson, Owen Power and Dylan Cozens.

Waiting another season for a Skinner buyout would benefit the Sabres' future more, but management is now feeling the pressure to turn the team around. After missing the playoffs 13 straight seasons, General Manager Kevyn Adams is ready to make some big changes to make the team a playoff contender.

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Skinner's performance

Skinner's 2023-2024 season was bumpy after a good start. It looked like it was going to be a repeat of 2022-2023 as he started the season with his trusted linemates, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. He regressed significantly in the second half of the season, losing his starting lineup and first power play role.

The habits Saber's qualities from every game last season there is a major downward trend. Skinner couldn't connect with Buffalo's second and third lines, whether it was Peyton Krebs, Dylan Cozens or Casey Mittelstadt at center.

Dividing the 2023-2024 season in half revealed two different stories. Skinner recorded five first-half “boom” plays, which are an “A-” grade or better. He also had no “bust” games, with a “D” grade or worse.

The second half was very different, as his average grade shifted to a “C,” which is not what you would want to see from a $9 million term. He also had more bust games than boom games, making him more detrimental than helpful to the team.

Overall, his grade distribution led to a consistent grade of “D-” on the season. Skinner's first half of the season was enough to put him ninth among all graded Sabers on the list, with an average grade of “C+”. That's still not what you would expect from your highest paid striker, who should be able to win games consistently.

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Skinner's WAR

Still, Skinner ranks fourth among all Sabers forwards PuckLucks WAR (wins above replacement) stat, behind only Thompson, Tuch and JJ Peterka. This statistic is adjusted for teammates, the quality of the opponents and the role, among other things.

Considering Skinner averages about 13 minutes per game at even strength and about two and a half minutes per game on the power play, the veteran adds just over three wins over an 82-game season compared to your standard call-up in the same role.

Evolving hockey isn't as generous to Skinner's situation in their WAR stat, making him the team's seventh-best forward. They estimate less than two-tenths of added win above replacement for the season. In their model, Skinner's defensive play is much tougher than PuckLuck's, which argues that some blame can be attributed to his teammates.

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Skinner's next team

So what's next for Jeff Skinner? Well, an official announcement from the Sabers could come as early as Thursday. The buyout window opens 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final, with Buffalo having until June 30 at 5:00 PM ET to announce the move.

If a team picks him up on a value contract, Skinner should pay big dividends as an equally strong scorer. He is coming off seasons of 24, 35 and 33 goals, 71 of which came at even strength.

His best fit would be with a center who can lead him around the net and work the puck into the zone. If that center is also responsible defensively, it could offset some of Skinner's misconceptions.

Playoff teams such as the Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders are looking for cost-effective scoring options on the wing. Considering he will reap the benefits of a bought-out contract over the next six seasons, there is less of a push for money and more of a push for fitness.

With 1,006 regular season games under his belt, it's time we see what playoff Jeff Skinner looks like.