Sports
Missouri Football has a soft schedule in 2024. So what?
A common theme as we approach the 2024 college football season is high expectations for Missouri. Tiger partisans and national media alike are enamored with the team's assembled offensive talent, incoming transfer additions and easy schedule.
Yes, Missouri has an easy schedule this fall. Perhaps a more charitable description would be appropriate, given that it is still an SEC schedule. It’s hard to say that a schedule that includes trips to College Station, Tuscaloosa, and hosting Oklahoma is easy, but that’s where we are right now. It’s really only easy in the context of the kind of schedules you can expect for a team in either of the two super leagues.
Outside of these three games mentioned above, Missouri should be favored in most remaining games. None of the four non-conference opponents are a powerhouse, and Vanderbilt is, well, Vanderbilt. Arkansas is rolling with Sam Pittman on the hot seat, Auburn is good but flawed, and Mississippi State is rebuilding in Jeff Lebby's first year. South Carolina is a team with sleeper potential, but Missouri has handled them in recent years.
There are two disadvantages to such a soft list. (Mizzou ranks 65th in the nation in College Football Networks' Strength of Schedule metric.) First, the online trolls from rival schools who will try to downplay Missouri's performance this fall because of the schedule. I've seen plenty of Tennessee and Oklahoma fans play that card about the 2023 team. Never mind those idiots. Some of you may enjoy swimming in the mud on social media; all power to you. Hopefully the team will give you enough backup.
Second, and more importantly, the team will have very little margin for error to achieve their realistic postseason goals. With only three high-leverage games remaining, the Tigers will need to go at least 2-1 in those games to be in the playoff discussion. A 1-2 record likely won't cut it, given the projections for the other nine opponents.
The opponents divided into three groups: four games in which Eli Drinkwitz's outfit will be heavy favorites and should cruise to victory even with an out-of-game effort: UMass, Murray State, Buffalo and Vanderbilt (one FCS and three FBS teams with an average preseason SP+ rank of 114.3). Then come five games in which the Tigers will be firm favorites and have business to settle: BC, SC, Arkansas, Auburn, MS State. (Average preseason SP+ rank: 52.6) And then the three make-or-break matches, all of which conveniently take place in the middle of the season. (Average SP+ rank in preseason: 10.6)
On paper, the Tigers don't have the same depth of tough opponents as other teams in the league. But they'll still get some respect and the benefit of the doubt from the national commentator class for their SEC presence if they can prove their worth in that trio of prizefights.
Play sharp football against these three teams in October and the Tigers can live up to their high expectations. A mid-season slump against the live portion of the schedule will ultimately see the Tigers miss their targets, as the rest of the schedule will not offer them enough opportunities to prove their mettle against the toughest teams in the country.
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