Team USA rules the medal table at the Summer Olympics. Will it happen in Paris?

Follow our coverage of the Olympic Games in the run-up to the Olympic Games in Paris.

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If you were to step into a time capsule and travel back in time to the halls of the US Olympic and Paralympic Committee in the closing years of the 20th century, you would undoubtedly hear a lot of talk about this sporting giant in Asia.

The meager thing you would hear in 1996 was that China would overtake (the US), said Bill Mallon, the world's leading authority on Olympic medal statistics.

The numbers were hard to dispute. China had well over a billion inhabitants. The Chinese economy was booming and there was a growing middle class.

The government was determined to invest in Chinese excellence in almost every facet of society, especially sports, because there are few better ways to make a grand statement about international dominance than dominating the world’s best international sporting event. It built sports schools and academies. Chinese sports officials scoured the countryside for young children with athletic talent and steered them toward a particular sport and specialty. Dominating that in the long run felt like holding back the ocean.

Until, of course, that didn't happen.

It turns out you can only win so many diving and table tennis medals, Mallon said.

What has happened instead is a period of international sporting dominance unmatched in the 130-year history of the modern Olympic Games, which began in 1896. Since 1996, the U.S. has won the most gold medals and the most medals at all Summer Games, with one exception.

At the 2008 Beijing Games, China's sports machine did what everyone predicted: winning 48 gold medals, more than any other country, including the US, which won 36. Michael Phelps, swimming GOAT, won eight. alone or as part of relay teams. That said, the US still won the overall medal race that year, with 112 wins, compared to 100 for China.

After that half-hiccup, however, the US went back to largely trumping the rest of the world, although China almost matched the US with gold medals in 2021 in Tokyo. Title 9, the landmark 1972 civil rights law that created countless opportunities for women's participation in college and university sports, has helped a lot. Women accounted for more than 60 percent of the U.S. medals in Tokyo.

The question now is how long that dominance can continue, especially amid a mixed formula for success in swimming and athletics, the country's two strongest summer sports, and not coincidentally the richest Olympic sports in terms of medals. During much of that period of dominance, having multi-event stars in the pool, like Phelps and Katie Ledecky, and to a lesser extent on the track, plus a pretty good gymnast named Simone Biles, helped a lot.

While Biles should still be dominant and Ledecky remains formidable, the US heads into the Paris Games without an athlete or two who will almost certainly collect a chest full of medals. Maintaining dominance will likely require a broader approach and some triumphs in less high-profile sports.

You've probably never heard of Eli Dershwitz. He's a 28-year-old fencer from Massachusetts who won the men's sabre world championship last year. He has a reasonable shot at becoming the first American to win a gold medal in fencing since 1904.

I try to keep expectations out of my head, Dershwitz said recently.

Americans also left Tokyo without a medal in rowing, the first time they had competed at an Olympic Games.

After receiving heavy criticism from athletes who felt U.S. Olympic leaders were placing too much emphasis on winning at the expense of their mental health, officials have shifted the benchmark for success somewhat from an obsession with the medal scoreboard.

That looks like counting gold and overall medals, as well as the number of individuals who win a medal. So a relay medal in swimming or track and field may count as four instead of one. If women's football can win a medal, that would count as 18.

In addition, USOPC CEO Sarah Hirshland says the organization will keep a close eye on which athletes are performing better than ever before at these Games.

We think about the number of people affected, Hirshland said. A relatively small number will win a medal, but many will strive to achieve personal bests, and there are protocols in place to measure them against their greatest potential.

The organization's reasons for this are twofold. It wants to ensure that athletes who have excelled under the brightest spotlight are recognized. It also knows that these Olympics are in some ways a step towards the biggest event on the calendar, which will take place in 2028, when the Summer Games take place in Los Angeles. A personal best in Paris could help athletes and the national governing bodies that oversee their sports get extra funding over the next four years.

Americans love winners, Rocky Harris, head of sports and athlete services at the USOPC, said earlier this year. We want to make Los Angeles successful.

Harris, more than any other Olympic official besides Hirshland, is responsible for figuring out where the organization should invest its resources. He played a similar role as associate athletic director at Arizona State University and then at USA Triathlon, where he helped the U.S. become a major power in the Olympic distance.

USA Triathlon continues to excel at finding a standout college runner or swimmer with a background in one of the other sports and helping them learn the third sport. The latest is Morgan Pearson, a runner at the University of Colorado who swam in high school and has learned to ride a bike well over the past decade. Pearson is among the top contenders for gold in Paris.

Like every other U.S. Olympic official, Harris knows that swimming and track and field will be the backbone of U.S. Olympic success. It won 29 medals, including 12 gold, at last year's World Athletics Championships, far more than any other country. In swimming, a newly dangerous Australian team won more gold medals, but America dominated the overall tally at the 2023 world championships.

That said, Harris has his eyes on Dershwitz and some of his fencing teammates. Like most everyone else, he’ll be a little shocked if the women’s eight doesn’t make it back to the rowing podium. He thinks some of the U.S. sailors have a shot at medals, too.

America also generally does well when the Olympics introduce new sports, because its size and wealth usually translate into having someone who is decent at just about everything. Sport climbing, skateboarding and surfing all made their debut in Tokyo. In each of them, the US took the podium. These sports are returning this year. The new sport in Paris is dawning, with American Victor Montalvo winning the men's world championship in 2023.

There may be another reason the U.S. is excelling in Paris this summer. Organizers built the Olympic Village without central air conditioning, citing sustainability and a design they say will keep athletes’ quarters cool. But Paris can get pretty hot in the summer. Heat can make it hard to sleep.

When American athletes complained about this to their representatives at the USOPC, Hirshland approved bringing air conditioners to the team at her organization's expense. She wants her team to feel comfortable, well-rested and enjoy the comforts of home as much as possible. If the competition is experiencing hot, restless nights, then so be it.

Consistency and predictability are key to Team USA's performance, Hirshland said.

(Top photo of Noah Lyles celebrating his 100-meter victory at U.S. Olympic Track and Field Trials: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)