2024 South Dakota State Football Game-by-Game & Win Overall Predictions

This year's South Dakota States football schedule consists of eight MVFC games, two FCS non-conference games, one non-D1 opponent and one FBS opponent.

Here are game-by-game predictions for SDSU, which is ranked No. 1 in the HERO Sports FCS Preseason Top 25.

at Oklahoma State

SDSU's 29-game winning streak will be tested immediately against a Power 4 opponent. It is currently the third-longest in FCS history, behind NDSU's 33-game and 39-game streaks.

Oklahoma State finished 10-4 last year and was ranked No. 16 in the final AP poll. The Cowboys have their star RB, veteran QB, four offensive line starters and 10 defensive starters back. I expect a closer game than some in FBS land, but Oklahoma State will be too much for SDSU and pull away for a 10-point win.

Loss

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vs. No. 12 UIW

This match will tell us a lot about both teams. UIW will be many people's favorites to win the Southland, although Nicholls has back much of the team that beat UIW last year (45-32 final score, but it was 45-19 at the start of the 4th).

The Jackrabbits should win, but the score will tell us how good UIW is or how good SDSU is. SDSU will have a top secondary in the FCS, making for an entertaining matchup against a Zach Calzada-led passing attack.

To win

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against Augustana

This will be a fun game for the state – Augustana is a D2 program in Sioux Falls. But it probably won’t be a game that FCS observers will be watching after the first quarter.

To win

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in Southeast Louisiana

A decent non-conference matchup. SLU made the playoffs in 2019, 2021 and 2022. But the Lions fell to 3-8 last year. SDSU should win easily if it plays clean ball.

To win

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in Northern Iowa

SDSU may have banished its UNI demons last year, beating the Panthers 41-6. UNI previously had a 4-2 record in Brookings since 2015. A trip to Northern Iowa this fall won't be easy, but SDSU's elite secondary should be able to slow down what appears to be a pass-happy UNI offense.

To win

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vs. No. 23 Youngstown State

Will the momentum of YSU's program continue? Or will things slow down after ten players leave for the FBS, nine of them on the defensive side? The Penguins, on paper, appear to be a borderline playoff team entering 2024. A week before the NDSU game, the Jackets could see a closer game here than expected. But SDSU should get a home win.

To win

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at No. 2 North Dakota State

This is a coin tossing game. I could easily make a case for why the Bisons will win: Tim Polasek giving the most fiery speech at the Fargodome since 2016, Mike Houston, the home crowd eager to see NDSU beat SDSU for the first time in the 2020s, and an experienced Bison squad motivated to break a five-game losing streak.

But on paper, SDSU still seems like the better team.

The gap between the two was large in defense last year. This fall that should narrow down as I think NDSU will be much better and more consistent on defense. But the Jackets will still have the edge with eight of their top 13 tacklers returning, led by an experienced secondary and linebackers. And despite SDSU losing several offensive players to the NFL, you could argue that NDSU actually has more offensive question marks than the Jackets. Both have top-tier QBs. Both lose their top two wide receivers, but SDSU has the most productive returning WR (in receiving) of the two in Griffin Wilde. Both lose their best running backs, but SDSU gets back the most productive returning RB of the two in All-Conference selection Amar Johnson. NDSU returns just two starting offensive linemen. SDSU has three if you count UND transfer Sam Hagen, along with All-American Gus Miller and All-Conference Evan Beerntsen.

To win

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against No. 5 South Dakota

Back-to-back rivalry games for SDSU.

Some SDSU fans think USD's rise last year was lightning in a bottle. But USD has the pieces back to continue building on its breakout season of 2023. Enough to close the gap from last year's humiliating 37-3 loss to SDSU? Maybe not.

A week after a physical game at NDSU, the Jacks could be back in contention against the Coyotes. However, SDSU will still have too much firepower, especially at home.

To win

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against Murray State

Murray State is seeing a talent overhaul on its roster, with 23 FBS transfers. While that may be exciting to some, it doesn’t do much for me. I’ve seen plenty of FCS teams get worse after signing double-digit FBS transfers. Until I see how it plays out for Murray State, it seems like SDSU will coast to victory.

To win

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in North Dakota

UND is one of the toughest places to get a win. In the final stretch of the regular season, I don't expect a disappointing performance from an SDSU team with 28 seniors on its roster. UND has preseason question marks on defense, on the o-line and at quarterback.

But fun fact: Mark Gronowski's last loss to an FCS team as a full-game starter was at UND on February 27, 2021.

To win

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against No. 9 Southern Illinois

SIU will be a solid team in 2024, although the Salukis still have some questions. There is an unknown quarterback and only four starters returning on defense. I expect a sharp performance from SDSU on Senior Day.

To win

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at Missouri State

Missouri State's final game as an FCS program, and the Bears could go out with a bang.

But they don't have much to play for anymore, both in terms of record and because they are ineligible for the playoffs as part of the FBS transition. SDSU has plenty to play for as I expect at least four teams to compete for a Top 2 playoff seed and home field advantage in the final week of the regular season.

To win

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Regular season record prediction: 11-1

We set SDSU's regular season over/under win total at 10.5.

Oklahoma State will be tough to come in and pick up a win. At NDSU, it’s a coin flip, while road trips to UNI and UND are rarely easy. Add in four home games against ranked opponents and it’s a challenging schedule. But with an offense led by Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski, and eight of their top 13 tacklers returning from last year’s historic defense, the Jacks appeared poised for a regular-season record around 11-1 or 10-2.