Kate Magdziuk's Must-Draft List for the 2024 Season

New Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones ended his 2023 campaign on a red-hot streak: However, the recent past has not affected his average draft position one bit.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens enters his third year as his team's undisputed WR1, with plenty of potential for fantasy football managers: He is currently drafted as a WR3 with an average draft position outside the top 24 wideouts.

Checking out PFF Fantasy Football Rankings:PFF's fantasy football rankings feature expert ratings, projections and our powerful schedule stats.

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

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For the past year, PFF has been home to the majority of my written fantasy football content, featuring my toughest opinions and boldest predictions. Now, it’s time to deliver some bittersweet news, that this will be my final article with PFF Fantasy as I prepare to pursue the next opportunity in my career (more on that later!). I couldn’t leave the team without a bang, though, so as a parting gift, here are seven of my must-draft fantasy players for the 2024 season.

Average draft position (ADP) data comes from FantasyPros.

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QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Current ADP: QB11 (eighth round)

It's not often that fantasy football managers see an opportunity to draft a quarterback with legitimate top-five upside in the eighth or more round of the draft, but this is definitely one of those times. Rookie Quarterback Jayden Daniels is that the guy.

It's no secret that rushing upside is a common theme among fantasy league high scorers. After all, fantasy football's QB1 has had 500 or more rushing yards in four of the last five seasons. Now, even as a rookie, it's hard to consider even five starting quarterbacks with more rushing upside than Daniels (Josh Allen, Jalen hurts, Lamar Jackson, Anthony RichardsonWhat these quarterbacks have in common, aside from their rushing upside, is the fact that they are all picked in the top four rounds of the draft on average.

In 2023, Daniels became the only quarterback in college football with a 90.0-plus PFF passing grade (92.0) and rushing grade (92.4). He ranked second among all quarterbacks with 1,301 rushing yards, adding 10 rushing touchdowns to the 40 he threw for, with an 8.4% big-time throw rate to complement his 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate that ranked bottom 12 in the league. There’s no better value than Daniels for the upside he provides, in a Kliff Kingsbury system that produced a career-best 819 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in 2020.

RB Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

Current ADP: RB28 (seventh round)

While most fantasy managers have their sights set on a second-year RB DeVon AchaneI still think the tea leaves speak in favor of the veterans Raheem Mostertmaking his seventh-round ADP look like an absolute steal, barring something unexpected. Achanes’ hype level is one that is well-deserved, given his 93.1 rushing grade, which led all running backs. He also averaged an absurd 7.4 yards per carry and set the highest fantasy RB scoring performance of all of 2023 with a 49.3-point outing in Week 3.

The hype, however, ignores the many signals the Dolphins’ coaching staff has given that Mostert is the most important player returning to the squad in 2024. Consider the following:

• Despite an incredible performance by the then rookie DeVon Achanethe Dolphins have re-signed Raheem Mostert this off-season to a new two-year deal worth $9.075 million.
• Mostert, who led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2023, finished as the overall RB5 on the season, including four top-five weekly finishes. He ranked second in the league with a 91.7 PFF rushing grade, and ranked in the top 10 in missed forced tackle rate (24%), yards after contact per attempt (3.3) and first down/touchdown rate (27%). So yeah, he was Also pretty good.
• HC Mike McDaniel himself recognized that their backfield is largely led by Raheem [Mostert]. Mostert's use of Achane in critical situations spoke volumes, especially inside the five-yard line, where Mostert saw 20 carries to Achane's five.
• Many will point to Mostert's health as a hindrance to a consistent workload heading into his age-32 season, but he has missed fewer games over the past two seasons (three) compared to Achane in his rookie season alone (six).

In short, why draft Achane in the second round when you can draft Mostert in the seventh round?

RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Current ADP: RB19 (fifth round)

When most fantasy football managers remember Aaron Jones 2023 campaign, they remember as a disappointing one. He missed six games on the year due to hamstring and knee injuries, as he only finished in the top five once all year, which came in Week 1. However, they may forget Jones’ red-hot finish he put on from Week 15 all the way through the postseason, when he was finally healthy again.

In that six-game span, Jones led all running backs with a 90.9 rushing grade, averaging 5.5 yards per rush attempt and a whopping 120 scrimmage yards per game (fourth most). His 32.8% first down/touchdown rate led all running backs with 50-plus carries in that span, while also ranking in the top five with 3.8 yards after contact per attempt and a 25% missed forced tackle rate. So no, Jones is indeed not crops, even heading into his 29th season. With limited competition in the Vikings backfield for touches (Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu), Jones could face a significant workload that far exceeds his ADP in the fifth round.

RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

Current ADP: RB25 (sixth to seventh round)

If you've been following my work for a while, you probably know that I'm a sucker for Zack Moss since his last year at Utah. He absolutely dominated in 2019, posting a 91.5 rushing grade for the year while ranking near the top of his class in key stats like missed forced tackle percentage (38%) and yards after contact per attempt (4.4). Things never really took off with the Buffalo Billsbut he found his way to the Indianapolis Colts via a trade for his first real chance to lead a backfield thanks to an injury to superstar Jonathan Taylor.

In a four-game stretch without Taylor in the lineup, Moss totaled 562 rushing yards and three touchdowns, adding 128 yards and two scores through the air. It was enough to earn him a two-year, $8 million contract with the Bengals this offseason, and suddenly the starring role in one of the league's most prolific offenses is Moss's.

Although I am in my second year Pursuit Brown showed some impressive flashes as a rookie, never playing more than 18 offensive snaps in a game, and failed to put in much work in the most crucial areas of the field, earning just seven total carries in the red zone to Joe Mixons 59 and did not register a single carry inside the five-yard line (Mixon had 21). It seems likely that Moss will assume that Joe Mixon type of role and see what type of volume will outperform his current draft cost of RB25.

WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

Current ADP: WR28 (fourth round)

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver and former second round pick George Pickens enters 2024 with a chance at a real breakout season, and his ADP as the 28th wide receiver starting certainly doesn't diminish that.

Pickens has made his mark with big, eye-popping plays, as four of his five touchdowns in 2023 have been 40-plus-yard plays, the second-most plays in the league. Despite ranking 27th in targets at the position, his propensity for big plays has seen him rank 16th in the league with 1,140 receiving yards, earning him a top-10 ranking in yards per target (10.96), yards per reception (18.1) and yards after the catch per reception (6.49).

Pickens not only has the opportunity to significantly increase market share, Diontae Johnsonbut he's also now paired with a starting quarterback who complements his skill set better than anyone he's played with thus far in his career. Russel WilsonPickens, who ranked 10th in the league with a 99.3 receiving grade on targets of 20+ yards, will now catch passes from Russel Wilsonwho had a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on such throws last year and a 92.3 passing grade, ranking him 11th among quarterbacks.

WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current ADP: WR17 (third round)

Bucs-WR Mike Evans carries the highest average draft position of any player on my must-draft list, currently a third-round pick as the 17th wide receiver off the board. Still, there appears to be some value to be had from the soon-to-be 31-year-old veteran, who hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in fantasy points per game since 2017.

Evans is about the safest fantasy player you can find, hoping to tie with HOF'er Jerry Rice for the NFL record for most consecutive seasons of 1,000 or more receiving yards approaches 2024. His safety floor is just as exciting. He still has significant potential despite his age as the favorite target for returning QB Baker MayfieldEvans led all Buccaneers receivers with a 23.8% target rate on routes run during the 2023 season. He also led the team in total targets, red zone targets and end zone targets.

It wasn’t just the sheer volume of opportunities Evans saw in his first season at quarterback under Mayfield that made his 2023 campaign special. He was also incredibly efficient with those opportunities, ranking in the top 12 among wideouts (min. 25 targets) with 2.31 yards per route run, 26.7 yards per reception and 43 explosive plays. Fantasy managers may be a little more reserved about Evans due to his age, but his game was never built on athleticism as much as skill, refinement and playmaking, which should result in another year of value to fantasy managers.

TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Current ADP: TE9 (seventh round)

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake FergusonThe rise of fantasy to relevance has not been as dramatic as that of Sam LaPorta or Trey McBrideThere is no doubt, however, that his chance as a primary target for QB Roof Prescott could give him another leap forward in his third year.

Ferguson wasn’t the most efficient tight end in the league last season. He ranked eighth in the league with a 76.6 receiving grade, 15th in the league in fantasy points per route run and 13th in fantasy points per target, nothing to write home about, even despite finishing the year as the overall TE9. There was one area where he did stand out, though, and that was the number of high-value opportunities Ferguson saw in the red zone and end zone.

Among tight ends, Ferguson was tied for the third-most red zone targets (24) and tied for the second-most end zone targets (nine). While touchdowns are a largely unstable stat on an annual basis, Ferguson will essentially fill a WR2 role in an offense that ranked sixth in the league with 50 offensive touchdowns while leading the league in both red zone plays (247) and goal-line plays (68). Expect this potent offense to continue to flow Roof Prescott, CeeDee Lam and their WR2 Ferguson after neglecting the run game this offseason.