Wimbledon Predictions: Free Tennis Tips for Day 5

Wimbledon Predictions & Best Bets for Day 5 – July 5:

The short grass season is almost over, as we’ve been in Wimbledon for a week now. It’s been an exciting start to this tournament, but things are only going to get more interesting from here. With that said, let’s take a look at Day 5 of action at the All England Club, taking place on Friday, July 5th. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks for a day that will see stars like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Coco Gauff in action.

I will also be posting more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I will be adding picks every now and then throughout the day as I like to see how the odds are developing. So keep checking that page every few hours if you want more of my picks. I will also be posting plays for smaller tournaments on that page.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting on!

2024 record: 472-475 (+31.18 units)

Paula Badosa vs. Daria Kasatkina

Kasatkina secured a title in Eastbourne last week, beating Xinyu Wang, Yue Yuan, Emma Raducanu, Jasmine Paolini and Leylah Fernandez. It was a very impressive week for the talented Russian, who also won her first two matches at the All England Club in straight sets. The problem is that Kasatkina now faces a red-hot Badosa, who is 4-1 on grass this season and has been brilliant in London so far. Badosa was an underdog in her opening match against Karolina Muchova, but the Spaniard won 6-3, 6-2. She then defeated Brenda Fruhvirtova in a 6-4, 6-2 victory in the next round. Badosa looks healthy at the moment and is as good as anyone in the top 10 when she can get her game going. For that reason, I'm backing Badosa as an underdog here.

Badosa has shown she can beat Kasatkina before, having won two of the four matches between them. Badosa also happened to win 6-1, 6-1 when they met in Stuttgart last year, giving her a decisive victory in the most recent meeting between them. That makes it a little difficult to understand why Badosa is available for such a favorable number, but I'm not going to think twice about it. Kasatkina may have Badosa slightly beaten in terms of baseline play, as she has a bit more variety than the Spaniard. But Badosa counters that with a much better serve than her opponent. That's hard to ignore in a grass court environment.

Bet: Badosa ML (+146)

Denis Shapovalov vs. Ben Shelton

I was on the wrong side of Shelton’s final match, having backed Lloyd Harris to beat him. It was an absurdly competitive five-set match that could have gone either way. But Shelton dug deep into the fifth-set tiebreaker and pulled through. Overall, it was an impressive performance from the American, who has now reached the third round of all four majors. That’s rare for a player who’s only 21. I still want more from Shelton on grass, though. His serve is a huge weapon everywhere, but he’s still a little vulnerable when real rallies start to form. He’s also just not that big of a threat as a returner. That said, I don’t really see why Shelton is a favourite against Shapovalov, who has won a fair few matches on this surface and even reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon in 2021.

Shapovalov is a player who is very difficult to beat, because he often gives his opponents chances. Shapovalov can lose his concentration for very short periods of time and those mental breakdowns are often his downfall. But Shapovalov is ready for this match. He has undoubtedly heard all the hype about Shelton and he wants to show the world that he is the better player here. In the end I think Shapovalov will get the job done. Both guys are hard to break, but Shapovalov is a little better when he is not serving. That should make the difference in the end.

Bet: Shapovalov ML (+134 – 1.5 units)

Frances Tiafoe vs… Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is the reigning Wimbledon champion and also happened to win the French Open last month. So it’s probably a little strange that I haven’t been impressed with him lately. But it is possible to win matches without playing your best tennis, and that’s exactly what Alcaraz has done. But he’s going to have a hard time covering big spreads when he’s up against better opponents, and Tiafoe definitely represents a leap in talent level from what Alcaraz saw in the first two rounds. So I’m playing the American to cover that big spread.

These two clearly had a very close match at the 2022 US Open, where Alcaraz stopped Tiafoe’s dream run and went on to win his first major. And I imagine this will be another very competitive match. Tiafoe is not a big player, but he plays like one. He has a very big serve and the ability to consistently win points at the net. That makes him a good match for grass, and it should make it difficult for Alcaraz to clear the court with him. If Tiafoe does his job as a server, he will go deep into sets. And I honestly think there is a chance he will win one or two of them. Alcaraz should eventually pull out a win because he is a better all-around player, but the Spaniard can play with his food at times. He did in the first two rounds. And he is still not a very reliable server.

Tiafoe is also a player who likes to play in big games. He likes a good atmosphere and he will want to put on a show here. So, even if Tiafoe did not have a great 2024 season, I think he will turn some heads this season. He looked extremely sharp early in this tournament.

Bet: Tiafoe +7.5 games (-141 – 1.5 units)

Added plays

I usually have a LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count toward my record and are a huge part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I'll probably add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you're looking for action.

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