Fantasy Football: Post-hype draft values ​​are worth another chance after disappointing seasons

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Fantasy football managers can have very short memories, especially when it comes to players who underperform compared to their draft expectations. Taking advantage of values ​​that arise due to negative public perception is a useful part of the fantasy draft season.

This article highlights some players who are seeing a drop in perceived value, in part due to the recent bias of their 2023 campaigns.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

While his QB13 finish was a disappointment compared to expectations, Trevor Lawrence showed what we all expected from him for fantasy purposes from Week 11 onwards, as he went from the QB22 in fantasy points per game among guys with at least four starts in Weeks 1-10 to the QB6 in that same category for the final seven games of 2023. And that was without Christian Kirk for five of those games.

The fourth-year signal-caller has the skill set to be an elite fantasy asset, including a solid arm and some wheels, and this year he gets fresh weapons in rookies Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, plus a healthy Christian Kirk. Lawrence is drafted as the 22nd QB but has top 5-8 upside if he can remain consistent in 2024.

Backrunners

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots

It was a tough finish for Rhamondre Stevenson as the RB30 in half-PPR points per game last year, as he averaged just 51.6 yards on the ground and 19.8 receiving yards in the 12 games he played in. Ezekiel Elliott has been replaced by Antonio Gibson in an offense devoid of big-time playmakers, so there's a chance Stevenson can bounce back and be the zero-RB hero we all wanted in 2023.

The good news is that he's not a third-round pick, but the drafters are currently costing him a fifth or sixth-round pick, and he has the potential to surpass his current low-end RB2 status in a contract year.

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

Seattle was a run-first, run-ven team under Pete Carroll, but Zach Charbonnet was used more in a complementary role than expected during last year's fantasy draft season. Charbonnet ranked as the RB56th in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis, but in games in which he appeared in at least 61% of the snaps (Weeks 11-13), the rookie saw 19.7 touches per game, which was sixth among RBs, and which translated to 9.7 half-PPR points per tilt, which was RB24th in that span.

Now that the Seahawks have a new coaching staff, it remains to be seen how hard they will run. However, we have to assume that Charbonnet will get more work and put up better numbers in 2024 than his current draft position suggests.

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Wide receivers

Calvin Ridley, Titans

It wasn’t a completely disappointing season for Calvin Ridley in his one year as a Jaguar, as Ridley had a 22.5% target share and ranked fourth in the NFL in red-zone targets, but it didn’t quite translate to his projected production. Ridley’s WR26 finish in half-PPR points per game (11.3) earned him a fantasy WR2, rather than his WR1 expectations.

Now with the Tennessee Titans, he's part of a potentially more pass-heavy offense under new HC Brian Callahan, who also stated that Ridley's role would be very similar to that of JaMarr Chases for the Bengals. That could be huge for his fantasy prospects, as Ridley would run more slot and intermediate routes compared to the typically longer, low-percentage stuff he saw from Trevor Lawrence.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

JSN got off to a slow start in his rookie season thanks to a wrist injury, but following Seattle's Week 5 bye, he's averaging 8.2 half-PPR points per game as the overall WR40 in that span. He's primed for a sophomore revival in what should be a more pass-centric offense under new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb, plus an aging Tyler Lockett doesn't hurt his situation.

Jameson Williams, Lions

Williams played in just six games during his rookie campaign after suffering a knee injury in the 2022 NCAA title game, but the hype was there and he was still drafted as a WR6 on most platforms, but finished with just 2.4 PPR points per game, half the WR135 in that category. Last year, the Detroit WR began serving a gambling suspension that was originally six games but was then reduced, and he was able to rejoin the team in Week 5. Williams was slow to settle in, and inconsistencies prevented him from becoming a reliable fantasy asset.

This year we saw Lions HC Dan Campbell label Williams as a man on a mission and the most improved, and he’ll have less competition for deep balls now that Josh Reynolds is no longer on Detroit’s roster. As a bonus, the Lions are playing 14 of their 17 games in indoor stadiums in 2024, which could help with wind on those downfield balls.

Jahan Dotson, Commanders

After a promising rookie campaign as the WR39 in half-PPR points per game, Jahan Dotson was set up for a breakout year in 2023 with Eric Bienemy calling the plays, but he fell short, posting just 518 yards on 49 receptions with a disappointing 10.6 yards per reception. Curtis Samuel is now in Buffalo, giving Dotson plenty of volume behind Terry McLaurin. There’s also a new coaching regime in place along with a fresh, uber-talented QB under center in Jayden Daniels.

With likely improved QB play, Dotson should see more opportunities for both volume and scoring chances, and he could be a steal for his current draft capital.

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This article was originally published on 4for4.com

Jennifer Eakins is a proud alumna of UGA's Grady College of Journalism and has worked in the sports industry for over a decade. She has worked for CNN Sports, the Atlanta Hawks, and the Colorado Rockies. Her first fantasy football draft came in 1996 when she selected Ricky Watters with the first overall pick, and she has been a fantasy degenerate ever since.