Fantasy Football: Key ADP Gains and Fallers for Week 2 of the NFL Preseason

Fresh off a full week of preseason action, we have ADP movement across the board! We started off last week with the risers and fallers with a set of players seeing movement based on training camp hype and injuries.

This week most of the movement can be attributed to Real football.

The weekend was certainly full of hype, but many teams blessed us with important indicators that we can apply directly to our fantasy drafts. And as a result, this week’s Risers and Fallers list has a theme that focuses on hotly debated players with uncertain positioning on their teams.

Let's start with a riser and faller combo that I've been waiting to talk about for a while now. same backfield!

FALLER: Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans

RISER: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

I'm not kidding when I say I've been patiently waiting for Pollard to fall and Spears to get up. specifically for this article.

I’ve spent much of the offseason debating who the Titans’ true RB1 is. Like many fantasy analysts, I’d hoped Derrick Henry’s departure would mean Spears could step up to lead the way again after a promising 2023.

Instead of starting Spears and adding a complementary short-yardage back, the Titans added Pollard, a back who fits Spears' profile very well.

All the offseason debates can finally be put to rest as the Titans were very generous and gave us a taste of how they would use running backs this season. Pollard started the game, but Spears played right away and the splits were fairly even. They were the only backs to play with the starters and were used on both all downs and in the red zone. Spears scored the touchdown.

The touchdown and the tension of snaps with starters help Spears' ADP increase and Pollard's ADP naturally decreases. It's not common to use two backs on all downs. But again, Pollard and Spears are very similar and that type of usage would work well and allow the Titans to use a hot-hand approach.

They rise and fall in Mine rankings? No, but there is a valid reason.

Let the record show that I aggressively ranked Spears at RB26 before the Week 1 preseason game. My view for this backfield was that Spears would pass Pollard and draft him if a borderline RB2 was warranted. The preseason exit doesn’t change how I view Spears. However, Pollard will not drop in my rankings. A 1A/1B backfield was expected.

But Pollard looked excellent on Saturday with four carries for 31 yards and a long of 24. If this is a true split backfield of two talented backs, then low-end RB2/high-end RB3 is justified for both players, and that's exactly where I have them both ranked.

RISER: Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans

The rankings of the Texans receiving corps are one of the great mysteries of 2024. Nico Collins was WR6 in Half-PPR last year and is the highest-ranked Texans receiver in Yahoo's Expert Rankings. The ranking seems like a steal for a player who had a breakout year with nearly 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns.

Dell is currently the lowest-ranked Texans receiver, but he’s still drafted in the first six rounds. That’s not surprising. Dell is the least experienced, having played in just 11 games overall, but only nine at full health. Volatility, durability and uncertainty within the Texans receiver corps are legitimate concerns with Dell as the likely WR3. This week’s preseason game confirmed that notion.

The Texans starters played just six snaps. Of those snaps, Collins and Stefon Diggs played all six, while Dell played just four. However, Dell caught C.J. Stroud's lone touchdown, a 34-yard bomb. That highlight alone will boost Dell's ADP.

*Fantasy managers should note that Collins also saw a slight increase in ADP and Diggs saw a slight decrease.

Is he rising in Mine rankings? A tiny bit.

Dell's upside is undeniable, but it's hard to rank him significantly higher. There's some play in his placement, and I could potentially put him ahead of his teammate Diggs. But it's hard to rank him ahead of guys with high upside who are clear WR1s on their teams, and even their respective teams themselves are a bit pathetic.

FALLS: Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Moss was inactive for the Week 1 preseason game, leading many to wonder if his absence was an indication of his position on the depth chart. However, the Bengals clarified that Moss was battling an illness. We'll have to wait until Week 2 for clarification on the splits between Moss and Chase Brown, but Moss' drop in ADP isn't just the result of a Week 1 absence. Reports out of training camp on Brown have been overwhelmingly positive, with some reporters suggesting that Brown appears to be the Bengals' RB1.

With Moss out, Brown was the Bengals' only running back to play with the starters, and he played all 13 snaps with Joe Burrow. This is crucial because no back rotated in on third down. Moss' absence makes it difficult to say for sure, but it would at least indicate that Brown is a reliable third-down back for the starters. Moss would be hard to trust if he wasn't a three-down back.

Is he falling in? Mine rankings? Not yet, BUT

Brown was already ahead of Moss in my rankings because of his potential value through the air. While Joe Mixon had plenty of chances on the goal line during his career as a Bengal, his receiving upside is what really boosted his value as a top-12 back. I won't drop Moss in the rankings until I see the actual distribution of this backfield.

If this is a real commission, Moss will drop in my rankings.

FALLER: Tua Tagovailoa

How do you drop in the rankings on your day? out?!

Miami sat its starters this weekend, but Tua’s ADP dips slightly. And while Tua doesn’t fit the theme of unclear positions on their teams, his ADP is the most significant drop of any quarterback outside of Justin Herbert, who we discussed last week. I wanted to include Tua because I expect the drop to continue throughout the preseason.

Tua is the most natural leapfrog quarterback prospect. As rookie quarterbacks continue to emerge, he will struggle to hold onto his position. Tua has significant upside but has struggled against tough defenses and the stigma should stick with him in 2024. When matched up against tough defenses, Tua’s lack of rushing upside makes his floor look pretty ugly. With rookies like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams and even JJ McCarthy offering live arms, talented receiving corps and rushing upside, Tua still won’t be attractive and will drop in ADP.

Is he falling in? Mine rankings? YES hard pass.

While I have every confidence that Tua will shine throughout the season, I absolutely want nothing to do with his playoff schedule: Houston, San Francisco and Cleveland, PLUS Week 14 against the Jets.

Because I know Tua is not available long term, that he will fall during the pre-season and be replaced by emerging quarterbacks.