Breaking down the 2024 Big Ten football race into groups from best to worst

By Pat Harty

IOWA CITY, Iowa – The 2024 Big Ten football race is now starting to split into groups of teams that range from very good to very bad.

From the surging Buckeyes to the plummeting Boilermakers, the conference's 18 teams are a diverse group with dominance in some cases and dysfunctional in others.

Not surprisingly, Ohio State tops the list after outscoring its first four opponents 195-27, including a 38-7 victory at Michigan State last Saturday.

The Buckeyes' next game on Saturday is a 3-1 bye week at Iowa. The game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, where Iowa has won just twice since 1960, the most recent in 1991.

Right now, Ohio State appears to be part of a self-contained group, but these groups are obviously subject to change and will change.

Here's a look at each of the six groups the 18 Big Ten teams currently reside in, from best to worst:

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Elite: Ohio State (4-0).

Potentially elitist: Oregon (4-0), Penn State (4-0).

Potential playoff team: Iowa (3-1), Michigan (4-1), USC (3-1).

Bowl-bound or better: Indiana (5-0), Rutgers (4-0), Illinois (4-1), Nebraska (4-1).

Average to below average: Wisconsin (3-2), Maryland (3-2), Michigan State (3-2), Minnesota (2-3), Washington (3-2), Northwestern 2-2).

Well below average: Purdue (1-3), UCLA (1-3).

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Indiana and Rutgers, with records of 5-0 and 4-0 respectively, are shaping up to be two of the biggest stories in this year's race, but in Indiana's case, perhaps we should have seen it coming as new head coach Curt Cignetti , certainly gave ample warning that something special would happen in Bloomington with his arrival.

Cignetti has been supremely confident since he was hired to rebuild the Hoosier program; some might even say he has been a bit arrogant and brash with his rhetoric.

But so far his team has been able to keep their mouths shut.

Last December, and just 48 hours after Cignetti was announced as Indiana's next head football coach, he was addressing Hoosier fans during a timeout of an Indiana men's basketball game when he shared this message board material.

“I've never put anyone in the background,” Cignetti said. “Purdue sucks… and so does Michigan and Ohio State.”

Indiana is Cignetti's fourth head coaching job, and he won big in his previous three head coaching jobs at James Madison, Elon and IUP.

He also brought some players from James Madison, and it paid off.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 for the first time since 1967, which is also the last time Indiana won a Big Ten title and played in the Rose Bowl.

Rutgers, meanwhile, is 4-0 and continues to show improvement in Greg Schiano's second stint as head coach.

It was tempting to put Indiana and Rutgers in the group of potential playoff teams along with Iowa, Michigan and USC, but it's still too early to make that leap of faith.

Iowa, and of course Michigan and USC, still have a slight edge and are given the benefit of the doubt over Indiana and Rutgers, mainly because of tradition and staying power.

Indiana and Rutgers are clearly headed in the right direction, as are 4-1 Nebraska and 4-1 Illinois, but it's still too early to anoint either of them, or say they've arrived.

There's also a chance that Iowa is overrated as a potential playoff team, but until someone slows down Kaleb Johnson and the Iowa running game, which is averaging 250.3 yards per game, it seems fair to have Iowa in that group.

Frankly, Michigan may be more concerned about fouls than Iowa, which is hard to believe considering where both fouls occurred just a year ago.

And speaking of concerns, Wisconsin has more than its share under second-year head coach Luke Fickell, including dealing with its backup quarterback and not being nearly as dominant in the trenches as it was under Barry Alvarez.

Bret Bielema coached some good teams at Wisconsin, and now the former Iowa defensive lineman and assistant coach has Illinois on the rise.

We should find out more about Iowa and Ohio State when they meet on Saturday.

Iowa has won 10 games in three seasons since 2019. But against elite competition, Iowa largely fell short, including last season when it was outscored 92-0 with losses to Penn State, (31-0), Michigan (26-0). ) and Tennessee (35-0).

Iowa could make a statement Saturday without actually winning the game.

If Iowa were to keep the score close to Ohio State and then win its final seven conference games, all of which are winnable on paper, that would give Iowa a 10-2 record and a serious shot at making the 12-team playoffs with the only victory. another loss to Iowa State.

Hawkeye fans have to hope the Cyclones (4-0) don't fall apart, because the better they finish, the better Iowa's 20-19 loss looks for them on paper.

The problem with Iowa State having too much success, however, is that it could ultimately come at Iowa's expense from a playoff selection perspective.

When you watch teams like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan State and Purdue compete, you appreciate Iowa's resilience and endurance under Kirk Ferentz.

Rarely are his Iowa teams elite, but they are also rarely below average.

Iowa hasn't had a losing season since 2012, and only twice since 2001 has Iowa had a losing season, the other time in 2006.

Nebraska was a superpower for more than three decades, but for much of the past decade it was irrelevant on the big stage.

The Big Ten currently has three of the five worst Power 4 offenses nationally, but Iowa isn't one of them, which is a tribute to new offensive coordinator Tim Lester.

The Iowa passing game still leaves a lot to be desired, but the running game has helped statistically lift the much-maligned Iowa offense from the bottom where it languished the past two seasons.

UCLA ranks as the lowest at No. 127, followed by Northwestern (122) and Wisconsin (107).

Iowa will play all three of these teams over a three-week period from October 22 to November 8.

And yes, all three games will be outright wins for Iowa.