RJ Young
FOX Sports National College Football Analyst
Being the number 4 ranked team in this year's 12 team College football Playoff doesn't look like a desirable spot.
That's one of the overarching conclusions I came to when I examined my first set of CFP rankings for this season. Through five weeks of action, in which the SEC and Big Ten have proven to be in a league of their own when it comes to conference supremacy, all signs point to the No. 4 team in the CFP being a member of the ACC or Big 12. From what my predictions look like right now, it certainly seems like you'd rather be the No. 5 team in the rankings than the No. 4 team.
As a No. 5 seed, you not only become the first team to host a playoff game in college football history, but you also get the opportunity to play on a neutral site against the weakest Power 4 conference champion. If you win that game, you'll earn entry to the semifinals, where you'll likely see the No. 1 team in the country, but after they're forced to play a game.
Remember, this year's field will consist of the top five conference champions, as well as the next seven highest-ranked overall programs. The top four conference champions will receive a bye in the opening round, while the fifth conference champion will then be seeded based on the CFP rankings.
While the top four conference champions bid their farewells, the teams ranked 5th through 8th will have the luxury of hosting a playoff game. Then, both the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played at former New Years Six bowl game venues, with the national champion to be decided on January 20 in Atlanta.
Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's get to my first set of CFP projections for the 2024 college football season:
1. Alabama
Conference: SEC
File: 4-0
2. State of Ohio
Conference: Big Ten
File: 4-0
3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
File: 5-0
4. The state of Iowa
Conference: Big 12
File: 4-0
5. Texas
Conference: SEC
File: 5-0
6. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
File: 4-0
7. Georgia
Conference: SEC
File: 3-1
8. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
File: 4-0
9. Clemson
Conference: ACC
File: 3-1
10. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
File: 4-0
11. Missouri
Conference: SEC
File: 4-0
12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
File: 3-1
Now that we have the projected seeding set, let's take a look at what the first round matchups would look like:
1. Alabama: Bye (then plays the winner of Penn State vs. Clemson)
2. Ohio State: Bye (then plays the winner of Georgia vs. Oregon)
3. Miami: Bye (then plays the winner of Tennessee vs. Missouri)
4. Iowa State: Bye (then plays the winner of Boise State vs. Texas)
5. Texas (second place in the SEC Championship) vs. Boise State (highest ranked Group of 5 champion)
This game could feature the nation's best tailback in Ashton Jeanty, who is on pace to rush for more than 2,500 yards and 39 touchdowns this season. Jeanty and the Broncos can face what already looks like the best Texas team we've seen since 2009, and that's saying something after Steve Sarkisian led the Longhorns to their first Big 12 Conference title in 14 years and last year for first appeared in the CFP.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is on pace to rush for more than 2,500 yards for the Broncos this season. (Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images)
6. Tennessee (one of the top 12 teams) vs. 11. Missouri (one of the top 12 teams)
Missouri is undefeated with a win against a top 25 opponent, while Tennessee has two top 25 wins. The fact that this could be a conference game every year underscores how dominant the SEC is in the sport.
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has helped the Volunteers to a perfect 4-0 record this season. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
7. Georgia (one of the top 12 teams) vs. 10. Oregon (one of the top 12 teams)
The last time Dan Lanning faced his former boss, the Ducks were embarrassed 49-3 in Atlanta. But that turned out to be a game that set the stage for the run Oregon has been on since, with back-to-back 10-win seasons. Lanning would love the opportunity to go back to the state of Georgia and show how far this program has come.
Carson Beck has led Georgia to a 3-1 record heading into Week 6 of the college football season. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
8. Penn State (second place in the Big Ten Championship) vs. 9. Clemson (second place in the ACC Championship)
Picture this: Penn States' first CFP game would take place at Beaver Stadium, against a coach and program that knows what it takes to not only make the CFP, but win the national title twice in the CFP era.
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has led the Tigers to a 3-1 start. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The number one college football show.'Follow him @RJ_Young And subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.
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