Sports
Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch analyzes the Michigan States football game at Oregon, Friday, 9:05 PM (ET). Television: Fox. Betting line: Oregon -23.5
1. Can MSU's improving offense spark Oregon offense?
MSU should enter this game knowing it can move the ball against Oregon. A Spartan offense that looked out of place and stumped in the opener against Florida Atlantic has since proven its ability to both move the sticks and strike with big plays. Doing this against Maryland and Boston College is one thing. If you do it against Ohio State, that's pretty good proof that you can do it against anyone. MSU's first four possessions against Buckeyes seven plays for 55 yards, five for 64, one play for 12 yards that was a touchdown and nine for 59 were all fluid and creative drives that made MSU look like a threat to the Buckeyes. Things fizzled from there. But there's no reason to back down against Oregon, which has experience, size, depth and talent on defense, but none more so than Ohio State.
2. Nick Marsh's health
One certainty after five games is that MSU freshman receiver Nick Marsh will make a difference. When he barely played against Florida Atlantic, the offense went nowhere. When he broke out at Maryland, MSU won largely because of his connection with quarterback Aidan Chiles. When he was out against Boston College, Chiles and Co. still capable and had their moments, but his absence diminished MSU's offense. And last week, after barely practicing for two weeks, he was used sparingly against the Buckeyes but caught perhaps the best throw of the season from Chiles from 80 feet, one of his two catches on the only drive he played.
Marsh gives this MSU offense a different gear. He is a big, fast target whose abilities will likely show up in opposing scouting reports. That should provide opportunities for MSU's other offensive weapons. And if he's still a bit under the radar at the moment, all the better for MSU's offense. The Spartans need more from Marsh in this game if they want a chance to upset Oregon.
3. Production without turnover
MSU's 13 lost turnovers is more than all but two of the 133 teams playing college football at the FBS level. That's five fumbles and eight interceptions from Aidan Chiles in five weeks. MSU turned it over three times last week, twice as the Spartans approached the end zone. You can't overcome those kinds of things against teams of this quality, especially in the environment the Spartans will face in Oregon. Chiles is a playmaker and part of being that kind of quarterback is taking risks, but there is a line he has to learn to walk. In that regard, he was actually better against Ohio State than he was against Boston College. Only one turnover last week was his fault. Chiles doesn't have to be perfect to beat Oregon. But his mistakes cannot be costly.
4. Can MSU's defensive front get after Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel?
The story of the first two weeks of the season in Oregon was the story of the first two weeks of the season in Oregon Ducks offensive line struggles with uninspiring home wins against Idaho and Boise State, although Boise State looks like a very good team this season. Since then, Oregon has found a group up front that is more solid. But MSU will test that in ways that UCLA and Oregon State couldn't. The Spartans' defensive front line and linebackers were among the surprises of the season. Ohio State was the first team to keep most of MSU's pressure at bay. I don't know that Oregon will have the same success in keeping quarterback Dillon Gabriel's pocket clean. If MSU doesn't win this particular battle on a somewhat regular basis, I don't think the Spartans can win the game.
RELATED: Couch: Michigan State vs. Oregon has been a meaningful and important series for MSU football
5. The Oregon connection factor
First-year MSU head coach Jonathan Smith downplayed his personal relationship with Oregon as a rival and rival since he was in college at Oregon State. But if you're an MSU fan, you know how you feel about Michigan. You know how Mark Dantonio focused his feelings about the Wolverines on that rivalry. Oregon State has many of the same feelings toward Oregon. There's no way this isn't personal to some extent for Smith and some of his staff and players who came with him. Former Spartan Derrick Harmon will also be on Oregon's defensive line. There's going to be some extra spice to this thing. I don't know how much it matters, but it's not nothing.
MORE: Couch: After the loss to Ohio State, the MSU football team should expect a lot of themselves in Oregon
Prediction
I think MSU can be competitive in this game and, if the Spartans' defensive front is better than Oregon's offensive line, maybe push the Ducks to the brink, provided MSU also reduces its turnovers. It's just hard to imagine MSU winning at Autzen Stadium against an Oregon team that, while not as impressive as some predicted, is still probably one of the top 15 teams in the country. I don't know if MSU is ready to beat that kind of team on its home court. But I'll also be surprised if this isn't a little closer than last week's loss to the Buckeyes.
Make it: Oregon 33, MSU 16
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
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