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Predicting the five automatic College Football Playoff qualifiers one month into the season

 


Time flies when you're watching football. At least, I think that's how the saying goes. Now that we're a month into the college football season, it's time to take a look at how the College Football Playoff could play out. Five conferences send automatic qualifiers to the 12-team tournament. So which teams are best positioned to win their conferences and be ranked high enough to earn an automatic bid? Let's see.

ACC Clemson

The ACC currently has three undefeated teams: Miami (Fla.), Pitt and Duke. The last of that group, Duke, currently has perhaps the best chance to win the conference, with a road trip to Miami on the horizon. I'll give Miami the nod and rank the Hurricanes over the Blue Devils in that game.

Pitt is undefeated, but the Panthers host Clemson and visit Louisville in back-to-back weeks. I doubt the Panthers will come out of this unscathed. About the Cardinals: Yes, they are ranked and undefeated in conference play, but they still play Clemson, Pitt, Miami and Boston College. Louisville probably won't win the ACC.

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That leaves Miami. However, we can't forget the top-25 team, Clemson. The Tigers get Louisville at home and make a road trip to Pitt. Miami's toughest game on the schedule will be a road trip to Louisville. I think even if either program loses a game, they will still meet as the top two teams in the conference championship game.

When they meet in Charlotte, I'll give the edge to Clemson, a team that is averaging 55 points per game since its season-opening loss to Georgia. I like how the Tigers have responded to the adversity to start the year, and I think Cade Klubnik and his team will have plenty of momentum entering the ACC title game and come away with a win.

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Big Ten Ohio State

Ohio State has not yet been challenged in a game this year. While that will likely change with future road trips to Oregon and Penn State, I'll have to see the most talented roster in college football get pushed before I say they'll lose.

The Buckeyes also have Indiana and Michigan finishing the season at home, but Indiana could be in for a letdown after playing the Wolverines the week before and Ohio State has a legitimate quarterback; Not Michigan.

Oregon and Penn State are my top contenders to face the Buckeyes in the conference title game, but I think Ohio State's top three defense in the FBS will put all the pressure on Drew Allar, something the Nittany Lions would like to avoid . The Ducks have the best chance to knock off the Buckeyes, but Oregon's early season struggles cast doubt on their ability to knock off an elite opponent.

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Big 12 state Iowa

The Big 12 is the most open conference in college football with a shot at a CFP berth. BYU and Iowa State are undefeated, Colorado has two of the top-10 players in the country, Kansas State and Utah can't be counted out, Texas Tech is 2-0 in conference play and Arizona was a preseason top-25 team. So who is the pick to win the conference?

I'm going with Iowa State. I think the Cyclones will remain undefeated in November with an October schedule featuring Baylor, West Virginia and UCF. Iowa State begins November after a bye week with Texas Tech, a favorable setup for the Cyclones. Then there's nothing I've seen from Kansas or Cincinnati this year that would make me believe Iowa State can't start the season 10-0.

Iowa State's two toughest games will come at the end of the season, when it visits Utah before hosting Kansas State in the season finale. Fortunately for the Cyclones, they may only need to win one of those games to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Iowa State has the best chance to make the Big 12 title game, so they are my pick to win the conference.

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SECTexas

Let's take the top contenders for the SEC title and break them down one by one.

Texas A&M is undefeated in conference play, but the Aggies lost to Notre Dame and beat Bowling Green by just six points. Let's be realistic here.

Georgia just lost to Alabama and is still visiting Texas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs finish with two conference losses and will miss the title game.

LSU still plays Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Arkansas. That's a gauntlet where I think the Tigers win three of those games.

Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky. If the Rebels let that slide, how can you trust them in big games, or even in the SEC title game if they win?

Missouri, while undefeated, played close games with Boston College and Vanderbilt. Yes, both programs are exceeding expectations this year, but the SEC's elite team should not doubt their greatness against these two schools. Missouri's schedule could see them make the CFP, but I don't think their conference record will be good enough for a title game appearance.

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Alabama showed a lot in the win over Georgia. The Tide almost missed that game, too. I think those late-game mistakes are a sign that there are holes in the armor in Alabama. That's why I have them losing to the next SEC team on this list.

Tennessee gets Alabama at home. I think the Vols, backed by one of the most balanced, yet explosive offenses in the country, are holding back the tide. From there, the only other tough game is a road trip to Georgia, but if Alabama can light up the Bulldog secondary, so can Josh Heupel and crew. The Volunteers make the SEC title game.

I like that Texas finishes the SEC regular season undefeated. The Longhorns showed that this team, whether it was with Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning, could rise up around the quarterback to hold its own.

A battle of orange UTs in the SEC championship. Texas vs. Tennessee. I'm going with Texas to win this one. The Longhorns showed they can stop the run when they played Michigan, and I think Ewers will be able to keep up with a one-dimensional Tennessee offensive attack.

SEC CLASSIC:No. 4 Alabama stops the comeback of No. 2 Georgia and wins 41-34

Mountain West Boise State

I think Boise State gets the last spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos have the best offensive skill position in the country in running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is a Heisman candidate who puts up numbers reminiscent of Barry Sanders. He is the engine that makes Boise State run and he shows no signs of slowing down.

As a team, Boise State played Oregon in a three-point game, so the Broncos will be tested. Even if there's a road trip to UNLV coming up, I'll still pick Boise State because they have the best player on the field in that game and every game they'll play the rest of the year.

Sources

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2/ https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-10-03/predicting-5-college-football-playoff-automatic-qualifiers-one-month-season

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