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What we learned about the College Football Playoff race after the wildest week of the season yet

What we learned about the College Football Playoff race after the wildest week of the season yet
What we learned about the College Football Playoff race after the wildest week of the season yet

 


In college football, there's no hiding in October. You may be able to talk your way through September, but when the calendar turns, everyone can see you for better or worse.

Thanks to the 12-team College Football Playoff, no one will be eliminated in Week 6, but a lot was revealed Saturday when four teams in the top 11 of the AP poll lost to unranked opponents, none more shocking than No. 1 Alabama.

The SEC had not one but two huge setbacks that left only one undefeated team in the conference with more than half of the season left to play.

So you lost to Vandy. What now?

There is no history to look at to judge how a team can lose to Vanderbilt and then bounce back to win a national championship. The Commodores had never beaten a team ranked in the AP top five. They were 0-60.

This is a brand new world for college football, post-Nick Saban, post-four-team Playoff. And the Crimson Tide pulled off perhaps the most improbable back-to-back results imaginable, beating Georgia and then losing to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984. Led by elusive quarterback Diego Pavia, Clark Leas Commodores defeated the top-ranked Tide. , 40-35.

Alabama's defense has been seriously leaking since taking a 28-0 lead against Georgia early in the second quarter. The Crimson Tide couldn't get stops when it needed them, and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack will likely be the main character on The Paul Finebaum Show next Monday as Alabama fans lament the kind of loss that had become unthinkable under Saban.

Sabans teams went 123-4 against unranked teams. Kalen DeBoers Tide is now 3-1 against them.

Where does Alabama go from here? Immediately home to a South Carolina team that has dropped its last two SEC games, including a 27-3 loss at home to No. 12 Ole Miss on Saturday.

In the Austin Mocks model, Alabama's chances of making the Playoff dropped from 94 percent to 81 percent. We can play the schedule and try to predict the rest of the season for the Tide, but a team that can beat Georgia and lose to Vandy, even a pretty good Vandy team, has proven that anything is possible.

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Kalen DeBoer's Alabama is mortal in a way Nick Saban's never was

Drop down

Most Saturdays, No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas would be the headliner, but when Vanderbilt beats Alabama, everyone is playing for second place.

The Vols demise wasn't nearly as stunning, but make no mistake, it's a big deal.

The conversation surrounding Tennessee as it rose in the rankings in the first month of the season was whether the Volunteers could be included among the elite SEC national title contenders with Georgia, Alabama and Texas. Now that whole concept of an elite level has been destroyed.

Take the early-season AP rankings with plenty of grains of salt, but just a few weeks ago the SEC had six of the top seven teams in the rankings, including Mississippi and Missouri. Of that group, only Texas has not taken an L in the past two weeks.

Shakeup Saturday started with No. 9 Missouri exposed to a 41-10 loss at No. 25 Texas A&M. That was the only game of the day that matched the ranked teams.

Reminder: There are no boring college football Saturdays.

Austin Mock's SEC odds

Team

Play-off bid

SEC title

92%

39%

82%

18%

81%

12%

58%

8%

44%

7%

28%

9%

14%

3%

4%

1%

4%

3%

By the time Razorbacks fans stormed the field as Tennessee's beloved Rocky Top blared through the stadium, the Aggies' emphatic victory was an afterthought.

Much of the talk going into this first year of an expanded Playoff and new super conferences has been about adjusting the standard of a successful season. Should we now be prepared for an SEC champion with two or even three losses in the regular season?

The idea that the SEC would gobble up big bids and fill half the CFP bracket now seems like folly. In The AthleticsThe projections have Tennessee dropping to a 44 percent chance of making the Playoff, Missouri is down just 4 percent and Texas A&M is up to 28 percent.

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2024 College Football Playoff Projections: How Did Week 6's Chaos Change Things?

The Big Ten game of the year has been announced

No. No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Oregon both took care of business this weekend to set up a monster game next Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

The Buckeyes offense took a half to get going against Iowa, but once they stopped turning the ball over, Jeremiah Smith and company got to 35-7.

It was a similar story in Eugene, Ore., on Friday night, when Dillon Gabriel gave away a pair of first-half scoring chances against Michigan State, but the Ducks were shutout until the backups came in in the fourth quarter of a 31-game . 10 win.

Feel free to quibble about the competition, but the Buckeyes are absolutely as advertised. The Ducks appear to have discovered their offensive line problems. If not, find out next week against Ohio State edge rusher Jack Sawyer and the Silver Bullets.

The top tier of the Big Ten appears to be separating, with Penn State looking like the other serious Playoff contender. The Nittany Lions followed a similar script as the Buckeyes and Ducks, slowly smothering UCLA 27-11. Their 85 percent chance of making the Playoff trails only Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Miami in Mocks' model, with Penn State as the sixth seed.

But it was a tough weekend for the next level of teams in the Big Ten. In their first road game, No. 10 Michigan (4-2) took its second loss, with their third quarterback. Do you have all that? Washington (4-2) won the national championship rematch 27-17 after back-to-back losses, full of red zone failures, against Washington State and Rutgers.

No. 11 USC (4-2) fell to 1-2 in its new conference and suffered another last-minute loss in the Midwest. This time it was Minnesota that couldn't keep the Trojans out of the end zone on fourth down.

Then again, maybe we were looking in the wrong place for the Big Tens' second tier.

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Morales: USC isn't ready to compete against the Big Ten heavyweights

Emerging Contenders

Another October tradition in college football is for teams that fall lower or outside the rankings to become legitimate contenders. For example, last year, Louisville did not enter the rankings until October 1, and Missouri did not finally enter the rankings until October 15.

The Cardinals ultimately played for an ACC title, finishing 19th in the country. The Tigers went 11-2 and finished in ninth place. In a twelve-team play-off, both teams would have been in the thick of it until Saturday's championship.

So who should we pay attention to?

The ACC appears ripe for a surprise team or two, even after No. 8 Miami narrowly avoided becoming the fourth top-10 team to lose to an unranked team, edging past Cal on Saturday night in Berkeley. Pitt (5-0) is the only other undefeated team left in the ACC after Alabama transfer quarterback Eli Holstein posted his fourth 300-yard passing game of the season at North Carolina's expense. And what about SMU, now 5-1 and 2-0 in the league after knocking off No. 22 Louisville? The Mustangs seemed primed for their move into power conference football.

In the Big 12, the only remaining undefeated are No. 16 BYU, notably the only team to beat SMU and No. 17 Iowa State. Both started the season unranked.

In the SEC, Texas A&M is now 5-1 under first-year coach Mike Elko with one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country, led by Nic Scourton.

We have a growth mindset, Elko told reporters. We try to grow every day.

Another beneficiary of the Aggies' five-game winning streak is No. 14 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will need a few big wins to burnish their resume, which was tarnished by their home loss to Northern Illinois.

Back in the Big Ten, it's time to talk about Indiana. Not only is first-year coach Curt Cignetti's squad 6-0, but the team has won every game by at least 14 points and has scored at least 40 points in each of the last five. The Hoosiers are off next week before hosting Nebraska on Oct. 19 in one of the biggest games Bloomington has ever hosted. Also of note: Indiana won't play Oregon or Penn State, but will have Michigan at home and an open date before heading to Ohio State in November.

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Where Vandy over Alabama is one of the #1 upsets of all time

Army-Navy squared

Army is in its first season in the American Athletic Conference, joining rival Navy in competition for the first time in more than two decades.

However, the Army-Navy game is a non-conference game that will, as usual, be played the week after the conference championship games are played and the CFP field is set.

What can go wrong?

The Black Knights and Midshipmen are 10-0 overall, with Army (4-0 in conference play) holding a half-game lead for first place in the AAC over Navy (3-0).

Both service academies have yet to play Notre Dame. Coincidentally, both games are set in the New York metropolitan area.

But if you're wondering, the answer is yes: Army and Navy can play back-to-back weekends in December, first for a conference title with possible playoff implications, and then at FedEx Field, without any impact on the CFP.

(Photo: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5821623/2024/10/06/college-football-playoff-race-upsets-rankings/

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