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SP+ predicts No. 11 BYU football at UCF, predicts three-team race for Big 12 title

SP+ predicts No. 11 BYU football at UCF, predicts three-team race for Big 12 title

 


Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program will hit the road this weekend to take on the UCF Knights. The Cougars and Knights last played each other in 2020 in the Boca Raton Bowl. This will be the first meeting between these two teams as conference foes. BYU and UCF joined the Big 12 in 2023 alongside Cincinnati and Houston.

The Cougars want to remain undefeated, possibly crack the top 10 and stay in the lead for the Big 12 conference title. UCF, on the other hand, is desperate for a win after losing four straight games.

SP+, founded by ESPN's Bill Connelly, confirmed its prediction for BYU-UCF. SP+ gives BYU a 58% chance to win with an expected final score of 30-26. SP+ is more optimistic about BYU's chances than either ESPN FPI or oddsmakers. FPI only gives BYU a 45.5% chance of winning and oddsmakers currently favor UCF by 1.5 points.

In an article about each Power Four conference and their title contenders, Bill Connelly broke down the Big 12 championship race. According to SP+, Iowa State has the best chance to win the Big 12 with BYU right behind the Cyclones. At this point in the season, it looks like a three-way race between Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State.

Iowa State – 30.1% chance to win the Big 12
BYU – 28.2% chance to win the Big 12
Kansas State – 26.7% chance to win the Big 12

These three teams have an 85% chance of winning the conference. Other outside contenders include Colorado (5.4%) and Cincinnati (4.5%), Texas Tech (1.9%) and TCU (1.8%).

If Colorado beats Cincinnati this weekend, the Buffaloes will have a legitimate chance to win and make a run in the title game.

BYU has the best win in conference play over Kansas State. That win could come in handy if BYU finds itself in a tiebreaker scenario with Kansas State.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.si.com/college/byu/football/sp-predicts-no-11-byu-football-at-ucf-forecasts-three-team-race-for-big-12-title

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