College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction After Week 11: What to Do About Indiana?

Two top-five teams lost just days after the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season were released, so there should be a Top 25 shakeup by the second-ranked selection committee on Tuesday night. How much they change after losing Georgia and Miami is the question.

My College Football Playoff Projection Model predicts what the committee is likely to do with its rankings each week. Last week my projected rankings counted 24 of the top 25 teams (the only unranked team was Missouri, which I had 26th), so I did a pretty good job of identifying the Top 25. What about the precision? The model predicted the rankings of all top 17 teams within two places. The first big miss came when Clemson and Army were projected at 18th and 19th, respectively, while the committee had them at 23rd and 25th. In total, 22 of the 25 teams were within two spots, 16 within one spot and nine were exactly right, including seven of the top 12.

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2024 College Football Playoff Projections: Will Miami and Georgia Make it After Losses?

This is a new week and a new test as teams will move with a group at the top. So let's try again to predict what the committee will do with the rankings.

Projected CFP Top 25 after week 11

Rk	Team	File	SOS	AP poll
1		10-0	51	1
2		8-1	35	2
3		8-1	17	4
4		8-1	80	3
5		10-0	81	5
6		8-1	70	6
7		9-0	54	7
8		8-1	56	8
9		7-2	3	9
10		8-2	39	10
11		7-2	1	11
12		9-1	68	12
13		8-1	65	14
14		7-2	21	15
15		8-1	85	13
16		7-2	47	17
17		7-2	41	20
18		7-2	52	18
19		9-0	132	16
20		8-1	93	19
21		6-3	7	21
22		6-3	5	23
23		6-3	13	22
24		7-2	32	24
25		7-2	60	NO

Next five: Arizona State, Pitt, Tulane, UNLV, Illinois

Biggest question: How will Indiana be evaluated?

Indiana just got a win over Michigan, easily one of the best wins of the season, but also the closest. For the first time in 10 games, the Hoosiers won by single digits, holding on to win 20-15 despite having just 18 yards of offense in the second half. Indiana has already crashed the AP top five for the first time since 1967. It is 10-0 for the first time ever and will be in the mix for a top five ranking on Tuesday after finishing eighth in last week's CFP rankings. The reason they're not a surefire top-five team is because their strong schedule, by my projections, ranks 81st. How much will that matter?

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Why No. 8 Indiana is the ultimate test case of the 12-team College Football Playoff

The Hoosiers Playoff positioning will ultimately be determined by how they perform against Ohio State in Columbus on Nov. 23 after being inactive this week. If that's a competitive game, you can almost guarantee the Hoosiers a spot in the CFP. But if it's a blow, some think they don't have the resume to earn or guarantee a big offer. And while I won't defend their schedule strength, I don't think enough attention is being paid to some of the other CFP candidates.

My projections have Texas playing the 80th toughest schedule and Tennessee the 70th. Now there are some differences in the strength of the schedule stats from different sources, but Tennessee's best win is Alabama and the next best win is arguably Kentucky (and lost to Arkansas). Texas' best win is probably Vanderbilt or Michigan.

Indiana will likely finish the season with the easiest schedule among the contenders, but I don't think it's as egregious as some say. A good performance against Ohio State should give the Hoosiers not only a Playoff bid, but a chance to host a first-round game.

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Indiana outpaces Michigan to reach 10 wins, likely Playoff, and wants more: What is this world?

What the 12-team bracket would look like

The bracket below is based on the selection committee's expected rankings for November 11. Find my forecasts for the final bracket here.

(Photo by Curt Cignetti: Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

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