Broncos enter 'Thursday Night Football' tilt, with Chargers looking to win division and clinch a postseason berth

CAN PAT SURTAIN II CONTINUE HIS LOCKDOWN GAME?

One possible reason for the Chargers' offensive success against the Broncos in Week 6? No Pat Surtain II.

The All-Pro cornerback suffered an injury on the first drive of the game and the Chargers took advantage. This time around, the very talented Surtain will look to limit quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers' passing game.

According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain has allowed an average of 2.4 catches and 20.3 yards in his seven career games against the Chargers, and has yet to allow a touchdown as the closest man in coverage. Surtain has a pair of interceptions on Herbert, including a pick-six in their first meeting in Denver in 2021.

Surtain has allowed the fewest yards per target (4.9) of all NFL cornerbacks with at least 40 targets this year, which explains why he isn't targeted often. He is tied for the fewest targets in the NFL among cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage snaps, and he has targeted just 11.7 percent of his coverage snaps against the Chargers since 2022.

Whether Surtain is guarding an impressive rookie in Ladd McConkey or the Chargers' leader in receiving touchdowns in Quentin Johnston, he could take a big chunk of Los Angeles' offense out of the game. And if he does, it could be good news for Denver's defense.

CAN THE BRONCOS' PASS RUSH GET JUSTIN HERBERT?

In the Broncos' Week 6 loss to the Chargers, Herbert was sacked just once in the first half as Los Angeles built a 20–0 halftime lead. Denver got to Herbert twice more in the second half, as the unit held LA to three points in the second half, and the Broncos may have to turn up the pressure again.

Herbert enters Week 16 with a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he posted 11 consecutive starts without an interception before that streak was snapped in Week 15 against Tampa Bay. The Oregon product hasn't thrown an interception against a divisional opponent since Week 14 last season, when outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper picked him off in a win at Denver. Herbert is actually on track to lead the NFL in interception percentage, as just 0.5 percent of his passes have been picked off this season.

How can the Broncos force the talented quarterback to turn the ball over? It could come from pressure, as Denver has the most sacks in the NFL entering Week 16. Denver also has the second-highest pressure rate (38.6) and blitz rate (38.4) in the NFL, and the Chargers allow the ninth-worst pressure rate. (45.8) vs. blitzes in the NFL. Herbert has been pressured on 71 dropbacks by blitzes this year, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL.

The Broncos are currently on pace to be just the fifth team to lead the NFL in scoring defense and sacks in the same season, and all three previous AFC teams to do so advanced to at least the AFC Championship Game. If Denver can finish strong and capture the title of scoring defense, it would become only the second in franchise history to do so, joining the 1989 unit.

If the Vance Joseph-led group can force Herbert into mistakes, the Broncos are able to rack up the fourth-most interceptions and win the turnover battle, Denver could get lucky. The Broncos are 9-1 this season in forcing a takeaway, and 7-0 in winning the turnover battle. By comparison, Denver has yet to win in the four games in which it lost the turnover battle this season. However, the Chargers rank fourth in the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin.

“Part of this game is understanding how to win and how not to beat yourself or keep yourself from winning,” Payton said Tuesday. “I think that will be very important.”

CAN DENVER EARN PRIORITY IN THE HURRY BATTLE?

When the Chargers got to Denver, they ran past the Broncos. Led by JK Dobbins' 96 rushing yards, the Chargers put up 128 rushing yards, including 69 in the first half against the Broncos.

Los Angeles' first offense exceeded the 120-yard mark six times in the Chargers' first ten games, and the group also passed the 150-yard mark three times. However, the Chargers' rushing attack hasn't been the same since Dobbins was placed on injured reserve in late November.

The Chargers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their last four games, which is the longest streak in Jim Harbaugh's career as an NFL or FBS head coach, according to Next Gen Stats. Los Angeles has averaged just 18 carries per game since Week 12, which is the fewest in the NFL, and the Chargers carried the ball just 11 times for 32 yards in Week 15 versus the Bucs. That output is the lowest in carries and rush yards of any Harbaugh team in his NFL career as a head coach. Los Angeles has been led by Gus Edwards in each of the last three games, but he has thrown for less than 40 yards in each of those games.

If Denver's fifth-ranked rushing defense, which allows the second-fewest yards per carry, can stifle a struggling Chargers' run game, it could tilt the game in Denver's favor.

The Broncos will obviously look to get their own run game going in Los Angeles. Denver will be without Jaleel McLaughlin, who was ruled out with a quad injury, which could mean more work for rookie Audric Estime. Denver has recorded fewer than 100 rushing yards in three of its last five games, and the Broncos coaching staff is looking closely at ways to find more success.

“I would say there are some looks that we need to be better at, compared to when we're playing a certain play against some tough looks, where you don't really have the leverage right now,” Payton said Monday. “We have to do better as coaches, starting with me, and come up with solutions when the looks aren't what you practice. Overall, I think this is an area where we are right now with three weeks left in the season that we have to find more consistency there.”

While the Chargers' defense ranks first in the league in points allowed, the unit has given up 200 rushing yards in two of the last four games, including 223 yards on Sunday against Tampa Bay.

If Denver can gain an edge on the ground by limiting the Chargers and getting its own run game going, it could help determine which team can create long drives, control the field position game and ultimately win the game.