Ranking upset odds for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will a road team win?

The Hoosiers aren't just an offensive juggernaut: They've allowed just 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while giving up just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up just 13.6 points per game (third-best), limiting opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.

Bettors have taken a long time to like Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been somewhat lucky in turning points into wins, and Notre Dame has been somewhat unlucky (as in two points away from being undefeated).

One signal favors the Hoosiers: Through Dec. 16, 56 percent of bets and 63 percent of money wagered on this game were on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can't find much to trump the statistical evidence that there is a difference of just more than a touchdown between these teams.

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Chance of upset: 25 percent

Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much bigger divide in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. This is especially true in the Simple rating system (SRS) ratings, with the Buckeyes being the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers being the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still gives the Vols only a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.

However, there are reasons to believe the numbers undervalue Tennessee. That's mainly due to the Vols defense. According to Sharp Footballs Defensive Beta_rank advanced statistics, Tennessee has the eighth-best defense in the country. The Vols allowed only two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came on a kickoff return in the opening game). They held Alabama to 17 points in a win in October, and the Crimson Tide happens to rank ninth in Sharps' offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.

It's also worth noting that Ohio State's offense has gone against strong defenses at times. The Buckeyes scored just 20 points against Penn States' 14th-ranked unit and infamously managed just 10 points against Michigan's 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored more than 30 against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.

But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus on Saturday night. Ohio State's defense is even better than Tennessee's (No. 2 in Sharps Ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round matchup, meaning there's more chance of a pesky underdog hanging around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and sits right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn't ultimately lead to an outright Tennessee win, that game script could favor Vols +7.5, as well as the under .

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Chance of upset: 22.8 percent

You know, those people in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of ​​what they're doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, meaning the implied odds of winning are 23.5 percent. This corresponds to the chance that our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).

Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor their Texas profile as a favorite do much to shift those odds. Clemson is in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven't exactly underperformed or shown a huge ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only have the Longhorns been extremely consistent (seventh in the country with the lowest variability), but they've also been unlucky (82nd in luck). So they may even be better than their record indicates.

But rather than end with some misguided joke about how Syracuse would be a nicer member of the ACC in the CFP than Clemson, let's use this game to consider a truly astonishing probability. If Texas gets past Clemson, we estimate there is about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would beat Arizona State. That means the odds of Texas making it to the Playoff semifinals are about two in three.

Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance of beating Ohio State?

The biggest lesson from the way the CFP matchups are shaping up is that Texas No. 5-slot is the most beautiful spot in the field. Even if the Ducks hold on to a bye, you'd rather be Texas than Oregon right now.

(Illustration by Will Tullos; Kevin Jennings photo: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; Kurtis Rourke photo: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Dylan Sampson photo: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)