Schlossman: A deep dive into the UND hockey team's first half – Grand Forks Herald

GRAND FORKS UND opened the season with a convincing victory over Providence in the USA Hockey Hall of Fame Game and a thrilling third-period comeback victory at Minnesota State.

It then fell into a rut, going 3-6 in a nine-game span before closing with a 6-1-1 record in its last eight.

Injuries were an important theme in the first half.

UND lost its only upperclassman on defense, junior Bennett Zmolek, to a season-ending injury after one game.

It lost first-line center Cameron Berg for twelve games and captain Louis Jamernik V for six. The Fighting Hawks dealt with months of injuries to defenseman Andrew Strathmann, defenseman Tanner Komzak and forward Cody Croal. It also lost defenseman Caleb MacDonald for three games.

The injuries forced UND to move Dane Montgomery to defense in coverage.

UND came into the Christmas break with an 11-7-1 record and 6-2 in the National Collegiate Hockey Conference.

In NCHC play, the Fighting Hawks are in a great spot. They are in a position to clinch a fifth Penrose Cup in six years, further cementing themselves as the team to beat in the competition. They trail leader Western Michigan by just two points with two-thirds of the conference season left to play.

As far as the NCAA tournament goes, UND has a lot of work to do. It sits 22nd in the Pairwise Rankings and needs to climb at least to No. 15 to have a shot at the Fargo Regional and in turn the NCAA Frozen Four.

Splitting the rest of the way won't help.

UND will likely need to go 10-6 or better to be in the top 15 when the league playoffs begin.

That's the CliffsNotes version of UND's first half of the season.

But the Christmas break provides an opportunity to take a deeper look at UND's season so far.

What is UND doing well? What needs to be improved? What do the statistics and advanced analyzes say? Are the Fighting Hawks ready for a second half surge? Will they fade over time?

Here's a look at the numbers.

There are a lot of good indicators for UND.

In fact, most stats and analysis say UND is better than its 11-7-1 record.

UND has defeated its opponent in 13 games this season. Only four shots were fired. It resulted in shots twice.

When tracking the quality of the opportunities, the results are also strong.

One way to measure that is through expected goals, a metric that tracks the location and type of each shot attempt and assigns a value to it going in.

SportLogic also tracks expected goals percentage.

If you are expected to score the exact number of goals as your opponent, your percentage is 50%. Not surprisingly, the highest-ranked teams fare well in this category.

The No. 1 state of Michigan ranks fourth nationally with 63%. Number 2 Boston College is in second place (64.7%). Number 3 Minnesota is in first place (67.2%).

UND is at 56.2%, which ranks third in the NCHC and 13th nationally.

This number may be skewed based on competition. If you played a simple scheme, you will probably generate a much higher percentage than your opponents. But that wasn't the case for UND.

The Fighting Hawks played a challenging non-conference schedule. Several of UND's opponents in the first half rank well in this category: Denver (No. 5), Cornell (No. 10), Minnesota State (No. 15), Providence (No. 17).

UND has had an even-strong expected goal advantage in 15 of 19 games this season.

It won one game in which it trailed in the series opener at Minnesota State. The Fighting Hawks trailed 2-0 late in the second period in that game when Mavericks forward Adam Eisele was ejected for contact with the Major. UND scored twice on the big power play and then won it on a Carter Wilkie goal.

UND lost three games in which it had an even xG advantage: the series finale against Boston University, the series finale at Cornell and the series opener at Bemidji State.

UND also had an expected goal advantage in their only tie against Bemidji State.

Denver is the only NCHC team to have had an even-strength xG advantage in more games than UND.

UND's possession numbers are also solid. The Fighting Hawks are ranked No. 13 nationally in Corsi, where shot attempts are tracked.

UND has one player per point.

It's Berg, who has missed more than half the season.

Instead of having a big line, UND has achieved the best scoring depth in the NCHC.

The Fighting Hawks have eight players averaging 0.6 points per game, tied for the majority in the NCHC. They have 10 players averaging half a point per game, the most in the league.

They have 13 players averaging 0.4 points per game and 16 averaging 0.3 points per game. Both are the best in the league.

Injuries to key players helped torpedo the first halves for Minnesota Duluth (5-10, No. 41 Pairwise Rankings) and Omaha (7-9, No. 47 Pairwise). The Bulldogs missed Max Plante for ten games and the Mavericks are without Tanner Ludtke for a long time.

UND has survived his injuries because of his better scoring depth.

UND's power play has ranked in the top 10 nationally the past two seasons.

But Riese Gaber and Jackson Blake controlled those units.

Gaber (19) and Blake (11) combined for 30 power-play goals over the past two seasons. Last season, Berg led UND with nine power-play goals.

Despite Gaber and Blake moving to the pros and Berg suffering an injury, the Fighting Hawks are buzzing on the power play.

They stand at 27.6 percent and rank fifth nationally.

Berg, Sacha Boisvert, Jayden Perron and defenseman Abram Wiebe lead the team with three power play goals each. Jackson Kunz has two. Mac Swanson and Jamernik have one.

Assistant coach Karl Goehring, who leads the power play, continues to view the opponents differently. But Goehring will have to make a decision when Berg returns. Boisvert has found success shooting from the right flank and Swanson has been dangerous controlling the other unit as a setup man from there. That is also Berg's place. Something has to give.

While UND's five-on-five play was strong and the power play was elite, its biggest problems were on the penalty kill.

The Fighting Hawks rank 43rd nationally at 77.8 percent.

A number of factors probably play a role here.

No. 1: Zmolek, UND's best penalty killer and the NCHC's best shot blocker, suffered a season-ending injury after one game.

His presence was missed in almost every area: his shot blocking, his ability to take opponents in front of the net out of the goaltender's sightlines, his play along the end wall that leads to breakaways and his strength to move pucks anywhere in the zone to get rid of.

Other injuries have affected that unit.

UND has lost Berg as an option to win faceoffs at the start of penalty kicks. It lost Jamernik and Croal, who are among the team's most useful penalty killers.

As UND slowly returns to health, the numbers have slowly improved. In the last seven games, UND is at 85.7%.

The penalty kill is where goaltender TJ Semptimphelter's numbers have also suffered.

Semptimphelter has a .931 save percentage at even strength and a .781 shorthanded.

It is by far the largest difference between even-strength and short save percentages of any goal in the league (.150). The next closest is Arizona State's Luke Pavicich (.073).

UND discipline hasn't been bad.

With 9.4 penalty minutes per game, the Fighting Hawks rank No. 34 nationally, which is near the median. But there is probably room for improvement. UND ranked sixth nationally with fewest penalty minutes per game last season.

UND coach Brad Berry has emphasized several times this season his desire to play games 5-on-5, despite his team's strength on the power play.

The statistics explain why he wants that.

The Fighting Hawks have generated better scoring chances than their opponents at even strength almost every night, and one of their biggest strengths is depth scoring.

Special teams celebrations can take the fourth line out of the game. UND would prefer to play a game where both teams throw all fours.

Taking fewer penalties could go a long way. It would presumably increase Semptimphelter's save rate. If UND imposes penalties, it must be more efficient at killing them.

UND already appears to have had positive results following Croal's return to the lineup. Getting Berg and Jamernik healthy again should also play a role.

With young players emerging and veterans getting healthy again, there is a lot of promise for the second half.

But UND's schedule is even tougher.

It's over for Miami, which seems to be on its way to ninth place in the league.

There are four games remaining against NCHC leader Western Michigan and tough road trips to Denver and Arizona State, where first-stringer Cruz Lucius is expected to be back.

The tough schedule gives UND an opportunity to rise in the Pairwise Rankings, which is the first priority if UND wants to achieve its ultimate goal of hoisting a trophy at the NCAA Frozen Four in St. Louis.

Eric Hylden/Grand Forks Herald