College Football Playoff Prediction: Why Texas Can Overcome Inconsistencies and Win the National Championship

When Texas announced plans to join the SEC, the Longhorns immediately embarked on a 5-7 season in 2021 that was historic for all the wrong reasons. Since that moment, Texas has truly brought itself back from the brink and now stands alone as the only SEC team left in the First 12 College football Play-off.

On paper, the Longhorns are the highest-ranked team left in the field as the third-ranked team and fifth-seeded in the series. Texas narrowly beat out No. 4 and sixth-seeded Penn State for the honor. Either way, Vegas is bearish on their chances, putting them ahead of heavy favorite Ohio State and even Notre Dame. The Longhorns are 6-point underdogs against the 8-seed Buckeyes, despite playing in their home state of Texas for the Cotton Bowl.

Granted, Texas certainly didn't look like a national champion during a dual win against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. But since the 2023 season, the Longhorns have continued to win. A little skepticism is justified, but the Texas Longhorns don't need to fly under the radar to the semifinals.

This is why Texas still has a very serious chance to win the College Football Playoff, led by the defensive playmakers who have carried the team.

1. Stifling defense

For all of Texas coach Steve Sarkisian's praise as an offensive wizard, the defense has carried the team. The Longhorns rank third nationally in total defense, allowing just 4.28 yards per play. The number matches Michigan's 2023 national championship defense, and the Longhorns are even more disruptive against the pass.

Texas allows a league-leading 5.5 yards per pass attempt and 166.1 passing yards per game total. Even more astonishing is that the Longhorns have allowed just eight touchdown passes and picked up 21 interceptions. Versatile defensive back Jahdae Barron is the best of the bunch and lined up all over the field en route to winning the Thorpe Award. Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba were also All-SEC performers.

While the secondary is elite, the front seven may be even better. Linebacker Anthony Hill led the way with 107 tackles, 16 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles. Four different players cleared 10 tackles for loss and five sacks, including true freshman Colin Simmons. There is no individual place to stop; the Longhorns come from everywhere.

Texas held six of its eight SEC opponents to 17 points or fewer. Arizona State reached 500 yards against the 'Horns, but it took double overtime and 97 offensive plays. From front to back, this might be the best defense in the country. Ohio State certainly presents a unique challenge, but Texas presents its own unique challenge for the Buckeyes. It goes both ways.

2. Depth of the offensive line

For most of the season, Texas has leaned on its talented offensive line to find consistent success on offense. Right tackle Cameron Williams did not play in the Peach Bowl win against Arizona State, but is moving forward and will get a chance to see action on Friday. But more importantly, Texas may have the most complete offensive line in the playoffs.

Left tackle Kelvin Banks is a superstar and was unanimously named an All-American after a stellar three-year career in Austin. He allowed just one sack against Georgia all year, and gave up just nine pressures. Center Jake Majors is a proven commodity and has been a big impact player both as a blocker and as a leader on the roster.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Longhorns have the best pass-blocking grade as a unit in college football at 89.4. More importantly, the unit is moving along while other lines in the CFP are struggling with injuries. Notre Dame lost two projected starters to injuries during the season. Two of Ohio State's top three starters went out.

If Texas wants to win the national championship, it must survive the onslaught of Ohio State defensive stars Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau. If they win, Abdul Carter, Howard Cross or Dani Davis-Sutton will be waiting in the wings. Fortunately, they are as well positioned as anyone to run a drop-back passing game, thanks to the sheer ability of their offensive line.

3. Stable quarterback

Facing fourth-and-13 with a season on the line against Arizona State, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers delivered the biggest moments of his career. Ewers turned on a protection and went over the defense for a historic 28-yard touchdown to force double overtime. On his next throw, he found tight end Gunner Helm for a 25-yard touchdown that ultimately proved to be the game winner.

“There were some moving parts where Quinn had to change the protection of the game and he did that,” Sarkisian said after the game. 'He has brought us maximum protection. But even then there were some complexities in dealing with the pressure as it came in; there were layers to that whole thing.”

For much of the season, the focus has been on what Ewers can't do compared to high-profile backup Arch Manning. But at this point in the College Football Playoff, no remaining quarterback has more talent and experience than Ewers.

The junior has thrown for more than 8,800 yards and 66 touchdowns in his productive career. Over the past two seasons, Ewers was 21-4 as the starting quarterback with the Longhorns' first Big 12 title since 2009. In the biggest moments, Ewers earns our trust above all other signal callers on the field. And besides, he still radiates talent. Ewers was rated as the No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2021 for good reason.