Sports
College football SP+ rankings move into CFP championship game
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Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer
Ohio State enters the national title game as a projected 5.9-point favorite over Notre Dame, according to updated SP+ ratings. That's quite a difference from Ohio State's opening line ESPN BET -9.5, although it doesn't take into account Notre Dame's increasing injury problems. (SP+ is not designed to respond to injuries.)
The Fighting Irish have overcome injuries with relative ease all season, but the sportsbooks appear to be reacting to a few new injuries on the offensive line:
ESPN Betting Projection: Ohio State 27.5, Notre Dame 18.0 (OSU -9.5, over/under 45.5)
SP+ projection: Ohio State 27.6, Notre Dame 21.7
Somehow, though, the Buckeyes are the favorites. After their 28-14 win over Texas in the Cotton Bowl semifinals, they rank first in defensive SP+ (2.8 points ahead of No. 2) and third in offensive SP+ (up from ninth place at the start of the College Football Playoff). Notre Dame has quite a bit to overcome to score its first national title in 36 years.
Below you will find this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it is a pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its statistics has grown, I've made quite a few adjustments to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and future-oriented. It's not a resume ranking that honors big wins or particularly courageous planning; that is not a good predictive system at all. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you get lucky or don't impress in a win, your rating will likely drop. If you are strong and unlucky with a loss, it will probably rise.
More about the GVB:
Connelly's semi-final takeaways (E+)
What's next for eliminated teams? (E+)
First, look at the title game
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