Best tennis bets for men's action on January 17

Today's tennis picks and predictions for day 6 of the Australian Open 2025:

The Australian Open 2025 has already given us some nice matches, but the best is yet to come. The world's best ATP players are in Melbourne for the first major of the season, and we're not far from the part of the tournament where household names feature in every match. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite picks for Day 6 of the men's side matches, which will be played on Thursday, January 16 and Friday, January 17 for those of us in the United States. On this day guys like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are in action, so you don't want to miss these matches. Also check out my two best bets for women.

I also strongly encourage you to come back to this story before the matches start, or check the picks page regularly. I try to write down as many matches as possible in advance, but that is difficult in an international sport. I occasionally see some interesting line movements and add them to my map a few hours before the matches start. That said, I'll be adding picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I'll also post them at the bottom of these articles afterward. Gill Alexander, who does great work in handicap tennis A numbers game (M-F from 10:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET), also posts his tennis picks on the picks page!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are deploying!

2025 Record: 53-41 (+10.03 units)

Tomas Machac vs. Novak Djokovic

Ever since I saw the draw, I've been targeting a Machac game against Djokovic, and the way I do that is by looking at his individual game totals and sprinkling the moneyline. Machac has proven that he is a high-level talent, and he did just that with a great performance during the Asian swing last year. In Japan, the 24-year-old defeated Alexei Popyrin, Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen before falling in a thrilling match to Ugo Humbert. He then defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in Shanghai before going down swinging against Jannik Sinner in the final. The Italian won that match 6-4, 7-5. But Machac looked the part of a top player and held his own very well. Now he wants to build a career year in 2025.

Machac's biggest weakness right now is his conditioning, but it sounds like he's done his best to work on that in the short offseason. Cramps have forced him out of action several times in recent years, and it's certainly something to keep an eye on heading into a match with Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has made a living by grabbing his opponents' legs and then stabbing them when they are at their weakest. But if Machac can get through this without any trouble, there's a real chance he could cause Djokovic some problems.

The Serbian simply hasn't looked that convincing this season. We saw him lose to Reilly Opelka in Brisbane, and he has dropped sets against both Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria in Melbourne. Well, Machac is a much better player than those two guys. He's a better mover, he's a better server and he has more explosive groundstrokes. And I'm especially interested in the backhand exchanges between these two. Machac can absolutely bomb shots from that wing, so he won't be afraid to trade backhands with Djokovic, even though the Serbian has one of the best backhands in the history of the sport.

I just don't see a path to a convincing Djokovic victory. I expect the legend to start something this season, but at the moment he lacks finishing power. It was quite a struggle to get the ball to his opponents. Well, Machac has the ability to punch winners.

I also can't help but think that this is somewhat similar to the Joao Fonseca-Andrey Rublev and Jakub Mensik-Casper Ruud matches. Machac takes a look at an elite opponent who happens to be out of shape. That means a chance to really break out and get people to notice you and not just notice how short your shorts are.

Bet: Machac over 16.5 games won (-110 – 1.5 units) & Machac ML (+320 – 0.25 units)

RELATED: Check out my two women's best bets for Day 6 at the Australian Open!

Jacob Fearnley vs. Alexander Zverev

Zverev absolutely smoked Pedro Martinez in his last match, so I was way off in taking the Over there. However, it still feels like Zverev isn't quite playing the type of tennis he played last year. Martinez had some openings in that match, but he put too much pressure on himself. It was certainly not a performance where Zverev had his A-game. Of course there is nothing wrong with that. He has a fairly easy draw, so he can find his way back to form and find the right equipment late in the tournament. However, the right opponent can certainly make him sweat a little more than Lucas Pouille and Martinez. And Fearnley could be that type of opponent.

From a weapons perspective, Zverev's serve and backhand will be the most dangerous shots on the court. However, Fearnley is a smart player and knows how to handle himself in matches. So look for the Brit to do everything he can to attack the Zverev with the forehand. And when Zverev gives him short balls, Fearnley is able to put them away. He's a good counter-puncher, but he's not a pusher. Fearnley can get aggressive and look very sharp when playing aggressive tennis. He chooses his spots very well. Fearnley is also solid when it comes to serving, so he can hold guard if Zverev remains somewhat passive as a returner.

As I've said before, I don't think Zverev is in any danger of actually losing a match until much later in this tournament. But that doesn't mean he's going to beat everyone in straight sets. So all odds being equal I'll take a shot at Fearnley to push him to four. Fearnley is arguably a top 50 player on tour, and he's being priced like he's lucky to be in the Top 100. I see him as a profitable player that we can support in the coming months.

Bet: Fearnley to win a set (+100)

Added plays

I can't guarantee there will be more choices here, but there's always a chance I might add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I recommend checking the Pro Picks page every few hours. I'll add my extra plays there and then throw them into this story.

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