2025 National Championship Predictions, Odds: Ohio State-Notre Dame picks for College Football Playoff

There is only one game left in what has been the longest college football season in history, which started way back on August 24, 2024, when Georgia Tech upset then-No. 10 Florida State 24-21 in Ireland. That Week 0 game set the tone for what would become a season full of surprises.

Now, almost five months later, (7) Notre Dame and (8) Ohio State will face off in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Atlanta. It's hard to argue that either team doesn't deserve to be in this match. Notre Dame had to knock out Indiana, Georgia and Penn State to get to this point; The state of Ohio has conquered Tennessee, Oregon and Texas.

They've proven all year long to be two of the best teams in the country, despite all of them having a “huh!?” loss on their resume. But only one can take home the national title. A quick look at the spread suggests Ohio State is the heavy favorite to do this, but are the Buckeyes the best choice? Let's break down the spread, the total and a few props for Monday night's clash between two of the greatest programs in college football history.

National Championship: (7) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State

Spread

One of the biggest factors of the expanded College Football Playoff is injuries. With teams being asked to play more games than ever before, injuries are a likely outcome. After all, it is a collision sport and the more physical contact a player experiences, the greater the chance that an injury will occur. Notre Dame has had much worse injury luck than the Buckeyes in the playoffs. Both teams suffered injuries during the regular season, with Ohio State's offensive line hit particularly hard and Notre Dame suffering losses across the roster.

The losses haven't stopped for the Irish in the playoffs. Defensive tackle Rylie Mills was lost early, and two more offensive linemen went down in the win over Penn State, including left tackle Anthonie Knapp, who took over the starting gig before the season started when projected starter Charles Jagusah went down. Knapp has already been ruled out of the title game, but ironically Jagusah gets to start in his place!

Regardless, these injuries are just the latest in a long list for the Irish, making this match extremely difficult for them. Ohio State is arguably the most talented team in the country, and aside from the loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes have been excellent all season. They also took their game a step further in the play-offs. Their defensive line overwhelmed Tennessee, Oregon and Texas in consecutive weeks. While Tennessee's OL is questionable, both Oregon and Texas are two of the strongest in the country. Just like that of Notre Dame.

But if Notre Dame's offensive line is a patchwork right now, how confident can we be in holding up against an Ohio State front that's crushing teams?

Furthermore, while the Irish defense has been one of the best in the country all year, and the secondary defense has barely lost a step since losing stud Benjamin Morrison in mid-October, it's fair to say they haven't faced a offense comparable to that of the Irish defense. Ohio State unit they will see in Atlanta.

Finally, Ohio State's defense faced Tennessee (37.3 ppg in the regular season), Oregon (35.9 ppg) and Texas (33.6) in the first three rounds and held those teams to a total of 52 points (17.3 ppg). The Irish offense was more productive than all three (39.8 ppg), but it was also a heavily run-oriented unit, and I'm not too optimistic about how that run game matches up against Ohio State's defense (possibly the best in history). country) with a set up attack line. Notre Dame has overcome injuries all season, but if you're betting, it's hard to put your money on the Irish based on the information available. Choice: Ohio State -8

Total

We know my choice on the spread, but the truth is that in this game I have much more confidence in the total. And it's almost entirely for the same reasons I like to describe at Ohio State! I just don't know how many points we can realistically expect the Notre Dame offense to score. You get the sense that the Irish will have to find points on defense or on special teams (something they have been excellent at this season) to give themselves a chance.

Still, I don't know if Ohio State's offense will automatically light up Notre Dame's defense. Yes, it's a mess, and this could be the game where Notre Dame's defensive injuries can finally have a significant negative effect on it. But they've been so good and opportunistic all season that it seems foolish to think they can't slow down this Ohio State unit.

The Irish aren't that different from Texas' defense, and we saw the Longhorns have a lot of success. Let's not forget that they essentially removed Jeremiah Smith from the scene, and one of Ohio State's touchdowns came on defense. If you're hoping for a high-scoring shootout to end the year, you're probably going to be disappointed. Choice: under 46.5

Props

Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard (37.5 yards rushing): Leonard's legs are a big part of what Notre Dame does offensively, and they will remain so in this final game. After all, there is no reason to leave anything in the tank. There is no tomorrow. The problem is that, as we've already discussed, Notre Dame's offensive line is in shambles, and Ohio State's defensive front has been in flux lately. While the Buckeyes have given up some yards to rushing QBs this season, it's important to remember in college that sacks come from a QB's rushing yardage. In their three playoff games, Ohio State's defense has 16 sacks for a loss of 118 yards. Leonard recorded just 11 sacks in the regular season, but he has six in three playoff games. That has helped keep him under this total of 37.5 yards in two of the three games (Indiana and Penn State). Select: under

Ohio State TE Gee Scott (17.5 yards receiving): There's not much science behind it, it's quite simple. In the regular season, Gee Scott caught 16 passes for 150 yards. In three playoff games he has caught 10 passes for 99 yards, and in all three games he has had at least 30 yards. He's being included in the game plan a lot more now than before, and there's no reason to think that won't be the case again in this game. Notre Dame's secondary will focus its energy on Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. That should give Scott some opportunities, and he probably won't need more than two receptions to do so. Choice: over