Australian Open Predictions: Best Tennis Bets for Day 11

Tennis tips and predictions today for day 11 of the Australian Open 2025:

Day 11 of the 2025 Australian Open will feature some exciting matches. One of them will pit defending champion Jannik Sinner against Aussie Alex de Minaur in a quarter-final. We'll see some other tantalizing matchups at Melbourne Park, though, and I've got some best tennis bets for a few of them. Keep reading for my favorite tennis picks for both the men's and women's sides of the bracket.

I also strongly encourage you to come back to this story before the matches start, or check the picks page regularly. I try to write down as many matches as possible in advance, but that is difficult in an international sport. I occasionally see some interesting line movements and add them to my map a few hours before the matches start. That said, I'll be adding picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I'll also post them at the bottom of these articles afterward. Gill Alexander, who does great work in handicap tennis A numbers game (M-F from 10:00 AM ET to 12:00 PM ET), also posts his tennis picks on the picks page!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are deploying!

2025 Record: 58-51-1 (+3.12 units)

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ben Shelton

Sonego defeated Shelton 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 when the two met at Roland Garros in 2023. However, that match was played a long time ago. It was also played on Sonego's favorite surface. With things now moving to the hard court, I think we'll see the American win in four sets or less.

Sonego is one of the weakest returners on tour, as he is coming off a season in which he had a break rate of just 13.5%. It's just really hard to imagine him disrupting Shelton's serve, even if the Italian has looked slightly better in terms of ball recovery in 2025. Shelton should also be tested a bit more from the baseline here . The American is through to the quarter-finals after facing Brandon Nakashima, Pablo Carreno Busta, Lorenzo Musetti and Gael Monfils. He has had a much tougher fate than Sonego, who has defeated Stan Wawrinka, Joao Fonseca, Fabian Marozsan and Learner Tien.

Sonego has been fortunate to encounter players who simply cannot handle his talent or strength from the baseline. And the only player who could do that was Fonseca, but the teenager looked tired and nervous. Against Sonego he played the worst game he has played in weeks. Shelton probably won't. The American is much more talented than Sonego, but he also lives for big moments. Shelton has been to a Slam semifinal before, and he did so with fearless play and an unflappable attitude. I trust him a lot more in this place. I also think we'll see a tiebreak or two in this match, and Shelton's serve would give him a big lead over Sonego there.

The Shelton cross-court forehand into the Sonego backhand also looks like a very dangerous exchange for the Italian. I think Sonego will get crushed there, making him run around it quite often. But that gives Shelton a chance to find open space on the other side. This just feels like a match that should be over without much drama.

Bet: Shelton -1.5 sets (-141 – 1.5 units)

Alex de Minaur vs. Jannik Sinner

I would have liked to find a reason to support De Minaur in his home Slam, but this is a brutal match for him. In seven matches at tour level, Sinner is 7-0 against the Australian. And de Minaur has not won a set against Sinner since 2020. These two have also played two Davis Cup matches, with Sinner winning them both in straight sets. Sinner has also won a number of lopsided sets against de Minaur, including a 6-0 second set in their 2023 Davis Cup match.

There's just very little De Minaur can do to even throw Sinner onto a tennis court. The Australian is incredible at extending rallies and taking wins, but Sinner has no problem with longer rallies. And his average shots, or rally balls, are so heavy that they can move Minaur around a bit. The Italian is simply able to push De Minaur around without even having to swing big, something no one else on the ATP Tour can really do. Moreover, De Minaur cannot afford to simply wait for Sinner to make unnecessary mistakes, as the Italian rarely makes stupid mistakes.

Furthermore, Sinner is an elite server and returner. So while De Minaur is a great returner, he probably won't break the Italian that often. And while De Minaur has worked tirelessly on his serve, it isn't even good enough to stop Sinner from collecting breaks. In fact, the Australian will likely be under pressure for most of this match.

This just has the potential to be an extremely one-sided match, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sinner wins a set or two with a score of 6-2 or worse. I'm not too worried about Sinner's health either. He had some problems in his match against Holger Rune, but he suggested after the match that he wasn't feeling well in the morning. If he just wasn't feeling well, he'll be better by the time these two play.

Bet: Sinner -5.5 games (-161)

Emma Navarro vs….Iga Swaatek

For anyone who took my advice in my women's draw analysis and followed me on Swiatek to win quarter 4, I would suggest hedging a little bit. My other futures didn't go so well during this event, so this is more damage control. I would be surprised if Navarro actually causes Swiatek any problems, as the Pole really only struggles against big, powerful players who can speed up her process. Navarro really shouldn't be able to do that. However, I don't want to risk getting big into futures trading, so I'm taking a little Navarro action now. If Swiatek wins, I'll let my future Australian Open ride.

Hedge: Navarro ML (+900 – 0.25 units)

Plays added

PARLAY: Madison Keys +1.5 sets vs. Elina Svitolina & Ben Shelton ML vs. Lorenzo Sonego (-150 – 2 units) [Australian Open]

I can't guarantee there will be more choices here, but there's always a chance I might add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I recommend checking the Pro Picks page every few hours. I'll add my extra plays there and then throw them into this story.

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